The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Menor the Destroyer]

Doesn't help that tickets dropped right when Strange hype started ramping up (as opposed to FK which didn't have any big upcoming release sucking up buzz at the time it's tickets went on sale). I am perfectly satisfied with the start so far but I won't read much into the sales for another 3-4 weeks or so. 

Edited May 2, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[charlie Jatinder]

25 minutes ago, Eric Strange said:

If you want to hear something positive, I think nearly 900 tickets in Philly and more than a thousand in Sacramento is very, very strong for a movie that's more than a month away. That's already well ahead of most films' final totals. So we're in a really good spot.

 

If that's still not enough, then I guess you'll have to just be patient for a few weeks and think about something else during that interim.

Hussh boy.

 

Don't make him feel good. Tell him it's gonna bomb. 🤷‍♂️

Edited May 2, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Mulder]

FK had awful pre-sales even right up to its OW and then ended up having strong walk-ups. Dominion'll repeat this and its sales are super far in advance. Business as usual for JW imo.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, Mulder said:

FK had awful pre-sales even right up to its OW and then ended up having strong walk-ups. Dominion'll repeat this and its sales are super far in advance. Business as usual for JW imo.

Hi @Mulder

 

As mentioned other day, nope it didn't. FK had very good sales.

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Hi @Mulder

 

As mentioned other day, nope it didn't. FK had very good sales.

The pretty infamous Incredibles 2 second weekend over FK OW club was made over FK's pre-sales not looking good. Like for most movies 80-90 in pre-sales'd look good, but for JW it looked weak.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

The pretty infamous Incredibles 2 second weekend over FK OW club was made over FK's pre-sales not looking good. Like for most movies 80-90 in pre-sales'd look good, but for JW it looked weak.

That was probably someone who had his hatred clouding judgement. If anyone looked actual sales they were quite good.

[Eric is Anxious]

13 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Hussh boy.

 

Don't make him feel good. Tell him it's gonna bomb. 🤷‍♂️

Look I don't want to deal with this "ITZ GONNA BOMB GAIZ" stuff for over a month. I need to set the record straight.

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

That was probably someone who had his hatred clouding judgement. If anyone looked actual sales they were quite good.

I'm too tired to go back and look but it was not just one person thinking the sales were on the weak end, I remember from my own checkings out of curiosity that they looked kind of weak for what ended up being a near 150 million OW.

[THUNDER BIRD]

9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Hussh boy.

 

Don't make him feel good. Tell him it's gonna bomb. 🤷‍♂️

It's not gonna bomb lol

 

I mean these movies are budgeted at 160-165 million. Dominion budget is just 165 million.

 

Just crossing Billion Dollars Gross is super profitable for Universal, anything over that is even better.

 

In comparison last few Fast & Furious movies are budgeted at 200-250 million.

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

I did a good read through that portion of the thread last week and FK's numbers in Sacto were pointing to a solid preview in the mid teens. A lot of the worry about its sales seemed to be due to the I2 explosion the week before making it look poor, along with people underestimating the IM.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, Mulder said:

I'm too tired to go back and look but it was not just one person thinking the sales were on the weak end, I remember from my own checkings out of curiosity that they looked kind of weak for what ended up being a near 150 million OW.

Sacramento was 55% of Black Panther a week out, before the ramp up begin.

That was ~$14m previews. DP2 comp being around $11.5M.

 

The two CBMs going low to mid 10s, was gonna give 15M or so preview easily and that's what it did 

 

 

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Sacramento was 55% of Black Panther a week out, before the ramp up begin.

That was ~$14m previews. DP2 comp being around $11.5M.

 

The two CBMs going low to mid 10s, was gonna give 15M or so preview easily and that's what it did 

 

 

The literal next page has people worrying about FK's presales lol. This was also before Porthos did comps the way he does now. Like now seeing these numbers people wouldn't think they're weak, but back then they did and the worries only intensified as time went on.

[XXR & Friends]

3 minutes ago, Mulder said:

This was also before Porthos did comps the way he does now.

So @Porthos is to blame! As usual 😒

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, Mulder said:

The literal next page has people worrying about FK's presales lol. This was also before Porthos did comps the way he does now. Like now seeing these numbers people wouldn't think they're weak, but back then they did and the worries only intensified as time went on.

Fair enough. I guess thread has evolved a lot since mid 2019.

[BruiseCruise]

Charlie, what is your early prediction for Top Gun 2?

[THUNDER BIRD]

Also Fallen Kingdom was Rotten when it released, that ought to have some effect.

 

Hopefully critics behave this time with Dominion. 

[Maggie]

27 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

Charlie, what is your early prediction for Top Gun 2?

I don't think @charlie Jatinder has any data. Tickets go on sale tomorrow

[el sid]

Doctor Strange 2, counted today for Sunday, May 8 (6 days to go):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 1.083 (17 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 660 (23 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 164+ (16 showtimes, still 2 Sell Outs reported)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 58 (13 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 86 (17 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 1.006 (27 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.194 (30 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 4.251+.
Jump till last Wednesday: 23.5%. I hoped for more.
Comps: NWH (260.1M OW) had on the same day, on Monday of its release week, 7.633 sold tickets. Means Doctor Strange reached 56% of NWH. I wish I could report a bigger increase.
But two things make things look a bit better: NWH sold from Monday to Wednesday „only“ about 1k tickets in my 7 theaters and maybe Doctor Strange can come closer till Wednesday percentage-wise.

And secondly NWH made 64.2M on Sunday = would be at the moment 36M on Sunday for Doctor Strange 2, not too bad.
The Batman (134.0M OW) had also on Monday of its release week 4.894 sold tickets for Friday. So Doctor Strange 2 is already close to that number (for a day which was - I guess - the way more popular day to buy tickets in advance than now a Sunday) and has 2 days left to overtake it.

Edited May 3, 2022 by el sid

[Porthos]

IMO the main worry about Fallen Kingdom's pre-sales was that it wasn't acting like a sequel to a 200m OW film when it came to the expected amount of front-loadedness when it came to early pre-sales.  That was my argument back then, and I was more or less proven to be wrong.  No, it didn't open to 200m again, but it did almost hit 150m OW, which I for one didn't see coming.

 

We can debate how good the pre-sales were in retrospect and just how much walkups there were 'till the cows come home.  But I don't think it's much of a stretch to say that films like the Jurassic World films just have a different pre-sale pattern than major CBMs or major SW films. 

 

As for this:

1 hour ago, MultiverseXXR said:

So @Porthos is to blame! As usual 😒

 

To be fair that was only the fifth film I had tracked at the seat level and the first non-CBM/non-SW film, so I was still a relative pup at the tracking game. 

 

(also it was 2018, Jat, but who's counting )

Edited May 2, 2022 by Porthos

[Porthos]

As for Top Gun: Maverick???

 

1 hour ago, Maggie said:

I don't think @charlie Jatinder has any data. Tickets go on sale tomorrow

 

Oh, that is tomorrow and not Wed, isn't it.

 

Well, the prediction for myself (and probably the same prediction for what's in store for @Eric Strange and @katnisscinnaplex) is: