The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/21/2022 at 2:25 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Megaplex

 

T-19 Thursday(91 showings): 1244(+68)/26260

1.52x Eternals T-19 (14.43M)

0.716x Black Widow T-19 (9.45M)

 

T-20 Friday(150 showings): 1146(+51)/43519

2.79x Eternals T-20 (59.54M)

1.17x Black Widow T-20 (30.75M)

 

T-21 Saturday(158 showings): 790(+55)/45546

3.16x Eternals T-21 (76.22M)

 

T-22 Sunday(144 showings): 219(+31)/41066

3.00x Eternals T-22 (48.99M)

Jurassic World Dominion Megaplex

 

T-18 Thursday(91 showings): 1291(+47)/26260

1.54x Eternals T-18 (14.65M)

0.727x Black Widow T-18 (9.59M)

 

T-19 Friday(150 showings): 1183(+37)/43519

2.74x Eternals T-19 (58.47M)

1.16x Black Widow T-19 (30.47M)

 

T-20 Saturday(158 showings): 847(+57)/45546

3.14x Eternals T-20 (75.74M)

 

T-21 Sunday(144 showings): 227(+8)/41066

3.07x Eternals T-21 (50.13M)

[Grebacio]

11 minutes ago, cax16 said:

Would be good to see, tired of hearing people online say online comic book movies make money. 

Even if Top Gun fails to do it, Jurassic World is basically locked to outgross Batman and Strange.

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/21/2022 at 2:26 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-19 Thursday(114 showings): 3778(+64)/17051 ATP: $14.28

 

T-20 Friday(172 showings): 3343(+161)/27860 ATP: $14.56

 

T-21 Saturday(180 showings): 3301(+113)/29291 ATP: $13.53

 

T-22 Sunday(148 showings): 1364(+70)/24294 ATP: $13.01

Jurassic World Dominion Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-18 Thursday(114 showings): 3877(+99)/17051 ATP: $14.26

 

T-19 Friday(172 showings): 3551(+208)/27860 ATP: $14.59

 

T-20 Saturday(180 showings): 3486(+185)/29291 ATP: $13.55

 

T-21 Sunday(148 showings): 1482(+118)/24294 ATP: $13.02

[Eric the Minion]

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

Most likely got nothing to do this summer, but even if I do, thinking of doing a ML-related project on the side. Thinking of making something re: predicting previews/weekend numbers for movies with data from this thread. What's the best data I could use for this? Was thinking of @keysersoze123's but idk. To be clear, don't have anything concrete yet. Just playing around with ideas for something to beef up my resume.

I have no clue what ML is, but PM me if you need any of my data or anything else of the sort.

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/21/2022 at 3:04 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Top Gun Maverick Denver Preview Showings

Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

532

2574

20.67%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

891

2984

29.86%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3057	220	29062	10.52%	15	174

 

AMCs sold	2252
Cinemarks sold	204
Regals sold	505
Harkins sold	96

 

Tuesday

Total

1658

125

2831

Wednesday

Total

223

9

276

Overall

Grand Total

4938

354

32169

 

0.516x Doctor Strange T-5 (18.57M)

1.03x Batman T-5 (22.24M)

0.323x NWH T-5 (16.17M)

3.32x Dune T-5 (16.91M)

Top Gun Maverick Denver Preview Showings

Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

596

2574

23.15%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

966

2984

32.37%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3481	424	29062	11.98%	15	174

 

AMCs sold	2522
Cinemarks sold	247
Regals sold	587
Harkins sold	125

 

Tuesday

Total

1782

124

2831

Wednesday

Total

234

11

276

Overall

Grand Total

5497

559

32169

 

0.550x Doctor Strange 2 T-4 (19.81M)

1.09x Batman T-4 (23.53M)

0.351x NWH T-4 (17.53M)

3.46x Dune T-4 (17.64M)

[Potiki]

6 minutes ago, Eric Crawley said:

I have no clue what ML is, but PM me if you need any of my data or anything else of the sort.

ML is probably Machine Learning

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/21/2022 at 3:09 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Top Gun Maverick Megaplex

 

T-3 Tuesday(5 showings): 1841(+35)/2742

T-5 Thursday(134 showings): 4000(+305)/35122

 

Total Previews: 5841(+340)/37864

0.533x Doctor Strange 2 T-5 (19.19M)

1.05x Batman T-5 (22.79M)

0.275x NWH T-5 (13.76M)

2.67x Dune T-5 (13.60M)

 

T-6 Friday(206 showings): 5912(+527)/54463

0.833x Doctor Strange 2 T-6 (45.57M)

0.361x NWH T-6 (25.97M)

2.25x Dune T-6 (27.86M)

 

T-7 Saturday(212 showings): 4351(+446)/56663

0.995x Doctor Strange 2 T-7 (57.53M)

0.427x NWH T-7 (31.58M)

2.87x Dune T-7 (39.35M)

 

T-8 Sunday(200 showings): 1072(+120)/54035

0.953x Doctor Strange 2 T-8 (37.06M)

0.447x NWH T-8 (28.67M)

2.48x Dune T-8 (24.27M)

Top Gun Maverick Megaplex

 

T-2 Tuesday(5 showings): 1985(+144)/2742

T-4 Thursday(134 showings): 4279(+279)/35122

 

Total Previews: 6264(+423)/37864

0.537x Doctor Strange 2 T-4 (19.33M)

1.08x Batman T-4 (23.34M)

0.287x NWH T-4 (14.34M)

2.70x Dune T-4 (13.75M)

 

T-5 Friday(206 showings): 6500(+588)/54463

0.834x Doctor Strange 2 T-5 (45.65M)

0.380x NWH T-5 (27.36M)

2.31x Dune T-5 (28.64M)

 

T-6 Saturday(212 showings): 4806(+455)/56663

0.988x Doctor Strange 2 T-6 (57.12M)

0.441x NWH T-6 (32.56M)

2.91x Dune T-6 (40.01M)

 

T-7 Sunday(200 showings): 1317(+245)/54035

1.01x Doctor Strange 2 T-7 (39.37M)

0.500x NWH T-7 (32.07M)

2.63x Dune T-7 (25.76M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/21/2022 at 3:15 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Top Gun Maverick Drafthouse

 

T-3 Tuesday(6 showings): 1047(+15)/1420 ATP: $20.41

T-4 Wednesday(27 showings): 3031(+4)/4344 ATP: $15.27

T-5 Thursday(136 showings): 6279(+507)/21898 ATP: $14.88

 

Total Previews: 10357(+526)/27662

0.493x Doctor Strange 2 T-5 (17.74M)

0.520x Batman T-5 (11.22M)

0.378x NWH T-5 (18.91M)

 

T-6 Friday(164 showings): 7251(+752)/27083 ATP: $14.74

0.373x Doctor Strange 2 T-6 (20.43M)

0.579x Batman T-6 (20.28M)

0.284x NWH T-6 (20.40M)

 

T-7 Saturday(173 showings): 6699(+783)/28668 ATP: $13.88

0.327x Doctor Strange 2 T-7 (18.92M)

0.517x Batman T-7 (22.37M)

0.260x NWH T-7 (19.24M)

 

T-8 Sunday(144 showings): 3869(+478)/24226 ATP: $13.31

0.348x Doctor Strange 2 T-8 (13.52M)

0.640x Batman T-8 (21.85M)

0.270x NWH T-8 (17.33M)

Top Gun Maverick Drafthouse

 

T-2 Tuesday(6 showings): 1079(+32)/1420 ATP: $20.43

T-3 Wednesday(27 showings): 3047(+16)/4344 ATP: $15.28

T-4 Thursday(136 showings): 6876(+597)/21898 ATP: $14.85

 

Total Previews: 11002(+645)/27662

0.502x Doctor Strange 2 T-4 (18.07M)

0.538x Batman T-4 (11.61M)

0.394x NWH T-4 (19.71M)

 

T-5 Friday(166 showings): 8045(+794)/27331 ATP: $14.69

0.392x Doctor Strange 2 T-5 (21.48M)

0.595x Batman T-5 (20.83M)

0.307x NWH T-5 (22.06M)

 

T-6 Saturday(175 showings): 7557(+858)/28874 ATP: $13.92

0.345x Doctor Strange 2 T-6 (19.97M)

0.531x Batman T-6 (22.96M)

0.283x NWH T-6 (20.91M)

 

T-7 Sunday(145 showings): 4533(+664)/24365 ATP: $13.36

0.365x Doctor Strange 2 T-7 (14.18M)

0.655x Batman T-7 (22.39M)

0.299x NWH T-7 (19.16M)

[cax16]

1 hour ago, VanillaSkies said:

 

I'm sure this has already been mentioned somewhere at this point, but here in Canada the IMAX early access previews are happening on Wednesday. This could combined nicely with the Investor Early Access shows on Wednesday to give a nice number for Wednesday as well. This could have 5-6 million in previews before shows even start on Thursday!

I didn’t realize these shows were happening here, no wonder Thursday sales weren’t looking as big as normal. Makes sense now. 

[lorddemaxus]

31 minutes ago, Eric Crawley said:

I have no clue what ML is, but PM me if you need any of my data or anything else of the sort.

Machine Learning. I'm thinking of making a program that predicts preview numbers for upcoming releases using past presales data that's posted here weighted against features such as genre, likely demo, and RT rating. Not sure how useful it would be since the trackers are already pretty good at doing these predictions, but like I said, I want something for my resume and this felt like a cool idea.

Edited May 22, 2022 by lorddemaxus

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Inceptionzq said:

Top Gun Maverick Denver Preview Showings

0.550x Doctor Strange 2 T-4 (19.81M)

1.09x Batman T-4 (23.53M)

0.351x NWH T-4 (17.53M)

3.46x Dune T-4 (17.64M)

 

So it's still probably really unlikely (and I am ****NOT**** setting expectations here).  But IIRC @keysersoze123 has floated the idea of TGM maaaaaybe doing 20m in total Tue/Wed/Thr previews.

 

If, ***IF***, that were to happen, what sort of 3day/4day do we all think that might get for TGM?  I'm terrible at extrapolating OW internal multis, so I thought I'd throw it open to the crowd.

 

Edited May 22, 2022 by Porthos
Fine, deleted unintended slang I didn't know about

[Potiki]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

so I thot I'd throw it open to the crowd.

 

[BruiseCruise]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

So it's still probably really unlikely (and I am ****NOT**** setting expectations here).  But IIRC @keysersoze123 has floated the idea of TGM maaaaaybe doing 20m in total Tue/Wed/Thr previews.

 

If, ***IF***, that were to happen, what sort of 3day/4day do we all think that might get for TGM?  I'm terrible at extrapolating OW internal multis, so I thot I'd throw it open to the crowd.

 

Batman pulled off 134 off of 21.6m previews but TG2 is much shorter and has 4 day weekend so i'd feel super confident about atleast 150m if those previews happen

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, Potiki said:

 

 

???

 

*checks Urban Dictionary*

 

*stews*

 

Fine.  Re-worded.

 

*learned something knew today, I suppose*

Edited May 22, 2022 by Porthos

[CJohn]

Previews are getting so spread across Tues/Weds/Thurs + shows starting at 3 PM on Thurs that it is getting harder to predict OW based on that. Friday is becoming a smaller and smaller part of the OD, and if WOM isn't great Saturday and Sunday will get affected (The Northman). The opposite also can happen, of course. If Top Gun pulls 20M from all the previews added I still think it is looking at a 100M OW or so.

[Potiki]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

???

 

*checks Urban Dictionary*

 

*stews*

 

Fine.  Re-worded.

 

*learned something knew today, I suppose*

My bad, didn't mean to come off as an attack.

 

Just found it a strange way to use that word, thought it might have been a Freudian slip/typo and found it funny. 

 

For what it is worth back to your original question, I agree with @CJohn that it having so many days of previews makes it hard to work out but great WOM can offset that and more so over a holiday weekend. 

Edited May 22, 2022 by Potiki

[Porthos]

Just now, Potiki said:

My bad, didn't mean to come off as an attack.

 

Just found it a strange way to use that word, thought it might have been a Freudian slip/typo and found it funny. 

 

No no, just using a shortcut-ish way of writing that word that I'd used off and on for decades.  Possibly looooong before that slang came to be.  Anyway, good to know not to use it in the future so no harm done.

[Menor the Destroyer]

31 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

So it's still probably really unlikely (and I am ****NOT**** setting expectations here).  But IIRC @keysersoze123 has floated the idea of TGM maaaaaybe doing 20m in total Tue/Wed/Thr previews.

 

If, ***IF***, that were to happen, what sort of 3day/4day do we all think that might get for TGM?  I'm terrible at extrapolating OW internal multis, so I thought I'd throw it open to the crowd.

 

That number and Zack's number are actually making me think higher than 20 total, but just spitballing I think 20 could go something like 4 (early) - 16 Thu - 40 Fri - 50 Sat - 35 Sun for something like 145. Even higher is possible but it all depends on the Fri/Thu. 

Edited May 22, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Most likely got nothing to do this summer, but even if I do, thinking of doing a ML-related project on the side. Thinking of making something re: predicting previews/weekend numbers for movies with data from this thread. What's the best data I could use for this? Was thinking of @keysersoze123's but idk. To be clear, don't have anything concrete yet. Just playing around with ideas for something to beef up my resume.

I think any source of presale data should be workable if you have stuff like genre as inputs, since the model would be able to learn the particular genre biases of that region and adjust given enough data. But ideally I think you would maybe want to use some combination of the regional trackers and Zack's (since we aren't able to get the Cinemark data that regularly anymore, so it would hard to use going forward). 

 

I think the only issue with this might be just that we have a somewhat irregular snapshot of the data, so the model's adjustments will likely be worse at first than some of the gut predictions of the trackers, but it should get better over time. It will be interesting to see how close you're able to get. 

Edited May 22, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[VanillaSkies]

1 hour ago, cax16 said:

I didn’t realize these shows were happening here, no wonder Thursday sales weren’t looking as big as normal. Makes sense now. 

 

Yeah, I noticed them pop up not that long ago, it might have been a last minute decision. 

Interesting that they didn't choose to do it on Tuesday like the other IMAX previews. 

Some of the shows, in Toronto and Montreal for instance, are selling quite well. Will hopefully help word of mouth spread before the weekend and give a nice bump to the Canadian weekend numbers as well.