The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[el sid]

Jurassic World Dominion, counted today for Thursday, June 9 (41 days to go):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 68 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 224 (25 (!) showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 16 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 11 (9 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 207 (17 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 510 (17 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.036.
Comps: TSS had with 19 days left 585 sold tickets also in 7 theaters
and FB 3 had with 15 days left 628 sold tickets in 7 theaters.

Jurassic World Dominion, counted today for Friday, June 10 (42 days to go):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 148 (9 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 95 (18 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 7 (13 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 2 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 12 (11 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 108 (18 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 366 (26 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 738.
Comps: TSS had with 20 days left 292 sold tickets in 7 theaters
and FB 3 had with 16 days left 356 sold tickets again in 7 theaters.

I have also no idea how to handle that long distance but the presale numbers so far seem to be fine.

 

And a very small Doctor Strange update: Counted today for Sunday, May 8 (9 days to go):
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 927 (17 showtimes)
Up pretty modest 5% since Wednesday. OTOH in this theater Doctor Strange has now reached 69.5% of the number NWH had on Monday of its release week (but it doesn't look THAT good in other theaters - I say that because I don't want to cause too high expectations).

PS: I have to do this now with Firefox, that's the only possibility to log in, and for this reason it looks so ugly.

Edited April 29, 2022 by el sid

[Krissykins]

 

This would be excellent for the film. A $95-130m 3 day. 
 

I’m expecting $50m. 

[Inceptionzq]

On 4/28/2022 at 4:53 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Strange 2 Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1739

3886

44.75%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1328

3859

34.41%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
8843	302	41737	21.19%	15	291

 

AMCs sold	5089
Cinemarks sold	1500
Regals sold	1282
Harkins sold	972

 

2.05x Batman T-7 (44.37M)

0.612x NWH T-7 (30.59M)

 

1.02x Batman Final (22.05M)

0.382x NWH Final (19.09M)

1.99x Eternals Final (18.87M)

2.19x Shang-Chi Final (19.29M)

1.39x Black Widow Final (18.35M)

Doctor Strange 2 Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1784

3886

45.91%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1384

3859

35.86%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
9204	361	41737	22.05%	15	291

 

AMCs sold	5271
Cinemarks sold	1574
Regals sold	1352
Harkins sold	1007

 

2.05x Batman T-6 (44.22M)

0.620x NWH T-6 (30.98M)

 

1.06x Batman Final (22.95M)

0.397x NWH Final (19.87M)

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 hours ago, el sid said:

Jurassic World Dominion, counted today for Thursday, June 9 (41 days to go):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 68 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 224 (25 (!) showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 16 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 11 (9 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 207 (17 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 510 (17 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.036.
Comps: TSS had with 19 days left 585 sold tickets also in 7 theaters
and FB 3 had with 15 days left 628 sold tickets in 7 theaters.

Jurassic World Dominion, counted today for Friday, June 10 (42 days to go):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 148 (9 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 95 (18 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 7 (13 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 2 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 12 (11 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 108 (18 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 366 (26 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 738.
Comps: TSS had with 20 days left 292 sold tickets in 7 theaters
and FB 3 had with 16 days left 356 sold tickets again in 7 theaters.

I have also no idea how to handle that long distance but the presale numbers so far seem to be fine.

 

And a very small Doctor Strange update: Counted today for Sunday, May 8 (9 days to go):
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 927 (17 showtimes)
Up pretty modest 5% since Wednesday. OTOH in this theater Doctor Strange has now reached 69.5% of the number NWH had on Monday of its release week (but it doesn't look THAT good in other theaters - I say that because I don't want to cause too high expectations).

PS: I have to do this now with Firefox, that's the only possibility to log in, and for this reason it looks so ugly.

You counted F9 right? Any chance of using that comp, or were those updates too close to release? 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Strange 2 Megaplex

 

T-7 Thursday(191 showings): 9937(+443)/47158

1.95x Batman T-7 (42.07M)

0.493x NWH T-7 (24.67M)

 

0.927x Batman Final (20.01M)

0.303x NWH Final (15.15M)

 

T-8 Friday(289 showings): 6105(+400)/73523

2.43x Batman T-8 (85.16M)

0.402x NWH T-8 (28.95M)

 

0.557x Batman Final (19.51M)

0.197x NWH Final (14.21M)

 

T-9 Saturday(292 showings): 3604(+206)/72730

2.68x Batman T-9 (116.00M)

0.405x NWH T-9 (29.93M)

 

0.329x Batman Final (14.21M)

0.118x NWH Final (8.71M)

 

T-10 Sunday(265 showings): 946(+96)/67700

3.12x Batman T-10 (106.59M)

0.444x NWH T-10 (28.50M)

Doctor Strange 2 Megaplex

 

T-6 Thursday(192 showings): 10529(+592)/47249

1.98x Batman T-6 (42.80M)

0.508x NWH T-6 (25.40M)

 

0.982x Batman Final (21.21M)

0.213x NWH Final (16.06M)

 

T-7 Friday(289 showings): 6631(+526)/73523

2.38x Batman T-7 (83.36M)

0.421x NWH T-7 (30.29M)

 

0.606x Batman Final (21.19M)

0.215x NWH Final (15.43M)

 

T-8 Saturday(292 showings): 3962(+358)/72730

2.64x Batman T-8 (114.26M)

0.417x NWH T-8 (30.79M)

 

0.361x Batman Final (15.62M)

0.130x NWH Final (9.58M)

 

T-9 Sunday(265 showings): 1031(+85)/67700

3.02x Batman T-9 (103.22M)

0.454x NWH T-9 (29.12M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 4/28/2022 at 5:09 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Strange 2 Drafthouse

 

T-7 Thursday(248 showings): 19371(+1037)/35172 ATP: $15.25

1.78x Batman T-7 (38.40M)

0.733x NWH T-7 (36.67M)

 

0.908x Batman Final (19.60M)

0.499x NWH Final (24.96M)

 

T-8 Friday(305 showings): 17402(+760)/44535 ATP: $15.07

1.61x Batman T-8 (56.36M)

0.728x NWH T-8 (52.38M)

 

0.602x Batman Final (21.06M)

0.408x NWH Final (29.34M)

 

T-9 Saturday(312 showings): 18191(+801)/45729 ATP: $14.52

1.69x Batman T-9 (73.00M)

0.772x NWH T-9 (57.05M)

 

0.523x Batman Final (22.64M)

0.362x NWH Final (26.72M)

 

T-10 Sunday(284 showings): 9499(+576)/41859 ATP: $14.28

1.95x Batman T-10 (66.62M)

0.756x NWH T-10 (48.50M)

 

Not gonna count Jurassic World until tomorrow. Probably at around the 24 hour of sales mark

Doctor Strange 2 Drafthouse

 

T-6 Thursday(248 showings): 20355(+984)/35172 ATP: $15.23

1.76x Batman T-6 (38.02M)

0.756x NWH T-6 (37.81M)

 

0.954x Batman Final (20.60M)

0.524x NWH Final (26.22M)

 

T-7 Friday(305 showings): 18519(+1117)/44535 ATP: $15.04

1.60x Batman T-7 (55.94M)

0.746x NWH T-7 (53.65M)

 

0.640x Batman Final (22.41M)

0.434x NWH Final (31.22M)

 

T-8 Saturday(312 showings): 19190(+999)/45729 ATP: $14.50

1.66x Batman T-8 (71.87M)

0.774x NWH T-8 (57.22M)

 

0.552x Batman Final (23.88M)

0.381x NWH Final (28.19M)

 

T-9 Sunday(284 showings): 10316(+817)/41859 ATP: $14.26

1.93x Batman T-9 (65.92M)

0.764x NWH T-9 (49.06M)

 

I was accidentally using the Batman Saturday number for the Batman T-X Friday comp so that comp was not actually near 70M yesterday. Also not sure why Drafthouse sales suddenly exploded over the past 2 days, but it's very impressive.

[ZeeSoh]

16 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Strange 2 Megaplex

 

T-6 Thursday(192 showings): 

1.98x Batman T-6 (42.80M)

 

T-7 Friday(289 showings): 

2.38x Batman T-7 (83.36M)

 

T-8 Saturday(292 showings): 

2.64x Batman T-8 (114.26M)

 

T-9 Sunday(265 showings): 

3.02x Batman T-9 (103.22M)

Watch out Endgame 

[XXR & Friends]

41 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

This would be excellent for the film. A $95-130m 3 day. 
 

I’m expecting $50m. 

 

Won't be that low, I can guarantee you that. I'd put the minimum at $75M.

[XXR & Friends]

13 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Watch out Endgame 

 

It's funny because those numbers are still lower than Endgame's actual total 

[keysersoze123]

I am not able to track anything the usual way but was anecdotally looking at thursday for JWD and I am not impressed at all. Its opening day sales are not anywhere in the ballpark of a mega opener. That said they startes PS so early that let us wait until final 2 weeks before guessing what it can do. 

[XXR & Friends]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am not able to track anything the usual way but was anecdotally looking at thursday for JWD and I am not impressed at all. Its opening day sales are not anywhere in the ballpark of a mega opener. That said they startes PS so early that let us wait until final 2 weeks before guessing what it can do. 

 

Long presales run + heavy walk-ups tend to make these films look weaker in tracking. I wouldn't be surprised if Thursday presales are 30-40% lower than The Batman even up until the the last few days but previews should be at least $20M nonetheless. 

Edited April 30, 2022 by MultiverseXXR

[Inceptionzq]

Jurassic World Dominion Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

171

2320

7.37%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

210

3250

6.46%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
760	N/A	24034	3.16%	15	147

 

AMCs sold	645
Cinemarks sold	48
Regals sold	36
Harkins sold	31

 

2.75x Ghostbusters Afterlife Day 2 (12.39M)

0.978x Eternals Day 2 (9.29M)

1.48x Shang-Chi Day 2 (13.01M)

0.963x Black Widow Day 2 (12.71M)

3.78x Fast 9 Day 2 (26.85M)

[Inceptionzq]

Jurassic World Dominion Megaplex

 

T-41 Thursday(89 showings): 429/30603

3.00x Ghostbusters Afterlife Day 2 (13.50M)

0.758x Eternals Day 2 (7.20M)

0.879x Shang-Chi Day 2 (7.74M)

 

T-42 Friday(148 showings): 260/43266

1.94x Ghostbusters Afterlife Day 2 (23.57M)

0.942x Eternals Day 2 (20.10M)

0.922x Shang-Chi Day 2 (19.09M)

 

T-43 Saturday(154 showings): 193/44830

2.80x Ghostbusters Afterlife Day 2 (46.03M)

1.16x Eternals Day 2 (27.98M)

 

T-44 Sunday(140 showings): 30/40350

2.73x Ghostbusters Afterlife Day 2 (29.81M)

0.435x Eternals Day 2 (7.10M)

 

Don't really got any good comps for this here

[Inceptionzq]

Jurassic World Dominion Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-41 Thursday(106 showings): 1908/16780 ATP: $14.33

1.42x Ghostbusters Afterlife Day 2 (6.39M)

 

T-42 Friday(163 showings): 1277/26922 ATP: $14.95

1.29x Ghostbusters Afterlife Day 2 (15.68M)

 

T-43 Saturday(168 showings): 1212/27831 ATP: $13.85

1.38x Ghostbusters Afterlife Day 2 (22.68M)

 

T-44 Sunday(131 showings): 438/22235 ATP: $13.29

1.20x Ghostbusters Afterlife Day 2 (13.10M)

 

Yeah don't read into these numbers. Probably not even worth posting comps

[Joyous Legion]

49 minutes ago, MultiverseXXR said:

 

It's funny because those numbers are still lower than Endgame's actual total 

Holy shit, Endgame made too much money

[BruiseCruise]

Never thought i'd see a world where the floor for Top Gun 2 OW is higher than new marvel origin films

[el sid]

1 hour ago, Menor Reborn said:

You counted F9 right? Any chance of using that comp, or were those updates too close to release? 

A wonder happened, I can log in with my new smartphone. Let's see how long this works, probably not very long so I try it now ^^.

 

I counted the last week of F9 and in SOME theaters before. I will use that numbers. F9 had on Monday of its release week 1.656 sold tickets. JWD will reach that number in - just my guess - 2 weeks. But the multiplier till the release date, no idea.

I mean, some films have to be summer hits and IMO it will be those with escapism.

Edited April 30, 2022 by el sid

[ZackM]

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	24	0	49	185	11
Seats Added	4,102	0	4,615	16,148	1,924
Seats Sold	12,346	12,413	11,086	10,485	5,611
4/29/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	430	7,448	365,715	1,220,695	29.96%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	4	62	318	825	1,442
ATP
$16.53

 

T-6 Comps:

1.66x - The Batman ($35.9M)

0.60x - Spider-Man: No Way Home ($30.2M)

 

T-6 ATP Weighted Comps:

1.48x - The Batman ($31.9M)

0.68x - Spider-Man: No Way Home ($34.0M)

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	353	30123	42680	12557	29.42%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

467

 

T-7 Comps - SOME COMPS BETTER THAN OTHERS EDITION

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH:	67.24		445	18674		0/325	20446/39120	47.74%		28183	44.56%		33.62m
Batsy:	242.32		206	5182		0/297	31608/36790	14.09%		11757	106.80%		52.34m

PRE-SALE NOTE: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness tickets have been on sale for twelve more days than No Way Home's tickets had been on sale at this point in pre-sales, and eight more days than The Batman's main showings had been on sale.

 

Multiverse of Madness has sold...

	Final Sold	% of Final	Est Gross
BW:	9196	136.55%	18.87
SC:	5847	214.76%	18.90
LTBC:	7712	162.82%	18.89
ET:	6409	195.93%	18.61
NWH:	28183	44.56%	22.28
Batsy:	11757	106.80%	23.07

 

Regal:     2781/11027  [25.22% sold]
Matinee:    840/4632  [18.13% | 6.69% of all tickets sold]

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	353	29617	42680	13063	30.61%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

506

 

T-6 Comps - SOME COMPS BETTER THAN OTHERS EDITION

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH:	67.92		559	19233		1/325	19887/39120	49.16%		28183	46.35%		33.96m
Batsy:	241.82		220	5402		0/297	31388/36790	14.68%		11757	111.11%		52.23m

PRE-SALE NOTE: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness tickets have been on sale for twelve more days than No Way Home's tickets had been on sale at this point in pre-sales, and eight more days than The Batman's main showings had been on sale.

 

Multiverse of Madness has sold...

	Final Sold	% of Final	Est Gross
BW:	9196	142.05%	19.63
SC:	5847	223.41%	19.66
LTBC:	7712	169.39%	19.65
ET:	6409	203.82%	19.36
NWH:	28183	46.35%	23.18
Batsy:	11757	111.11%	24.00

 

Regal:     2905/11027  [26.34% sold]
Matinee:    887/4632  [19.15% | 6.79% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Nothing_Stops_This_Train_DOT_GIF

[Porthos]

On 4/29/2022 at 12:22 AM, Porthos said:

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-42 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	158	21618	22333	715	3.20%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

715

 

Day 1 Comps

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9:	181.93		393	393		0/82	12755/13148	2.99%		4407	16.00%		13.53m
GBA:	359.30		199	199		0/104	15788/15987	1.24%		3034	23.57%		16.17m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World Dominion's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP***
JW3 = 1.00840x JW2 at the same sources of tracking at Day 1     [13.89m adj]
JW3 = 2.09418x KotM at the same sources of tracking at Day 1    [11.87m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

Regal:      101/5932  [1.70% sold]
Matinee:    21/1537  [1.37% | 2.94% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Not a bad day at all, all things considered.  Decided to punt all of the Marvel comps as they were either way too low (BW: 8.9m) or way too high (LTBC: 23.8m*). 

* Hush, @Brainbug the Dinosaur

 

But the rest of the comps look to be providing a good set of guideposts.  The major wild card being that this will have a little less then three more weeks of presales than most of these comps, so something to keep in mind.  All in all, a good start for something this far out that isn't gonna get the level of fan rush that either Marvel or SW is gonna get.

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-41 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	158	21395	22332	937	4.20%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

222

 

Day 2 Comps

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9:	198.94		78	471		0/92	13512/13983	3.37%		4407	20.97%		14.79m
GBA:	377.82		49	248		0/108	16447/16695	1.49%		3034	30.88%		17.00m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World Dominion's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP***
JW3 = 1.02581x JW2 at the same sources of tracking on Day 2 [14.13m adj]
JW3 = 2.38323x KotM at the same sources of tracking on Day 2 [13.51m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

Regal:     132/5932  [2.23% sold]
Matinee:    45/1537  [2.93% | 4.80% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Every single comp went up, and this is before the extra three weeks (or so) of pre-sales enters the picture.  Very nice start indeed.  This keeps up and I might climb aboard that 20m preview train I've seen boarding at the station.

 

PROGRAMMING NOTE:  Comps will be leaving the picture either tomorrow or Sunday, depending on mood.  Might decide to do a percentage of final of a couple of similar movies, though I'm not sure which ones yet.  Or might just "fly blind" for a while.  Suggestions welcome, though I don't promise to act on them.

Edited May 1, 2022 by Porthos