The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[filmlover]

Would anyone be surprised to learn that WB is probably sending Disney "thank you" notes for ultimately bypassing theaters with Turning Red so that way their wouldn't need to be a fight for bigger auditorium space beginning the weekend after? March is looking to be completely dead otherwise outside of The Lost City on the last weekend of the month.

[Joyous Legion]

The initial sets for NWH were notably dumb small iirc

Edited February 8, 2022 by Product Driven Legion

[Porthos]

33 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

The initial sets for NWH were notably dumb small iirc

 

Not locally, they weren't.   They were the largest I've ever seen, even controlling for the number of theaters I track.

 

That doesn't mean they didn't anticipate the level of demand correctly.  But for two-and-a-half weeks out, it was a ton.

 

Also, the show count increased by nearly 40% within four days, which still beat Endgame's jump.

 

I suppose there are two things which can be true.  1) Theaters set aside a ludicrous number of showtimes for NWH AND 2) they still underpredicted the demand out there.  

Edited February 8, 2022 by Porthos

[Eric is Quiet]

Death on the Nile Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	39	148	6874	2.15%

 

Comp

0.095x of No Time to Die T-3 (598K)

4.933x of The Last Duel T-3 (1.73M)

1.042x of West Side Story T-3 (834K)

 

The NTTD comp is one we should take with a grain of salt, only because it's on a different league compared to this film. And...yeah, this seems about on par with expectations, despite just two comparisons. It probably indicates an opening in the double digits unless it really gets hammered by Sunday. I guess that's better than a lot of other movies of its ilk over the past couple months.

[Eric is Quiet]

Marry Me Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	32	64	4622	1.38%

 

Comp

0.127x of Cruella Thu+Fri T-3 (977K)

0.451x of West Side Story T-3 (361K)

 

I mean...I don't have anything interesting here to say. It's pretty low in raw sales and I don't really see it going super high. So...on to the next one.

[Joyous Legion]

24 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I suppose there are two things which can be true.  1) Theaters set aside a ludicrous number of showtimes for NWH AND 2) they still underpredicted the demand out there.  

Yeah, that’s what I mean. NWH was the only game in town that weekend with 12x the business of everything else combined, far exceeding Endgame’s previous record of 8x. I think even the amount of shows it ended up with was probably below what made sense under the circumstances (not that I expect it made much difference).

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

GOODNESS GRACIOUS are theaters starved.  I have NEVER seen an initial set like that one before.  Not even No Way Home was that many (225 vs 233 [+10 more]).

As I mentioned its PAIN to track such large number of shows right from go for many days. Having full slate out say 3-4 days before release is manageable.

[Eric is Quiet]

On 2/6/2022 at 10:41 PM, Eric Knoxville said:

Uncharted Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	297	10285	2.89%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 16

 

Comp

0.343x of F9 T-11 (2.44M)

0.993x of The Suicide Squad T-11 (4.07M)

0.383x of Venom 2 T-11 (4.44M)

0.565x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-11 (2.54M)

Uncharted Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	301	10285	2.93%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 4

 

Comp

0.338x of F9 T-10 (2.4M)

0.962x of The Suicide Squad T-10 (3.94M)

0.354x of Venom 2 T-10 (4.11M)

0.519x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-10 (2.33M)

 

I'd be lying if I said this wasn't a good day today, especially as we are pretty close towards release, but these types of bumps/flukes happen and I feel confident this is just an outlier. The next few days will really confirm how this movie ends up by the end.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Product Driven Legion said:

The initial sets for NWH were notably dumb small iirc

Did you forget burning 2 hours on just filling seats data.

[charlie Jatinder]

Important factor is whether WB be smart with that matinee pricing or not. The only dumb thing Sony did was that.

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Yeah, that’s what I mean. NWH was the only game in town that weekend with 12x the business of everything else combined, far exceeding Endgame’s previous record of 8x. I think even the amount of shows it ended up with was probably below what made sense under the circumstances (not that I expect it made much difference).

 

I just disagree that it was "dumb small", even if you're employing hyperbole, as it is far easier to add more showtimes than cut them back if one over-estimated demand.

 

As it is, I think they met demand just about right as time went on, given the lack of sellouts.  Yes, covid-hesitancy was a factor when it came to lack of sellouts, but not that big of a factor.

 

Where theaters (and others) fell down was setting enough bandwidth aside to handle the server crunch.  Or at least get their "waiting rooms" back up and running.  So, yeah, that was a dumb decision.  But number of showtimes?  Just can't convince me that initial, ramp up, or ending sets weren't fine.

[Eric is Quiet]

1 hour ago, Product Driven Legion said:

The initial sets for NWH were notably dumb small iirc

Dawg NWH took me like 3-4 hours a day to track. Don't you dare pull this on me.

[Joyous Legion]

24 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Did you forget burning 2 hours on just filling seats data.

I remember when you had to burn another 3 hours when they immediately expanded a bunch from the initial sets… because they realized they were way to small 

Edited February 8, 2022 by Product Driven Legion

[Joyous Legion]

30 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I just disagree that it was "dumb small", even if you're employing hyperbole, as it is far easier to add more showtimes than cut them back if one over-estimated demand.

 

As it is, I think they met demand just about right as time went on, given the lack of sellouts.  Yes, covid-hesitancy was a factor when it came to lack of sellouts, but not that big of a factor.

 

Where theaters (and others) fell down was setting enough bandwidth aside to handle the server crunch.  Or at least get their "waiting rooms" back up and running.  So, yeah, that was a dumb decision.  But number of showtimes?  Just can't convince me that initial, ramp up, or ending sets weren't fine.

Well, it isn’t really consequential what size the initial set is tbf. But the rapid ramp up from that initial set (which, as you yourself pointed out was more than endgame) indicates that the initial set was probably low from the theaters perspective and they would have gone higher if they had a better grasp on demand for wss, NWH, and alley. And based on the per show occupancy I bet theaters could have done more total business that weekend by cutting half their final nonNWH shows for more NWH shows.

Edited February 8, 2022 by Product Driven Legion

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

And based on the per show occupancy I bet theaters could have done more total business that weekend by cutting half their final nonNWH shows for more NWH shows.

 

At some point though, actual contracts with other movies come into play.  "Play fair" is the phrase EC used, I believe.

 

[Joyous Legion]

50 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

At some point though, actual contracts with other movies come into play.  "Play fair" is the phrase EC used, I believe.

 

Right. And as EC and I agree, the US norms around theatrical contracts are excessively limiting to little benefit for either party     
 

It doesn’t really matter in a practical sense for any past or future megaopeners, but their (relatively) low screen counts vs 6 week old movies making nothing is philosophically/aesthetically displeasing and a minor personal hobbyhorse 😛 

Edited February 8, 2022 by Product Driven Legion

[Porthos]

43 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Right. And as EC and I agree, the US norms around theatrical contracts are excessively limiting to little benefit for either party     
 

It doesn’t really matter in a practical sense for any past or future megaopeners, but their (relatively) low screen counts vs 6 week old movies making nothing is philosophically/aesthetically displeasing and a minor personal hobbyhorse 😛 

 

Yeah, but think about how "aesthetically pleasing" those sexy legs are, thanks in part to the screen count shenanigans. 👍 

 

(probs should stop now lest mods send frowny faces in our direction over this little digression )

[Napoleon]

5 hours ago, Eric Knoxville said:

Marry Me Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	32	64	4622	1.38%

 

Comp

0.127x of Cruella Thu+Fri T-3 (977K)

0.451x of West Side Story T-3 (361K)

 

I mean...I don't have anything interesting here to say. It's pretty low in raw sales and I don't really see it going super high. So...on to the next one.

What you're thinking for the OW number? Will it open under Death On the Nile?

[efialtes76]

34 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

What you're thinking for the OW number? Will it open under Death On the Nile?

Of course!

[Eric is Quiet]

40 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

What you're thinking for the OW number? Will it open under Death On the Nile?

Yes.