The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[THUNDER BIRD]

Jurassic World Overseas Gross - 1.015 Billion

 

Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom Overseas Gross - 891 Million

[katnisscinnaplex]

Sorry all, out of town this weekend. Will be back tracking tomorrow.

 

I'm pretty certain that JW3 will be disappointing, especially after what we're seeing in Top Gun. Hopefully we can temper those expectations now to help lessen the blow when/if it comes in low.  

[Shawn Robbins]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

@Shawn Did you manage to get BO data for pre thursday shows for maverick?

Sadly no.

[Shawn Robbins]

2 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Sorry all, out of town this weekend. Will be back tracking tomorrow.

 

I'm pretty certain that JW3 will be disappointing, especially after what we're seeing in Top Gun. Hopefully we can temper those expectations now to help lessen the blow when/if it comes in low.  

Agreed. I haven't checked any data since Thursday but I'd be shocked if models don't come down on JWD. It'll still be big, of course. But the thunder has been stolen.

 

Real pickle now is for Paramount trying to get IMAX screens back as much as possible throughout the summer. It's a shame TGM will lose so much premium footprint four days after an historic second weekend hold.

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Agreed. I haven't checked any data since Thursday but I'd be shocked if models don't come down on JWD. It'll still be big, of course. But the thunder has been stolen.

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

I have a feeling that this tamping down on Dominion is somewhat premature. I think it can coexist just fine with Top Gun. Tonight will be a good indicator. Fallen Kingdom opened with 148 just one week after I2 blew up to more than 180, and I think those two had more audience overlap than Top Gun and Jurassic. 

Spoiler

In fact, I kinda have a feeling that Lightyear is gonna suffer more from the situation. 

 

Edited June 5, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Bigscrubnus]

19 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Agreed. I haven't checked any data since Thursday but I'd be shocked if models don't come down on JWD. It'll still be big, of course. But the thunder has been stolen.

 

Real pickle now is for Paramount trying to get IMAX screens back as much as possible throughout the summer. It's a shame TGM will lose so much premium footprint four days after an historic second weekend hold.

My threshold for disappointment is below 160 OW. Do you still think that’s in the cards?

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/3/2022 at 3:34 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

542

2320

23.36%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

584

3250

17.97%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2966	419	28682	10.34%	15	183

 

AMCs sold	1920
Cinemarks sold	470
Regals sold	329
Harkins sold	247

 

0.647x Top Gun 2 T-6 (12.46M)

0.660x Batman T-6 (14.25M)

1.60x Eternals T-6 (15.17M)

1.20x Black Widow T-6 (15.81M)

Jurassic World Dominion Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

626

2320

26.98%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

660

3250

20.31%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3404	438	28816	11.81%	15	186

 

AMCs sold	2161
Cinemarks sold	540
Regals sold	386
Harkins sold	317

 

 

0.619x Top Gun 2 T-4 (11.93M)

0.341x Doctor Strange 2 T-4 (12.26M)

0.675x Batman T-4 (14.57M)
1.65x Eternals T-4 (15.66M)

1.21x Black Widow T-4 (15.96M)

[katnisscinnaplex]

17 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I have a feeling that this tamping down on Dominion is somewhat premature. I think it can coexist just fine with Top Gun. Tonight will be a good indicator. Fallen Kingdom opened with 148 just one week after I2 blew up to more than 180, and I think those two had more audience overlap than Top Gun and Jurassic. 

  Reveal hidden contents

In fact, I kinda have a feeling that Lightyear is gonna suffer more from the situation. 

 

But then we can allow room for excitement! Much better than meltdowns

[Shawn Robbins]

16 minutes ago, Bigscrubnus said:

My threshold for disappointment is below 160 OW. Do you still think that’s in the cards?

Absolutely still in the cards, IMO, and still more likely than not. Next few days will tell us more. I really wouldn't rule anything out just yet even though Maverick is clearly now the poster film of 2022 until proven otherwise. 

 

Still... the under 18 demo is JWD's golden egg.

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/3/2022 at 3:42 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Megaplex [2 days of sales]

 

T-6 Thursday(104 showings): 2916(+541)/29567

0.530x Top Gun 2 T-6 (10.21M)

0.549x Batman T-6 (11.85M)

1.67x Eternals T-6 (15.83M)

0.962x Black Widow T-6 (12.70M)

 

T-7 Friday(150 showings): 2938(+562)/43519

0.546x Top Gun 2 T-7 (17.87M)

1.06x Batman T-7 (36.94M)

2.10x Eternals T-7 (44.78M)

1.25x Black Widow T-7 (32.76M)

 

T-8 Saturday(162 showings): 2121(+421)/46146

0.543x Top Gun 2 T-8 (20.65M)

1.41x Batman T-8 (61.17M)

2.90x Eternals T-8 (69.98M)

 

T-9 Sunday(144 showings): 745(+162)/41066

0.783x Top Gun 2 T-9 (28.70M)

2.18x Batman T-9 (74.59M)

4.81x Eternals T-9 (78.49M)

Jurassic World Dominion Megaplex [2 days of sales]

 

T-4 Thursday(105 showings): 3542(+626)/29685

0.565x Top Gun 2 T-4 (10.89M)

0.304x Doctor Strange 2 T-4 (10.93M)

0.611x Batman T-4 (13.20M)

1.03x Black Widow T-4 (13.59M)

 

T-5 Friday(152 showings): 3664(+726)/43713

0.564x Top Gun 2 T-5 (18.46M)

0.470x Doctor Strange 2 T-5 (25.73M)

1.07x Batman T-5 (37.46M)

1.27x Black Widow T-5 (33.48M)

 

T-6 Saturday(167 showings): 2767(+646)/47621

0.576x Top Gun 2 T-6 (21.89M)

0.569x Doctor Strange 2 T-6 (32.89M)

1.46x Batman T-6 (63.20M)

 

T-7 Sunday(149 showings): 972(+227)/42508

0.738x Top Gun 2 T-7 (27.07M)

0.747x Doctor Strange 2 T-7 (29.06M)

2.15x Batman T-7 (73.25M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/3/2022 at 3:48 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Alamo Drafthouse [3 days of sales]

 

T-6 Thursday(143 showings): 6700(+1474)/20777 ATP: $14.46

0.682x Top Gun 2 T-6 (13.13M)

0.579x Batman T-6 (10.20M)

 

T-7 Friday(186 showings): 6810(+1516)/29310 ATP: $14.54

1.05x Top Gun 2 T-7 (34.32M)

0.588x Batman T-7 (20.57M)

 

T-8 Saturday(198 showings): 6389(+1246)/30995 ATP: $13.68

1.08x Top Gun 2 T-8 (41.06M)

0.553x Batman T-8 (23.93M)

 

T-9 Sunday(160 showings): 3470(+796)/25317 ATP: $13.14

1.02x Top Gun 2 T-9 (37.53M)

0.650x Batman T-9 (22.17M)

Jurassic World Dominion Alamo Drafthouse [3 days of sales]

 

T-4 Thursday(144 showings): 7788(+1088)/20913 ATP: $14.47

0.708x Top Gun 2 T-4 (13.63M)

0.355x Doctor Strange 2 T-4 (12.79M)

0.609x Batman T-4 (10.72M)

 

T-5 Friday(191 showings): 8254(+1444)/29772 ATP: $14.48

1.03x Top Gun 2 T-5 (33.60M)

0.403x Doctor Strange 2 T-5 (22.03M)

0.610x Batman T-5 (21.37M)

 

T-6 Saturday(202 showings): 8079(+1690)/31183 ATP: $13.70

1.07x Top Gun 2 T-6 (40.65M)

0.369x Doctor Strange 2 T-6 (21.35M)

0.567x Batman T-6 (24.54M)

 

T-7 Sunday(165 showings): 4405(+935)/25723 ATP: $13.22

0.972x Top Gun 2 T-7 (35.64M)

0.354x Doctor Strange 2 T-7 (13.78M)

0.667x Batman T-7 (21.74M)

[M37]

47 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I have a feeling that this tamping down on Dominion is somewhat premature. I think it can coexist just fine with Top Gun. Tonight will be a good indicator. Fallen Kingdom opened with 148 just one week after I2 blew up to more than 180, and I think those two had more audience overlap than Top Gun and Jurassic. 

  Reveal hidden contents

In fact, I kinda have a feeling that Lightyear is gonna suffer more from the situation. 

 

I agree on both accounts, given the differing demos (though I have been low on LY for a while), but the fact that TG2 is expanding its audience and is now the "cool movie" with 25-45 males does limit the top end potential

 

Cruise going all Hansel

 

[Nublar7]

30 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Absolutely still in the cards, IMO, and still more likely than not. Next few days will tell us more. I really wouldn't rule anything out just yet even though Maverick is clearly now the poster film of 2022 until proven otherwise. 

 

Still... the under 18 demo is JWD's golden egg.

What would you say is the floor right now for Dominion? Like the absolute lowest domestic opening weekend it could realistically see?

[keysersoze123]

32 minutes ago, Nublar7 said:

What would you say is the floor right now for Dominion? Like the absolute lowest domestic opening weekend it could realistically see?

~16m previews and 7x internal multi for 112m OW(That is not my prediction). But that is absolute floor I would think if reviews floodgates open and it has bad WOM. 

 

I am thinking 16-17m previews and slightly over 8x multi and so 130-140m OW. Dont forget previews are starting way earlier than FK. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am thinking 16-17m previews and slightly over 8x multi and so 130-140m OW. Dont forget previews are starting way earlier than FK. 

 

That would be disappointing but I can see it at this point. An opening in that range would be similar to $115-125M back when FK opened. Personally I'm thinking something like $18-19M x 8.5

[Cooper Legion]

I understand that JW has an expectation of blowing up final week, but on the other hand I also remember DS2 and TROS having really weak final Mon-Sun because of B+. Dominion also feels like a B+ is coming to me, so I would be pretty careful of assuming some V2/FK action for last minute save.

[Menor the Destroyer]

17 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

I understand that JW has an expectation of blowing up final week, but on the other hand I also remember DS2 and TROS having really weak final Mon-Sun because of B+. Dominion also feels like a B+ is coming to me, so I would be pretty careful of assuming some V2/FK action for last minute save.

V2 was a B+ and I think more comparable in terms of expectations  here than DS2 and TROS.

 

Also I don't know exactly what you mean by Monday and Sunday but DS2 had an amazing Sunday and a really good Monday as well before reviews.

Edited June 5, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Cooper Legion]

13 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

V2 was a B+ and I think more comparable in terms of expectations  here than DS2 and TROS.

 

Also I don't know exactly what you mean by Monday and Sunday but DS2 had an amazing Sunday and a really good Monday as well before reviews.

Overall sales from pre-release mon through ow sun is the period I mean. Reception can influence th and fri PS on mon-wed, but the impact on Th walkups and then the weekend trajectory is also important.
 

Venom CS was the same as the first, DS2 and TROS 2 notches below mcu/Dec SW typical. I would say franchise expectations for JWD were more A/A- level and the level of falling short of expected quality would be far more like DS2/TROS than V2 which basically didn’t fall short at all (expected to be 100 mins of nonsense campy schlock, was).

 

Edited June 5, 2022 by Legion and Thunder

[Grebacio]

On 6/4/2022 at 12:10 AM, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

What is the Elvis tracking so far? (Sorry if already discussed)

Bump