The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

It might just be a function of Avatar 2 being penciled into the PLF, 3D and other large auditoriums for the entire 3 week holiday period, unlike NWH, which didn't go on sale until a month later (and with more releases behind it competing for screen space). But I also wouldn't be surprised if Puss was currently tracking below Sing; just think its going to outrun those expectations, as Sonic and Minions did this year (for similar reasons)

I dunno, I always felt matching the $149M of the last Puss in Boots movie would’ve been considered a major win for it given that it’s been 11 years (a lifetime for any IP to be completely dormant these days, especially for one geared towards children) and the fact DreamWorks has really lost a lot of the industry power that they had at their peak. Not sure it’s fair to compare it to Sonic or Minions, especially when those movies didn’t open within such close proximity of an obvious 800 pound gorilla and will have to make do with whatever auditorium space it gets because of it.

[CJohn]

43 minutes ago, M37 said:

I mean, Bombshell grossed $31M in 2019, despite never expanding beyond 1700 locations. She Said is on track to maybe pull in a third of that?

 

The entire rest of the year looks awfully bleak. I know its been discussed how the specialty/drama market has been struggling, but now it seems like the industry has kinda given up? Tar has basically come and gone, Armageddon barely made noise. Till goes wide on Halloween weekend, then loses 60% of show vs BPWF and will barely be around through Thanksgiving weekend. Bones and All looks to have a forgettable TG debut, expansions in December may not do much. Fabelmans has potential, but going PVOD before Christmas doesn't suggest confidence in a long run. Banshees is doing fine, but Oct Searchlight release French Dispatch maxed out at 1200 locations last year, so this may be the peak. Have to see how The Whale does, but that one seems to be a tough sell IMO. And it's not like there's a packed release calendar competing for screens, yet these titles are just being pushed aside quickly

 

On the wide release front, Menu, Devotion, and Violent Night have limited potential, Disney has given up on Strange World, and their Avatar push thusfar has been ... curious. The film with the most buzz is Glass Onion, which is only a 1 week engagement. I think Puss in Boots has real surprise potential ($200M+), but my lower expectations for Avatar 2 are documented, and if it does come in at the ~$600M range, there just isn't much else to push up the December numbers.

 

tl;dr - YUCK

(/end of rant)

The industry doesn't care anymore. These movies are being thrown at streaming services and VOD stores at the speed of light (Fabelmans in mid December, Strange World on Christmas Day). People aren't showing up for anything that isn't a rollercoaster spectacle, tons of movies tanking below 10M or 15M. People who think theaters have a healthy life ahead are fooling themselves.

[TwoMisfits]

7 minutes ago, CJohn said:

The industry doesn't care anymore. These movies are being thrown at streaming services and VOD stores at the speed of light (Fabelmans in mid December, Strange World on Christmas Day). People aren't showing up for anything that isn't a rollercoaster spectacle, tons of movies tanking below 10M or 15M. People who think theaters have a healthy life ahead are fooling themselves.

 

Well, as we mentioned on the weekend thread, the 25+ Caucasian liberal is not showing up to theaters in any real numbers anymore...

 

So, to respond, there should probably be more movies skewed to both more ethnic audiences and more conservative Caucasian audiences...and prestige movies, which used to have adult Caucasian liberals as their lifeblood, should probably be the streaming material.

 

I mean, Black Panther just went huge without much of the Caucasian audience...and now 2 episodes (not even a movie) of a 3rd season of a Christian TV show is blowing up presales among conservative Caucasians.

 

So, rather than convincing either of the "coming to theater" groups to embrace the formerly skewing adult Caucasian liberal prestige movie material, maybe we should just give them what they want.

 

At least til the audience starts showing they will come back...

 

[filmlover]

With what’s looking to be very divisive reviews and a 3 hour running time, I doubt Babylon is making much more than Vice did in 2018.

 

Pretty sure the biggest wildcard for the holidays this year is the Whitney bio. Musician biopics are obviously hot right now, but this one is a fascinating study due to the recency of it all (Elvis and Mercury had been dead for decades at the time of the release of their biopics, while Houston’s premature passing was just over 10 years ago as the culmination of a decade-long downward spiral that played out in the spotlight). Guess it depends on how much of a downer it ends up being.

[Derpity]

Looking at the success of The Chosen, it's so weird to me that Game of Thrones never did this (nor House of the Dragon for that matter).

 

It would be a win, win, win -- HBO would get paid, theaters would get paid, and viewers would love seeing dragons on the big screen.

 

Surprised Disney has never done it as well with Mandalorian, Andor, etc.

[ChipDerby]

Oh, The Chosen is a TV SHOW???

 

Yeah I'm not putting that in the Derby.

[efialtes76]

Very harsh drops.

BA-$0.445M(-78%)

Lyle-$0.1M(-87%)

Edited November 15, 2022 by efialtes76

[GOGODanca]

6 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Very harsh drops.

BA-$0.445M(-78%)

Lyle-$0.1M(-87%)

-66% and 51% respectively from last monday

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Chosen OD	T-4	Jax	5	25	616	616	2,189	28.14%
		Phx	3	28	492	492	4,946	9.95%
		Ral	7	21	745	745	1,819	40.96%
	Total		15	74	1,853	1,853	8,954	20.69%
Glass Onion OD	T-9	Jax	4	16	22	121	1,847	6.55%
		Phx	2	8	0	81	736	11.01%
		Ral	2	11	18	175	896	19.53%
	Total		8	35	40	377	3,479	10.84%
She Said	T-3	Jax	5	11	0	6	1,042	0.58%
		Phx	3	6	0	3	352	0.85%
		Ral	6	13	4	10	785	1.27%
	Total		14	30	4	19	2,179	0.87%
The Menu	T-3	Jax	4	10	14	31	966	3.21%
		Phx	5	12	13	48	1,389	3.46%
		Ral	8	20	25	72	1,495	4.82%
	Total		17	42	52	151	3,850	3.92%
The Menu (EA)	T-1	Jax	1	1	17	24	81	29.63%
		Phx	3	3	29	38	239	15.90%
	Total		4	4	46	62	320	19.38%
	T-2	Ral	1	1	18	18	50	36.00%
	Total		1	1	18	18	50	36.00%

*All new sales since Thursday morning

**One theater in Phx is down and I couldn't pull up charts for it for any movie/day.

 

The Menu T-3 comps

 - Amsterdam - 1.438 (791k)

 - Crawdads - .346x (693k)

 

I mentioned in the showtime report that there are AMC EA on Tuesday and Regal EA on Wednesday.  Found out today that the Regal shows are not showing on Fandango; it looks like they are only on the corporate site. 

 

She Said T-3 comps

 - Elvis - missed

 - House of Gucci - .086x (112k)

 - King Richard - .13x (252k)

 

Chosen T-4 comps (opening day vs previews)

 - Downton Abbey + EA - 2.36x (4.24m)

 

 

Glass Onion T-9 comps (Opening day vs previews)

 - NTTD + EA - .552x (3.48m)

 - F9 - .436x (3.1m)

 - Ghostbusters + EA - missed

 - Top Gun 2 + EA - .108x (2.09m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bones and All	T-7	Jax	5	8	2	2	719	0.28%
		Phx	4	6	4	4	487	0.82%
		Ral	6	9	7	7	694	1.01%
	Total		15	23	13	13	1,900	0.68%
Chosen OD	T-3	Jax	5	25	58	674	2,189	30.79%
		Phx	3	42	121	613	5,872	10.44%
		Ral	7	22	17	762	1,916	39.77%
	Total		15	89	196	2,049	9,977	20.54%
Glass Onion OD	T-8	Jax	4	16	19	140	1,847	7.58%
		Phx	2	8	1	82	736	11.14%
		Ral	2	11	10	185	896	20.65%
	Total		8	35	30	407	3,479	11.70%
She Said	T-2	Jax	5	11	1	7	1,042	0.67%
		Phx	3	6	4	7	352	1.99%
		Ral	6	13	1	11	785	1.40%
	Total		14	30	6	25	2,179	1.15%
Strange World	T-7	Jax	5	18	5	5	1,938	0.26%
		Phx	4	12	4	4	1,650	0.24%
		Ral	5	14	0	0	1,736	0.00%
	Total		14	44	9	9	5,324	0.17%
The Menu	T-2	Jax	4	10	7	38	966	3.93%
		Phx	5	12	8	56	1,389	4.03%
		Ral	8	24	12	84	1,963	4.28%
	Total		17	46	27	178	4,318	4.12%
The Menu (EA)	T-0	Jax	1	1	4	28	81	34.57%
		Phx	3	3	55	93	239	38.91%
	Total		4	4	59	121	320	37.81%
	T-1	Ral	1	1	0	18	50	36.00%
	Total		1	1	0	18	50	36.00%

*The theater site that was down in Phx has been resolved so those new sales numbers may be a little inflated

 

The Menu T-2 comps

 - Amsterdam - 1.424x (783k)

 - Crawdads - .313x (627k)

 

She Said T-2 comps

 - Elvis - .034x (108k)

 - House of Gucci - .081x (106k)

 - King Richard - .12x (233k)

 

Chosen T-3 comps (opening day vs previews)

 - Downton Abbey + EA - 2.36x (4.24m)

 - JJK - 1.696x (4.885m)

 - MHA - 1.897x (5.47m)

 - One Piece - 3.37x (5.72m)

 

Added some anime comps since they seem to be overwhelmingly pre-sales heavy as well.

 

Bones and All T-7 comps

 - Crawdads - .056x (112k)

 - Antlers - 1.182x (437k)

 - Smile - .203x (345k)

 - Last Night in Soho - .325x (244k)

 

Glass Onion T-8 comps (Opening day vs previews)

 - NTTD + EA - .534x (3.36m)

 - F9 - .452x (3.21m)

 - Ghostbusters + EA - .743x (3.34m)

 - Top Gun 2 + EA - .112x (2.17m)

[GOGODanca]

Passion of the christ 2 would do numbers

[Verrows]

5 hours ago, filmlover said:

It’s being placed among the smallest auditoriums everywhere for Thanksgiving weekend and has barely sold anything near me so far. It’s gonna flop something ugly.

Not surprised at all.

 

Like, where's the wholesome stuff this holiday season? The only Christmas themed movie is...Violent Night.

[Verrows]

3 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Well, as we mentioned on the weekend thread, the 25+ Caucasian liberal is not showing up to theaters in any real numbers anymore...

 

So, to respond, there should probably be more movies skewed to both more ethnic audiences and more conservative Caucasian audiences...and prestige movies, which used to have adult Caucasian liberals as their lifeblood, should probably be the streaming material.

 

I mean, Black Panther just went huge without much of the Caucasian audience...and now 2 episodes (not even a movie) of a 3rd season of a Christian TV show is blowing up presales among conservative Caucasians.

 

So, rather than convincing either of the "coming to theater" groups to embrace the formerly skewing adult Caucasian liberal prestige movie material, maybe we should just give them what they want.

 

At least til the audience starts showing they will come back...

 

I like this.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Verrows said:

Not surprised at all.

 

Like, where's the wholesome stuff this holiday season? The only Christmas themed movie is...Violent Night.

The COVID-induced production issues for the past two years + Avatar pretty much scared almost everyone away from this holiday season aside from some prestige movies with Oscar aspirations and a couple of animated movies hoping to reverse the "families have abandoned the multiplex" narrative.

[Verrows]

12 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The COVID-induced production issues for the past two years + Avatar pretty much scared almost everyone away from this holiday season aside from some prestige movies with Oscar aspirations and a couple of animated movies hoping to reverse the "families have abandoned the multiplex" narrative.

Looking at next year's schedule, do you think there'll be an improvement or do you think studios will sort of give up then as well? The schedule does look a little fuller, though still lacking.

Edited November 15, 2022 by Verrows

[filmlover]

Just now, Verrows said:

Looking at next year's schedule, do you think there'll be an improvement or do you think studios will sort of give up then as well?

We'll have to wait and see how the schedule for next holiday shapes up over the next several because I doubt it's even close to final right now.

[el sid]

On 11/14/2022 at 9:44 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Did you have EA shows for The Menu for any of your theaters for 11/15?  I couldn't remember if you usually include those or not.

No, I don't include them. These are pure Thursday sales. 

So the numbers were quite decent to my surprise.

 

I was too busy and also too lazy to count today. Tomorrow The Menu, She Said and also Glass Onion because of the so far really convincing presales.

[el sid]

13 hours ago, snarkmachine said:

How’s Bones and All tracking?

It had no or almost no showtimes in my theaters. That's why I didn't mention it. But in the few theaters "nearby" the sales were pretty decent.

 

PS: I see that I have to add The Chosen tomorrow. I counted Christmas with the Chosen last year, so I have a fitting comp and the reports here made me very curious 🙂.

[The Wild Eric]

On 11/14/2022 at 9:54 PM, Eric Killmonger said:

She Said Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	23	26	2511	1.04%

 

Comp

0.176x of Dear Evan Hansen T-3 (140K)

0.867x of The Last Duel T-3 (303K)

0.183x of West Side Story T-3 (146K)

0.176x of Death on the Nile T-3 (193K)

0.133x of Dog T-3 (168K)

0.134x of Crawdads T-3 (308K)

0.684x of Bros T-3 (342K)

0.144x of Amsterdam T-3 (79K)

She Said Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	23	35	2511	1.04%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 9

 

Comp

0.207x of Dear Evan Hansen T-2 (166K)

0.814x of The Last Duel T-2 (285K)

0.180x of West Side Story T-2 (144K)

0.195x of Death on the Nile T-2 (215K)

0.170x of Dog T-2 (214K)

0.135x of Crawdads T-2 (310K)

0.729x of Bros T-2 (365K)

0.179x of Amsterdam T-2 (98K)

[The Wild Eric]

23 hours ago, Eric Killmonger said:

The Menu Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	31	183	3688	4.96%

 

Comp

1.355x of Old T-3 (2.03M)

6.536x of The Night House T-3 (1.7M)

3.210x of Antlers T-3 (1.19M)

2.473x of X T-3 (1.09M)

4.463x of Firestarter T-3 (1.67M)

2.905x of Men T-3 (1.23M)

3.268x of The Invitation T-3 (2.53M)

2.205x of Barbarian T-3 (1.87M)

3.812x of Prey for the Devil T-3 (2.52M)

The Menu Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	43	259	5336	4.85%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 76

 

Comp

1.363x of Old T-2 (2.04M)

6.475x of The Night House T-2 (1.68M)

3.648x of Antlers T-2 (1.35M)

2.785x of X T-2 (1.22M)

4.465x of Firestarter T-2 (1.67M)

2.616x of Men T-2 (1.11M)

3.809x of The Invitation T-2 (2.95M)

1.962x of Barbarian T-2 (1.67M)

4.317x of Prey for the Devil T-2 (2.85M)

[The Wild Eric]

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-36 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	56	26	9591	0.27%