The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/23/2022 at 4:01 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Top Gun Maverick Megaplex

 

T-1 Tuesday(5 showings): 2123(+138)/2742

T-3 Thursday(165 showings): 4949(+670)/35122

 

Total Previews: 7072(+808)/39604

0.552x Doctor Strange 2 T-3 (19.87M)

1.09x Batman T-3 (23.59M)

0.310x NWH T-3 (15.45M)

2.65x Dune T-3 (13.54M)

 

T-4 Friday(214 showings): 7527(+1027)/55343

0.848x Doctor Strange 2 T-4 (46.41M)

0.413x NWH T-4 (29.70M)

2.32x Dune T-4 (28.76M)

 

T-5 Saturday(214 showings): 5650(+844)/56948

0.994x Doctor Strange 2 T-5 (57.46M)

0.467x NWH T-5 (34.52M)

2.95x Dune T-5 (40.52M)

 

T-6 Sunday(200 showings): 1566(+249)/54035

1.02x Doctor Strange 2 T-6 (39.50M)

0.535x NWH T-6 (34.31M)

2.69x Dune T-6 (26.32M)

Top Gun Maverick Megaplex

 

T-0 Tuesday(5 showings): 2348(+225)/2742

T-2 Thursday(192 showings): 5783(+834)/44053

 

Total Previews: 8131(+1059)/46795

0.577x Doctor Strange 2 T-2 (20.78M)

1.08x Batman T-2 (23.30M)

0.336x NWH T-2 (16.80M)

2.68x Dune T-2 (13.67M)

 

T-3 Friday(298 showings): 9193(+1666)/70278

0.882x Doctor Strange 2 T-3 (48.27M)

0.457x NWH T-3 (32.86M)

2.43x Dune T-3 (30.08M)

 

T-4 Saturday(306 showings): 6686(+1036)/72432

0.983x Doctor Strange 2 T-4 (56.83M)

0.490x NWH T-4 (36.22M)

2.93x Dune T-4 (40.16M)

 

T-6 Sunday(288 showings): 1983(+417)/69717

1.13x Doctor Strange 2 T-5 (44.07M)

0.585x NWH T-5 (37.56M)

3.00x Dune T-5 (29.34M)

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

We have more fine grained data that during FK timeframe. There is limited chance of it tracking like 100m opener and jumping to 200m OW. Plus with 4PM start vs 7PM start for FK, it will probably not do > 9x previews. Could go lower than that as well. So take that into equation. FK did around 9.7x previews if I am not wrong. 

 

As I said its all instinct and I could be wrong. So this could give us new insight for sure if it does explode like you are expecting. 

 

I completely agree that the Previews-to-OW-ratio will be lower than FK. Mainly because previews start earlier in the day but also because - speaking mainly for the few hard Jurassic Park fans that actually exist - this movie has a little bit of a rush factor to it because of the "finale" factor, unlike FK which was "only" the sequel to JW. It will only be a little factor for more frontloading i believe (and maybe it will even amount to nothing at all lol) but i do expect Dominions OW to be more frontloaded than FK.

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/23/2022 at 4:07 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Top Gun Maverick Drafthouse

 

T-1 Tuesday(6 showings): 1132(+53)/1420 ATP: $20.48

T-2 Wednesday(27 showings): 3047(+0)/4344 ATP: $15.28

T-3 Thursday(156 showings): 7675(+799)/23528 ATP: $14.83

 

Total Previews: 11854(+852)/29292

0.511x Doctor Strange 2 T-3 (18.40M)

0.550x Batman T-3 (11.87M)

0.415x NWH T-3 (20.75M)

 

T-4 Friday(197 showings): 9125(+1080)/30652 ATP: $14.62

0.412x Doctor Strange 2 T-4 (22.56M)

0.598x Batman T-4 (20.94M)

0.335x NWH T-4 (24.13M)

 

T-5 Saturday(209 showings): 8490(+933)/32444 ATP: $13.94

0.361x Doctor Strange 2 T-5 (20.85M)

0.523x Batman T-5 (22.63M)

0.303x NWH T-5 (22.41M)

 

T-6 Sunday(145 showings): 5345(+812)/28773 ATP: $13.41

0.390x Doctor Strange 2 T-6 (15.18M)

0.642x Batman T-6 (21.91M)

0.327x NWH T-6 (20.99M)

Top Gun Maverick Drafthouse

 

T-0 Tuesday(6 showings): 1276(+144)/1420 ATP: $20.51

T-1 Wednesday(27 showings): 3047(+0)/4344 ATP: $15.28

T-2 Thursday(203 showings): 8877(+1202)/27981 ATP: $14.81

 

Total Previews: 13200(+1346)/33745

0.514x Doctor Strange 2 T-2 (18.50M)

0.555x Batman T-2 (11.98M)

0.448x NWH T-2 (22.38M)

 

T-3 Friday(320 showings): 10880(+1755)/44043 ATP: $14.65

0.421x Doctor Strange 2 T-3 (23.02M)

0.583x Batman T-3 (2041M)

 

T-4 Saturday(353 showings): 9869(+1379)/47207 ATP: $13.97

0.360x Doctor Strange 2 T-4 (20.81M)

0.504x Batman T-4 (21.81M)

 

T-5 Sunday(321 showings): 6324(+979)/44046 ATP: $13.56

0.398x Doctor Strange 2 T-5 (15.49M)

0.616x Batman T-5 (21.02M)

0.367x NWH T-5 (23.53M)

 

Didn't get numbers for NWH Friday and Saturday this day so no comps

[XXR & Friends]

18 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

We have more fine grained data that during FK timeframe. There is limited chance of it tracking like 100m opener and jumping to 200m OW. Plus with 4PM start vs 7PM start for FK, it will probably not do > 9x previews. Could go lower than that as well. So take that into equation. FK did around 9.7x previews if I am not wrong. 

 

As I said its all instinct and I could be wrong. So this could give us new insight for sure if it does explode like you are expecting. 

 

9 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

I completely agree that the Previews-to-OW-ratio will be lower than FK. Mainly because previews start earlier in the day but also because - speaking mainly for the few hard Jurassic Park fans that actually exist - this movie has a little bit of a rush factor to it because of the "finale" factor, unlike FK which was "only" the sequel to JW. It will only be a little factor for more frontloading i believe (and maybe it will even amount to nothing at all lol) but i do expect Dominions OW to be more frontloaded than FK.

 

My expectation is 8-8.5x previews. If that’s correct, we’d need about $20M previews to reach FK OW in tickets sold (not $ amount). I’d consider a fall from FK in tickets sold to be….unfortunate.

[ZackM]

On 5/21/2022 at 7:03 PM, ZackM said:

 

Maverick Alpha Friday

 

Theaters - 429

Showings - 5,297

Sold - 82,720

Total - 1,043,333

ATP - $16.82

 

Update for Maverick Alpha Friday

 

Theaters - 429

Showings - 6,774

Sold - 135,656

Total - 1,238,256

ATP - 16.42

 

👀

[Inceptionzq]

55 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Thank you @Inceptionzq. Can you also add TG2 comp for megaplex and drafthouse. Recent comps are always better. The comp with Bats will go up big for sure and so its not a concern at this point. 

Added Top Gun 2 comps to Megaplex and Drafthouse

[keysersoze123]

26 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

Update for Maverick Alpha Friday

 

Theaters - 429

Showings - 6,774

Sold - 135,656

Total - 1,238,256

ATP - 16.42

 

👀

WOW. BW that tuesday morning was at 114140/914070. it was at 144030/1224424 friday evening PST. This is just crushing it. FYI OD finished at 442690/1236881 for around 26m. This is gonna crush it. Let us see how things go next 2 days. 

 

BW had anemic walkups(obviously due to restrictions plus premium access availability on day 1). I am thinking 40m true friday is possible for TG2. We are in for a wild ride for sure. 

 

Of course these trade sites wont get it. But exhibitors saying 125m+ means they are ready for the wild ride this weekend. 

Edited May 24, 2022 by keysersoze123

[Ronin46]

The Hollywood Reporter

 

Top Gun 2 is easily headed for the biggest opening of Tom Cruise’s career at the domestic box office, with a four-day gross of at least $92 million, according to official tracking. And that’s a conservative estimate. Many pundits believe the critically acclaimed sequel could soar well north of $100 million domestically, but tracking — one of Hollywood’s favorite pastimes — has become fraught in the pandemic era. Exhibitors are especially bullish on the pic, and are even thinking $125 million-plus.

 

Looking to provide counter-programming, Disney will release 20th Century’s The Bob’s Burgers Movie in more than 3,400 theaters in North America. The PG-13 pic, based on the popular TV show that’s a favorite of teen girls, is tracking to gross $10 million to $14 million and presently boasts a 98 percent score Rotten Tomatoes.

 

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Added in MTC3

 

Polled - 435 shows

62,039/107,119 sold (57.92%)

$1,369,164

Working on updating these.  I've done EST, CST and MST shows so far, still have PST to pull and planning to update CST where <50% occupancy shortly.

 

Current numbers

Polled - 384 shows

66,069/91,518 sold

$1,390,486

 

Should have right at 500 shows (excluding MTC 1&2, Alamo and Megaplex) tonight

[DAJK]

Was sick for most of the last week and didn’t really have much of a chance to track, let alone follow, any numbers. Are many people still on the TGM>MOM domestic train?

[XXR & Friends]

5 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Are many people still on the TGM>MOM domestic train?

 

A lot are, yes. I think they will finish within 10% of each other, in either direction. 

[keysersoze123]

59 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Top Gun Maverick Drafthouse

 

T-0 Tuesday(6 showings): 1276(+144)/1420 ATP: $20.51

T-1 Wednesday(27 showings): 3047(+0)/4344 ATP: $15.28

T-2 Thursday(203 showings): 8877(+1202)/27981 ATP: $14.81

 

Total Previews: 13200(+1346)/33745

0.514x Doctor Strange 2 T-2 (18.50M)

0.555x Batman T-2 (11.98M)

0.448x NWH T-2 (22.38M)

 

T-3 Friday(320 showings): 10880(+1755)/44043 ATP: $14.65

0.421x Doctor Strange 2 T-3 (23.02M)

0.583x Batman T-3 (2041M)

 

T-4 Saturday(353 showings): 9869(+1379)/47207 ATP: $13.97

0.360x Doctor Strange 2 T-4 (20.81M)

0.504x Batman T-4 (21.81M)

 

T-5 Sunday(321 showings): 6324(+979)/44046 ATP: $13.56

0.398x Doctor Strange 2 T-5 (15.49M)

0.616x Batman T-5 (21.02M)

0.367x NWH T-5 (23.53M)

 

Didn't get numbers for NWH Friday and Saturday this day so no comps

Drafthouse is the only chain where TG2 numbers are just ok. I am surprised its so much below bats. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

46 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Working on updating these.  I've done EST, CST and MST shows so far, still have PST to pull and planning to update CST where <50% occupancy shortly.

 

Current numbers

Polled - 384 shows

66,069/91,518 sold

$1,390,486

 

Should have right at 500 shows (excluding MTC 1&2, Alamo and Megaplex) tonight

Updated

 

Polled - 500 shows

89,420/122,348

$1,924,438

ATP 21.52

 

This is using all adult ticket prices

[M37]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Drafthouse is the only chain where TG2 numbers are just ok. I am surprised its so much below bats. 

I think there might be an error there @Inceptionzq? Should be 0.825x = $17.82M (per post below)?

 

Or are you only comparing the Thur to Thur, since you didn’t have Tue shows for Batman? Which could mean the Wed screenings for Drafthouse are cannibalizing from what would have been Thursday, throwing off the direct ratio

 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

We have more fine grained data that during FK timeframe. There is limited chance of it tracking like 100m opener and jumping to 200m OW. Plus with 4PM start vs 7PM start for FK, it will probably not do > 9x previews. Could go lower than that as well. So take that into equation. FK did around 9.7x previews if I am not wrong. 

 

As I said its all instinct and I could be wrong. So this could give us new insight for sure if it does explode like you are expecting. 

The early shows didn't make that much of an impact so far but this summer they may start doing that. With schools off, THU shows starting 2PM will be as good as THU OD. I won't be surprise with FRI barely over THU for Thor 4, but also means THU of Thor 4 can be 40+.

[Shawn Robbins]

2 hours ago, Ronin46 said:

The Hollywood Reporter

 

Top Gun 2 is easily headed for the biggest opening of Tom Cruise’s career at the domestic box office, with a four-day gross of at least $92 million, according to official tracking. And that’s a conservative estimate. Many pundits believe the critically acclaimed sequel could soar well north of $100 million domestically, but tracking — one of Hollywood’s favorite pastimes — has become fraught in the pandemic era. Exhibitors are especially bullish on the pic, and are even thinking $125 million-plus.

 

Looking to provide counter-programming, Disney will release 20th Century’s The Bob’s Burgers Movie in more than 3,400 theaters in North America. The PG-13 pic, based on the popular TV show that’s a favorite of teen girls, is tracking to gross $10 million to $14 million and presently boasts a 98 percent score Rotten Tomatoes.

 

 

Mentioned to Jatinder earlier today, but both of these numbers are passed along from their respective studios. Verbatim. Classic lowballing on TGM, but understandably so.

[Joyous Legion]

Wonder if burger is as lowballed as Top Gun there. I know it’s been tracking pretty low from BOP but katniss and el sid sales seem to be pointing to like 1.5ish which would likely take it to 20+ on the 4day imo

[Inceptionzq]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

I think there might be an error there @Inceptionzq? Should be 0.825x = $17.82M (per post below)?

 

Or are you only comparing the Thur to Thur, since you didn’t have Tue shows for Batman? Which could mean the Wed screenings for Drafthouse are cannibalizing from what would have been Thursday, throwing off the direct ratio

Yeah I’m only comparing Thursdays but using the full preview gross for the comp. I probably should only use the Thursday gross since 4-5K of EA tickets will weigh more heavily for TG2 than Batman. FWIW, if I only use Thursday’s number and add 4M for EA, the comp would be 13.77M

[Shawn Robbins]

19 minutes ago, DS2HaterLegion Confirmed said:

Wonder if burger is as lowballed as Top Gun there. I know it’s been tracking pretty low from BOP but katniss and el sid sales seem to be pointing to like 1.5ish which would likely take it to 20+ on the 4day imo

I get nervous with Fox movies being handled by Disney, but agree -- this could hit the high end from two weeks ago or maybe pass it. I do expect frontloading but hard to say how much. Admittedly haven't felt as confident in the models for it until the past few days.

[Porthos]

Early Access blew the fuck up locally.  Wound up with over 90% of all seats in the region sold (+180 tickets for the day).  Could have been even more, but one theater closes up shop with about 30 seats still available and the nosebleed  neck crane seats at the big local TrueIMAX seats went mostly unsold (another 50 or so seats there).  Otherwise...

 

Well, this tells the picture:

 

Arden    	271    271    100.00%
Natomas   	119    140    85.00%
Greenback   	146    175    83.43%
Palladio    	154    183    84.15%
El Dorado   	197    209    94.26%
Blue Oaks   	101    101    100.00%
Doco    	203    215    94.42%
Delta Shores	185    218    84.86%
Cen Laguna    	161    168    95.83%
Roseville    	194    205    94.63%
Roseville (BOX)  21    21    
Country Club    148    183    80.87%
IMAX    	330    388    85.05%

 

with the vast majority of unsold seats being wheelchair slots/companion seats/front row seats.  

 

Came out to 2230/2477 (90.03% sold) [+180 tickets].

 

Haven't even taken the pulse of the Thur sales (and won't for a few hours).  But gonna be a good day locally.

Edited May 25, 2022 by Porthos
reworded my adjective phrase slightly