The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/9/2022 at 3:04 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Lightyear Megaplex

 

T-6 Wednesday(4 showings): 203(+49)/2146

T-7 Thursday(92 showings): 208(+58)/23022

Total Previews(96 showings): 411(+107)/25168

1.38x Ghostbusters Day 3 (6.20M, only comping Thurs didn't have GB Wed numbers)

0.746x Shang-Chi Day 3 (6.56M)

 

T-8 Friday(149 showings): 406(+97)/41968

2.32x Ghostbusters Day 3 (28.19M)

1.31x Shang-Chi Day 3 (27.02M)

 

T-9 Saturday(150 showings): 260(+75)/40755

2.24x Ghostbusters Day 3 (36.82M)

 

T-10 Sunday(148 showings): 84(+32)/41296

7.64x Ghostbusters Day 3 (83.41M)

 

Looks like Lightyear is targeting a huge Saturday to Sunday increase... Should probably just get rid of that Sunday comp lol

Lightyear Megaplex [3 days of sales]

 

T-3 Wednesday(4 showings): 287(+84)/2146

T-4 Thursday(92 showings): 388(+180)/23022

Total Previews(96 showings): 675(+264)/25168

4.17x Encanto T-4 (6.25M)

1.01x Ghostbusters T-4 (4.54M)

 

T-5 Friday(154 showings): 672(+266)/43006

0.960x Ghostbusters T-5 (11.67M)

 

T-6 Saturday(155 showings): 521(+261)/41630

0.810x Ghostbusters T-6 (13.31M)

 

T-7 Sunday(153 showings): 142(+58)/42334

1.18x Ghostbusters T-7 (12.88M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/9/2022 at 3:07 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Lightyear Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-6 Wednesday(2 showings): 161(+16)/470

T-7 Thursday(114 showings): 1091(+360)/17536

Total Previews(116 showings): 1252(+376)/18006

0.858x Ghostbusters Day 3 (3.86M)

 

T-8 Friday(120 showings): 1159(+205)/19522

1.01x Ghostbusters Day 3 (12.27M)

 

T-9 Saturday(138 showings): 1020(+188)/21801

0.976x Ghostbusters Day 3 (16.04M)

 

T-10 Sunday(122 showings): 822(+197)/19859

1.85x Ghostbusters Day 3 (20.17M)

Lightyear Alamo Drafthouse [3 days of sales]

 

T-3 Wednesday(2 showings): 212(+51)/470

T-4 Thursday(122 showings): 2258(+1167)/18419

Total Previews(124 showings): 2470(+1218)/18879

7.87x Encanto T-4 (11.80M)

0.789x Ghostbusters T-4 (3.55M)

 

T-5 Friday(121 showings): 2479(+1320)/19586

0.852x Ghostbusters T-5 (10.35M)

 

T-6 Saturday(140 showings): 2113(+1093)/22004

0.685x Ghostbusters T-6 (11.26M)

 

T-7 Sunday(121 showings): 1488(+666)/19535

0.974x Ghostbusters T-7 (10.64M)

 

Only comparing the Encanto previews for here and Megaplex because Thanksgiving will mess with the rest of the comps

Edited June 13, 2022 by Inceptionzq

[ZackM]

 

Just to make sure I have some Lightyear data to reference in the future:

 

 

Lightyear Alpha Chain Early Access Screening: The Andy Experience: T-3 days
6/12/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	151	152	2,729	33,571	8.13%
ATP
$22.43

 

 

Lightyear Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days
	Last Day
Showings Added	3,038
Seats Added	495,612
Seats Sold	26,720
6/12/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	420	3,038	26,720	495,612	5.39%
ATP
$17.04

 

[Eric the Minion]

23 hours ago, Eric the Last Dinosaur said:

Lightyear Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	103	416	19476	2.14%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 52

 

Comp

3.525x of Jungle Cruise T-5 (9.52M)

3.355x of Encanto T-5 (5.03M)

0.406x of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 T-5 (2.54M)

Lightyear Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	103	508	19476	2.61%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 92

 

Comp

3.409x of Jungle Cruise T-4 (9.2M)

3.528x of Encanto T-4 (5.29M)

0.437x of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 T-4 (2.73M)

[Eric the Minion]

23 hours ago, Eric the Last Dinosaur said:

Minions: The Rise of Gru Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-19 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	120	69	26275	0.26%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 16

 

Comp

0.172x of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 T-19 (1.07M)

Minions: The Rise of Gru Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-18 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	120	69	26275	0.26%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 0

 

Comp

0.169x of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 T-18 (1.06M)

[Eric the Minion]

22 hours ago, Eric the Last Dinosaur said:

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-40 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	95	11053	0.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 4

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-39 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	97	11053	0.88%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 2

[keysersoze123]

Lightyear

MTC1 wed - 2917/34071 65298.49 153 shows

MTC1 thu -  27298/533694 469974.88 3209 shows

MTC2 thu - 10459/321268 135834.67 2145 shows(This was as of morning today) 

 

MTC2 takes for ever and for some reason I pull in few more shows than Zack in MTC1. Anyway hopefully quiet before the storm once the reviews are out tomorrow. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Given the early tweets are not flattering, I'm expecting very mediocre and average reviews which means little to no substantial sales bump

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-40 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	84	13630	13704	74	0.54%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

10

 

Regal:      8/3969  [0.20% sold]
Matinee:    0/863  [0.00% | 0.00% of all tickets sold]

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-39 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	84	13622	13704	82	0.60%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

8

 

Regal:     11/3969  [0.28% sold]
Matinee:    1/863  [0.12% | 1.22% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Next report on Thr.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Minions 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	165	24943	25200	257	1.02%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

22

 

T-19 Comp

%

Sold T-19

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

Sonic 2

75.59

8

340

0/74

11108/11448

2.97%

5847

4.40%

4.72m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Minions 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:         21/5129  [0.41% sold]
Matinee:    15/2080  [0.72% | 5.84% of all tickets sold]

 

Minions 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	165	24907	25200	293	1.16%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

36

 

T-18 Comp

%

Sold T-18

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

Sonic 2

78.34

34

374

0/74

11074/11448

3.27%

5847

5.01%

4.90m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Minions 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        33/5129  [0.64% sold]
Matinee:    15/2080  [0.72% | 5.12% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 6/12/2022 at 12:07 AM, Porthos said:

 

Lightyear Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	129	15410	16476	1066	6.47%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

198

 

T-5 Comps           BEWARE DIFFERENCE IN PRE-SALE LENGTH EDITION

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	115.87		122	920		0/117	16629/17549	5.24%		3034	35.14%		5.21m
Sonic 2	89.66		145	1189		0/92	11748/12937	9.19%		3951	26.98%		5.60m
SC	49.70		183	2145		0/113	15466/17611	12.18%		5847	18.23%		4.37m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Lightyear's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

Wednesday Sales:      489/1325 [36.91% sold] [+83 tickets]
Thursday Sales:          577/15151 [3.81% sold]  [+115 tickets]
    
Regal:        60/3284  [1.83% sold]
Matinee:    58/1683  [3.45% | 5.44% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

FWIW, the extremely unofficial comp of TS4 gives around 4m to 4.3m, depending on whether or not I adjust by the comp by .9 or .85 to account for various differences between Sacto 2019 and Sacto Now.  FWIW, TS4 did over-perform more than a little bit in Sacramento, so something to keep in mind as Lightyear numbers start to roll in.  Gonna give it a bit of a think and might include TS4, more for curiosity's sake than anything else.

 

Lightyear Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	129	15223	16476	1253	7.61%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

187

 

T-4 Comps           BEWARE DIFFERENCE IN PRE-SALE LENGTH EDITION

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	125.93		75	995		0/117	16554/17549	5.67%		3034	41.30%		5.67m
Sonic 2	92.06		172	1361		0/92	11557/12918	10.54%		3951	31.71%		5.75m
SC	52.08		261	2406		0/113	15205/17611	13.66%		5847	21.43%		4.58m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Lightyear's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP***

Lightyear = 0.42185x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-4 [4.56m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2019 to 2022.

 

Wednesday Sales:    545/1325 [41.13% sold] [+56 tickets]
Thursday Sales:       708/15151 [4.67% sold] [+131 tickets]
    
Regal:       85/3284  [2.59% sold]
Matinee:    64/1683  [3.80% | 5.11% of all tickets sold]

Edited June 16, 2022 by Porthos

[titanic2187]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Lightyear

MTC1 wed - 2917/34071 65298.49 153 shows

MTC1 thu -  27298/533694 469974.88 3209 shows

MTC2 thu - 10459/321268 135834.67 2145 shows(This was as of morning today) 

 

MTC2 takes for ever and for some reason I pull in few more shows than Zack in MTC1. Anyway hopefully quiet before the storm once the reviews are out tomorrow. 

Am not sure if I am interpreting this correctly, but none of the numbers here are pointing to a above 100m opening like that many suggest. In fact , it may not even come close. 

[Hilpkioy]

Don't think we should be expecting TS numbers for this film.  It's like a Captain America Film outside Avengers, could potentially do well. But obviously not Avengers level well. 

[XXR & Friends]

Happy “Thor: Love & Thunder” first sales day! I’m going to throw out an early previews prediction of $29M. 
 

I know that it’s summer so that will technically allow more people to go see it as opposed to an April or May date, but I don’t see it matching MOM just on the hype factor. I do expect stronger WOM though and a better weekend multiplier. 

[M37]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Lightyear Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	129	15223	16476	1253	7.61%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

187

 

T-4 Comps           BEWARE DIFFERENCE IN PRE-SALE LENGTH EDITION

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	125.93		75	995		0/117	16554/17549	5.67%		3034	41.30%		5.67m
Sonic 2	92.06		172	1361		0/92	11557/12918	10.54%		3951	31.71%		5.75m
SC	52.08		261	2406		0/113	15205/17611	13.66%		5847	21.43%		4.58m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Lightyear's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP***

Lightyear = 0.42185x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-4 [4.56m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2019 to 2022.

 

Tuesday Sales:    545/1325 [41.13% sold] [+56 tickets]
Thursday Sales:    708/15151 [4.67% sold] [+131 tickets]
    
Regal:       85/3284  [2.59% sold]
Matinee:    64/1683  [3.80% | 5.11% of all tickets sold]

Looking at these comps, and given the short sales window, should expect Lightyear to have a higher growth rate from here than both Sonic (+190%) and Shang-Chi (+218%) to the finish line. Probably looking a 4K-5K total in ticket sales for Sacto, but with limited PLF probably a lower $/ticket ratio, a Thursday in ~$6.0-$7.5 million range until we get more clarity

 

TS4 had a 10x IM in summer 2019 (but sans Father's Day), Sonic had only an 11.25x in April, difficult seeing LY hitting double digit IM, but maybe close. Gonna bump my OW range up a smidge to $65-$75M, but difficult to see a huge breakout coming unless sales really take off

[Eric the Minion]

 

It's time.

[XXR & Friends]

Well idk what’s going on but several AMC’s haven’t posted Thor times/tickets. I don’t understand how they missed the rollout.

[Deep Wang]

Done, got them no problem.

[Joyous Legion]

Successful purchase first time amc imax, flop incoming.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/11/2022 at 8:34 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Phone	T-12	Jax	6	16	0	27	1,959	1.38%
		Phx	5	13	2	26	2,108	1.23%
		Ral	7	18	2	30	1,933	1.55%
	Total		18	47	4	83	6,000	1.38%
Black Phone (EA)	T-4	Jax	1	1	0	29	60	48.33%
		Phx	1	1	1	31	106	29.25%
	Total		2	2	1	60	166	36.14%
Elvis	T-12	Jax	6	26	6	87	4,520	1.92%
		Phx	6	16	2	73	2,103	3.47%
		Ral	8	20	6	74	2,074	3.57%
	Total		20	62	14	234	8,697	2.69%
Elvis (EA)	T-11	Jax	2	2	1	70	403	17.37%
	Total		2	2	1	70	403	17.37%
Lightyear	T-5	Jax	6	75	8	185	10,221	1.81%
		Phx	6	69	23	224	11,262	1.99%
		Ral	8	39	16	130	3,950	3.29%
	Total		20	183	47	539	25,433	2.12%
Lightyear (EA)	T-4	Jax	3	3	6	56	600	9.33%
		Phx	1	1	-3	6	410	1.46%
		Ral	1	1	0	4	261	1.53%
	Total		5	5	3	66	1,271	5.19%
Minions 2	T-19	Jax	6	101	11	46	16,556	0.28%
		Phx	6	66	8	68	12,191	0.56%
		Ral	8	52	6	50	6,699	0.75%
	Total		20	219	25	164	35,446	0.46%
Nope	T-40	Jax	7	51	1	22	8,591	0.26%
		Phx	6	20	2	43	4,344	0.99%
		Ral	7	22	8	33	3,210	1.03%
	Total		20	93	11	98	16,145	0.61%

 

Yesterday's run was much later than normal. JW3 taking all of the focus.  Friday's are normally slow for future release presales.  Pick your narrative; it was a slow day.

 

Lightyear (Thu) T-5 comps

 - Bad Guys - missed

 - Encanto (Tue) - 4.94x (7.42m)

 - Sonic 2 - .8x (3.99m)

Sonic is the only comp I really like for this; just keeping the others in since I have them. Boss Baby 2/Peter Rabbit 2 were much too small (48/43 tickets sold at this point) and Space Jam/Paw Patrol were OD with no previews.  The only other PG movie I have is Downton Abbey (1.48m comp?)

 

Black Phone (Thu) T-12 comps

 - Ghostbusters - .2x (850k)

 - Morbius - .15x (856k)

 - Suicide Squad - .296x (1.22m)

Don't love these comps either, but the Suicide Squad comp has hardly changed in five days so... maybe?

 

Elvis (Thu) T-12 comps

 - No Time to Die - missed

 - F9 - .333x (2.36m)

 - Ghostbusters - .56x (2.34m)

 - FB3 - .353x (2.12m)

I sound like a broken record, but same story.  I do think it's interesting how many movies are giving the same number at this point though (Morbius, NTTD EA, Sonic EA all in the same range too)

 

Minions 2 T-19 comp

 - Sonic 2 - missed

 - F9 - .443x (3.15m)

 

Not even gonna try for Nope.  The earliest horror I tracked was Black Phone that had 24 tickets sold in its first day.  Historically horror is not heavy on presales so I wait until the week before release.  I'll keep it in the updates but probably no comps for a few weeks at least.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Phone	T-10	Jax	6	16	3	30	1,959	1.53%
		Phx	5	13	8	34	2,108	1.61%
		Ral	7	18	6	36	1,933	1.86%
	Total		18	47	17	100	6,000	1.67%
Black Phone (EA)	T-2	Jax	1	1	6	35	60	58.33%
		Phx	1	1	3	34	106	32.08%
	Total		2	2	9	69	166	41.57%
Elvis	T-10	Jax	6	26	11	98	4,520	2.17%
		Phx	6	16	5	78	2,103	3.71%
		Ral	8	20	4	78	2,074	3.76%
	Total		20	62	20	254	8,697	2.92%
Elvis (EA)	T-9	Jax	2	2	2	72	403	17.87%
	Total		2	2	2	72	403	17.87%
Lightyear	T-3	Jax	6	75	52	237	10,221	2.32%
		Phx	6	69	76	300	11,262	2.66%
		Ral	8	40	59	189	4,068	4.65%
	Total		20	184	187	726	25,551	2.84%
Lightyear (EA)	T-2	Jax	3	3	22	78	600	13.00%
		Phx	1	1	13	19	410	4.63%
		Ral	1	1	2	6	261	2.30%
	Total		5	5	37	103	1,271	8.10%
Minions 2	T-17	Jax	6	101	11	57	16,556	0.34%
		Phx	6	66	9	77	12,191	0.63%
		Ral	8	52	15	65	6,699	0.97%
	Total		20	219	35	199	35,446	0.56%
Nope	T-38	Jax	7	51	9	31	8,591	0.36%
		Phx	6	20	9	52	4,344	1.20%
		Ral	7	22	9	42	3,210	1.31%
	Total		20	93	27	125	16,145	0.77%

 

*New sales since Saturday morning*

 

Lightyear (Thu) T-3 comps

 - Bad Guys - 7.56x (8.7m)

 - Encanto (Tue) - 3.8x (5.7m)

 - Sonic 2 - .82x (4.09m)

 

Black Phone (Thu) T-10 comps

 - Ghostbusters - .21x (877k)

 - Morbius - .163x (930k)

 - Suicide Squad - .331x (1.36m)

 

Elvis (Thu) T-10 comps

 - No Time to Die - .54x (2.8m)

 - F9 - .314x (2.23m)

 - Ghostbusters - .537x (2.23m)

 - FB3 - .302x (1.81m)

 

Minions 2 T-17 comp

 - Sonic 2 - .726x (3.62m)

 

Not even gonna try for Nope.  The earliest horror I tracked was Black Phone that had 24 tickets sold in its first day.  Historically horror is not heavy on presales so I wait until the week before release.  I'll keep it in the updates but probably no comps for a few weeks at least.

 

Now on to Thor...