The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

Cannot compare big openers with smaller openers. But Bug is trolling here. 

 

It needs to be compared with other big openers. DS2, Bats and even NWH. It should keep trending upwards though initial comps would be bad. 

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, Maggie said:

lol those comps are a little wonky.

 

I know lol

 

Im just having fun

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Top Gun Maverick Denver Preview Showings

Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

502

2574

19.50%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

828

2984

27.75%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2837	186	29062	9.76%	15	174

 

AMCs sold	2090
Cinemarks sold	198
Regals sold	460
Harkins sold	89

 

Tuesday

Total

1533

163

2831

Wednesday

Total

214

5

276

Overall

Grand Total

4584

354

32169

 

0.498x Doctor Strange 2 T-6 (17.93M)

1.02x Batman T-6 (22.02M)

0.309x NWH T-6 (15.43M)

3.29x Dune T-6 (16.77M)

Top Gun Maverick Denver Preview Showings

Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

532

2574

20.67%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

891

2984

29.86%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3057	220	29062	10.52%	15	174

 

AMCs sold	2252
Cinemarks sold	204
Regals sold	505
Harkins sold	96

 

Tuesday

Total

1658

125

2831

Wednesday

Total

223

9

276

Overall

Grand Total

4938

354

32169

 

0.516x Doctor Strange T-5 (18.57M)

1.03x Batman T-5 (22.24M)

0.323x NWH T-5 (16.17M)

3.32x Dune T-5 (16.91M)

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Top Gun Maverick Megaplex

 

T-4 Tuesday(5 showings): 1806(+130)/2742

T-6 Thursday(134 showings): 3695(+308)/35122

 

Total Previews: 5501(+438)/37864

0.522x Doctor Strange 2 T-6 (18.81M)

1.04x Batman T-6 (22.36M)

0.265x NWH T-6 (13.27M)

2.67x Dune T-6 (13.63M)

 

T-7 Friday(206 showings): 5385(+567)/54463

0.812x Doctor Strange 2 T-7 (44.44M)

0.342x NWH T-7 (24.59M)

2.27x Dune T-7 (28.10M)

 

T-8 Saturday(212 showings): 3905(+405)/56663

0.986x Doctor Strange 2 T-8 (56.98M)

0.411x NWH T-8 (30.35M)

2.77x Dune T-8 (38.02M)

 

T-9 Sunday(200 showings): 952(+83)/54035

0.923x Doctor Strange 2 T-9 (35.91M)

0.419x NWH T-9 (26.89M)

2.45x Dune T-9 (23.93M)

Top Gun Maverick Megaplex

 

T-3 Tuesday(5 showings): 1841(+35)/2742

T-5 Thursday(134 showings): 4000(+305)/35122

 

Total Previews: 5841(+340)/37864

0.533x Doctor Strange 2 T-5 (19.19M)

1.05x Batman T-5 (22.79M)

0.275x NWH T-5 (13.76M)

2.67x Dune T-5 (13.60M)

 

T-6 Friday(206 showings): 5912(+527)/54463

0.833x Doctor Strange 2 T-6 (45.57M)

0.361x NWH T-6 (25.97M)

2.25x Dune T-6 (27.86M)

 

T-7 Saturday(212 showings): 4351(+446)/56663

0.995x Doctor Strange 2 T-7 (57.53M)

0.427x NWH T-7 (31.58M)

2.87x Dune T-7 (39.35M)

 

T-8 Sunday(200 showings): 1072(+120)/54035

0.953x Doctor Strange 2 T-8 (37.06M)

0.447x NWH T-8 (28.67M)

2.48x Dune T-8 (24.27M)

[Shawn Robbins]

Not sure if reported somewhere else, but I got confirmation that DA2's studio Friday number includes $1.0M Thursday and $900K Wed.

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Top Gun Maverick Drafthouse

 

T-4 Tuesday(6 showings): 1032(+21)/1420 ATP: $20.41

T-5 Wednesday(27 showings): 3027(+0)/4344 ATP: $15.27

T-6 Thursday(136 showings): 5772(+501)/21898 ATP: $14.93

 

Total Previews: 9831(+522)/27662

0.483x Doctor Strange 2 T-6 (17.39M)

0.499x Batman T-6 (10.78M)

0.365x NWH T-6 (18.26M)

 

T-7 Friday(164 showings): 6499(+608)/27083ATP: $14.75

0.351x Doctor Strange 2 T-7 (19.20M)

0.545x Batman T-7 (19.63M)

0.262x NWH T-7 (18.83M)

 

T-8 Saturday(173 showings): 5916(+471)/28668 ATP: $13.86

0.308x Doctor Strange 2 T-8 (17.82M)

0.512x Batman T-8 (22.16M)

0.239x NWH T-8 (17.64M)

 

T-9 Sunday(144 showings): 3391(+458)/24226 ATP: $13.28

0.329x Doctor Strange 2 T-9 (12.78M)

0.635x Batman T-9 (21.67M)

0.251x NWH T-9 (16.13M)

 

I messed up yesterday's Previews numbers. Thursday was 5271 sold not 5721, and overall previews was 9309.

Top Gun Maverick Drafthouse

 

T-3 Tuesday(6 showings): 1047(+15)/1420 ATP: $20.41

T-4 Wednesday(27 showings): 3031(+4)/4344 ATP: $15.27

T-5 Thursday(136 showings): 6279(+507)/21898 ATP: $14.88

 

Total Previews: 10357(+526)/27662

0.493x Doctor Strange 2 T-5 (17.74M)

0.520x Batman T-5 (11.22M)

0.378x NWH T-5 (18.91M)

 

T-6 Friday(164 showings): 7251(+752)/27083 ATP: $14.74

0.373x Doctor Strange 2 T-6 (20.43M)

0.579x Batman T-6 (20.28M)

0.284x NWH T-6 (20.40M)

 

T-7 Saturday(173 showings): 6699(+783)/28668 ATP: $13.88

0.327x Doctor Strange 2 T-7 (18.92M)

0.517x Batman T-7 (22.37M)

0.260x NWH T-7 (19.24M)

 

T-8 Sunday(144 showings): 3869(+478)/24226 ATP: $13.31

0.348x Doctor Strange 2 T-8 (13.52M)

0.640x Batman T-8 (21.85M)

0.270x NWH T-8 (17.33M)

[cax16]

I’m sure the states is gonna carry Top Gun to a huge opening weekend (and run) but the theatres I looked at here aren’t selling that much for preview night, obviously I expect walk ups to be good but I expected sales to be a bit better tbh after seeing all the great data here from other places. 

[XXR & Friends]

Top 5 Summer OW Predictions 

 

 

Jurassic World: Dominion

21-56-64-52 = 193 

 

Thor: Love and Thunder 

33-48-55-44 = 180

 

Top Gun: Maverick 
15-35-41-33 = 124

 

Lightyear 

13-33-39-34 = 119

 

Minions: Rise of Gru 

8-22-27-23 = 80

 

Edited May 21, 2022 by MessiahXXR

[ZackM]

7 hours ago, ZackM said:

Maverick run from last night.  Another big day, 8k+ tickets across all shows.  On par with The Batman.  Comps continue to rapidly rise.

 

 

Top Gun: Maverick Alpha Chain Early Access Event Seat Report: T-4 days
5/20/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	229	260	35,126	61,829	56.81%
ATP
$23.71

 

 

 

Top Gun: Maverick Alpha Chain Investor Connect Screening Seat Report: T-5 days
5/20/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	195	196	9,903	41,245	24.01%
ATP
$13.66

 

 

 

Top Gun: Maverick Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago
Showings Added	8	28	24	175
Seats Added	788	4,787	3,224	20,781
Seats Sold	5,815	4,906	3,319	3,594
5/20/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	429	3,898	78,141	734,158	10.64%
ATP
$17.29

 

 

 

Top Gun: Maverick Comps
	Dr. Strange MoM		The Batman		Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0	-	-	-	-	-
T-0	-	-	-	-	-
T-1	-	-	-	-	-
T-2	-	-	-	-	-
T-3	-	-	-	-	-
T-4	-	-	-	-	-
T-5	-	-	-	-	-
T-6	$12.1	$13.8	$12.1	$12.2	$13.1
T-7	$11.7	$13.4	$11.7	$11.8	$12.6
T-8	$11.4	$13.0	$11.3	$11.4	$12.2
T-9	$11.3	$12.8	$11.0	$11.1	$12.1
T-10	$11.0	$12.6	$10.8	$10.9	$11.9
T-11	$10.8	$12.3	$10.6	$10.6	$11.6
T-12	$10.5	$12.0	$10.3	$10.4	$11.3
T-13	$10.3	$11.7	$10.1	$10.2	$11.1

 

 

Maverick Alpha Friday

 

Theaters - 429

Showings - 5,297

Sold - 82,720

Total - 1,043,333

ATP - $16.82

[keysersoze123]

50 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

Maverick Alpha Friday

 

Theaters - 429

Showings - 5,297

Sold - 82,720

Total - 1,043,333

ATP - $16.82

Nice that is stronger than BW T-6 (78706/802354 4020 shows). That was end of the day as well. Definitely headed towards 35m+ true friday. Let us see how the PS accelerates in the final week. 

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, cax16 said:

I’m sure the states is gonna carry Top Gun to a huge opening weekend (and run) but the theatres I looked at here aren’t selling that much for preview night, obviously I expect walk ups to be good but I expected sales to be a bit better tbh after seeing all the great data here from other places. 

Its definitely going to play stronger stateside than in Canada. That said it might do better with walkups considering the reviews. Also I forgot someone else from Vancouver? posted that presales so far were backloaded for Maverick. There is no reason why there will be rush to see it OD. 

[M37]

I’m not sure why there is an expectation that JW:Dominion will have a pre sales pace on par with other $140+ OW tiles considering it never has, even Fallen Kingdom, which still shot past the (slowly receding) tracking in the last week up to release. It’s just not a hardcore fan base, but a much more casual/late buying crowd, probably closer to Venom than MCU & Batman 

 

If anyone has all the sales data, might be interesting to use the ratio of Fallen Kingdom/Infinity War (or even Deadpool 2) by day try to extrapolate out Dominion from Strange, rather trying to force a round peg in a square hole and comp those latter 2 directly 

[ZackM]

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago
Showings Added	4	16	4,249
Seats Added	452	1,761	755,974
Seats Sold	1,456	1,218	51,054
5/21/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	427	4,269	53,728	758,187	7.09%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	1	5	25	48
ATP
$18.09

 

[keysersoze123]

I went back to tracking thread around the time last JW movie opened and it was toxic with many predicting doom(opening sub 100m !!!). So there is a trend of it doing much better than what data showed at that time. of course the data we had back then was limited. Only @Porthos did something similar to what he still does today. I think it sold just 6228 tickets at Sacremento and that led to 15.3 million previews. I am sure this will do lot more but release is also lot bigger than last movie. 

 

Beyond that we had sample fandango data scraped. There also it was doing meh until final day. of course we dont have level of data we have today with full alpha presales. 

 

Plus JW3 is opening at 4PM vs 7PM of JW2. So Previews will be bigger share of OW. We will know once we look at Friday PS data. Hopefully @ZackM can look at friday data once TG2 opens next week. TG2 friday PS already at par or tad ahead of thursday(not including early shows on tuesday/wednesday). Let us hope JW3 is also somewhere there. 

 

I think Shawn's definite interest metrics across ages is also promising. This will play to families better than Top Gun 2 for sure. Or even tad better than recent horror flick DS2 :-)

 

Let us hope for JW3 to hit Brainbug's aspirations. it would be good for some studio other than Disney to have that level of breakout. Paramount is going to have one next weekend and Universal having one 2 weeks later bodes well for overall theatrical health. 

[Eric the Minion]

On 5/21/2022 at 12:30 AM, Eric Crawley said:

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	154	2303	31650	7.28%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 206

 

Comp

2.018x of F9 T-6 (14.33M)

2.022x of No Time to Die T-6 (12.74M)

2.276x of Dune T-6 (11.61M)

3.034x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-6 (13.65M)

2.382x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-6 (14.29M)

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	154	2488	31650	7.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 185

 

Comp

1.923x of F9 T-5 (13.65M)

2.046x of No Time to Die T-5 (12.89M)

2.338x of Dune T-5 (11.92M)

3.102x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-5 (13.96M)

2.395x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-5 (14.37M)

[Eric the Minion]

On 5/21/2022 at 12:33 AM, Eric Crawley said:

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-20 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	134	1416	23705	5.97%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 21

 

Comp

2.657x of F9 T-20 (18.86M)

4.046x of Venom 2 T-20 (46.93M)

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-19 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	134	1442	23705	6.08%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 26

 

Comp

2.530x of F9 T-19 (17.96M)

3.908x of Venom 2 T-19 (45.33M)

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think it sold just 6228 tickets at Sacremento and that led to 15.3 million previews. I am sure this will do lot more but release is also lot bigger than last movie. 

Porthos tracked a lot less data back then than now. I think for 20M now it will need something like 12K tix. 

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Porthos tracked a lot less data back then than now. I think for 20M now it will need something like 12K tix. 

He can compare only with similar theaters. I hope he does add those comps. Of course T-19 sales were awful back then. It sold under 1K tickets back then. 

 

on 20m I agree. Bats sold like 11.5K for 17.5m for just thursday. So JW3 needs probably 12-13K to hit 20m.  

[charlie Jatinder]

29 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

He can compare only with similar theaters. I hope he does add those comps. Of course T-19 sales were awful back then. It sold under 1K tickets back then. 

 

on 20m I agree. Bats sold like 11.5K for 17.5m for just thursday. So JW3 needs probably 12-13K to hit 20m.  

Yeah at T-19 JW:FK was only at sale for 4 days so wont say it was awful. For first 4 days of sales in comparable theaters, JW: D was 83% of total sales. If that ratio maintained, JW: D has ~1625 seats sold in those at T-20. 

 

I will probably compare the two at T-10. JW:FK was 1656, JW: Dominion has 10 days till then and may be will be around 2.25-2.5k ish. 

 

But Sacramento is doing better for previews than it was doing in 2018 I believe considering our most pre CoVID comps overperform by like 10-15% iirc.

Edited May 22, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

On 5/21/2022 at 1:13 AM, Porthos said:

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	184	22826	24807	1981	7.99%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

101

 

T-20 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	98.40		77	1942		0/105	16676/18618	10.43%		9196	21.54%		13.60m
JWD (adj)	---		98	1911		0/162	20158/22069	8.66%		---	---		---

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Regal:       316/6145  [5.14% sold]
Matinee:    117/1535  [7.62% | 5.91% of all tickets sold]

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	184	22740	24807	2067	8.33%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

86

 

T-19 Unadjusted Comp

%

Sold T-19

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

F9:

323.47

56

639

0/92

13462/14101

4.53%

4407

45.16%

24.05m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

T-19 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	99.35		61	2003		0/105	16615/18618	10.76%		9196	22.48%		13.73m
JWD (adj)	---		79	1990		0/162	20079/22069	9.02%		---	---		---

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.8048x JW2 at the same sources of tracking on Day 19 [24.85m adj]
JW3 = 1.02317x TLK at the same sources of tracking on Day 19 [21.18m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

 

Regal:         317/6145  [5.16% sold]
Matinee:    134/1535  [8.73% | 6.48% of all tickets sold]

Edited May 28, 2022 by Porthos