The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[JustLurking]

This isn't the thread to discuss this stuff yall

[Ronin46]

As has been asked already, lets leave the thread for the trackers to post there information.

[Eric is Quiet]

Moderation

 

We have other threads to talk about The Flash, Shazam 2, Transformers, etc. Let people talk about the numbers please, okay?

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Moving On T-2: 21.49% Awareness, 5.39 Interest

Air T-21: 24.42%, 5.3

Paint T-23: 19.17%, 5.08

Beau is Afraid T-37: 10%, 4.69

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 T-51: 55.22%, 6.49

The Machine T-72: 16.96%, 5.32

 

Shazam! Fury of the Gods T-2: 55.22% Awareness, 5.61 Interest

Final Awareness: 92% chance of 20M, 77% chance of 30M, 54% chance of 40M, 38% chance of 50M, 23% chance of 60M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 20M, 30% chance of 30M, 22% chance of 40M, 15% chance of 50M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 60M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 70M

 

John Wick: Chapter 4 T-9: 61.89% Awareness, 6.89 Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 90% chance of 50M, 80% chance of 70M, 60% chance of 100M

Final Interest: 100% chance of 100M

 

Chevalier T-37: 13.84% Awareness, 4.69 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 37% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 19% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 5M

Original - Low Interest: 43% chance of 5M, 29% chance of 10M

 

The Covenant T-37: 24.64% Awareness, 5.37 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 62% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 53% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 73% chance of 5M, 45% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 73% chance of 5M, 36% chance of 10M

[Hiccup23]

DnD Sneak Peaks 3/26 (All Marcus Theater Locations- 21 theaters - one showing each)

 

286/2,499 - 11.5% percent sold

 

Edited March 15, 2023 by Hiccup23

[Dragoncaine]

Shazam is so dead

[TalismanRing]

NYC Regal (Local) 6pm)

 

Shazam 2: 44/1863

 

Wed Comps

Shazam 1:  $2.012m

Ghostbusters;  $2m

Avatar 2:  $2.94m

Black Widow:  $1.75m

Shang-Chi:  $1.17m   (SC over indexed about 50% due to high % Asian pop - so closer to $1.75m)

Birds Of Prey:  $1.66m   (Rated R)

The Suicide Squad:   $2.34m  (Rated R)

 

Black Adam #s for Thur - 200/2638 - if Shazam 2 jumps 30/50/70% tomorrow -  $2.17m/$2.5m/$2.84m comps

 

[keysersoze123]

20 hours ago, John Marston said:

 

 

aren't Creature Commandos and Authority tv shows? Which confuses me. Relying on TV to build up your universe seems like a bad idea. Apparently the Green Lanterns are going to be introduced in an HBO Max show, WTAF! 

Authority is a movie based on variety. https://variety.com/2023/film/news/dc-universe-superman-legacy-batman-green-lantern-supergirl-booster-gold-1235507426/. You are however right about Creature Commandoes. I should have instead mentioned Swamp thing which is the other offbeat movie planned. Hopefully budgets are low for those movies and WB dont dump them. 

[GOGODanca]

i dunno if any of you guys are tracking saturday or sunday sales but if you are is there any noticeable uptick or higher than normal

[TheScarecrow]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Authority is a movie based on variety. https://variety.com/2023/film/news/dc-universe-superman-legacy-batman-green-lantern-supergirl-booster-gold-1235507426/. You are however right about Creature Commandoes. I should have instead mentioned Swamp thing which is the other offbeat movie planned. Hopefully budgets are low for those movies and WB dont dump them. 

 

There's really no comparison to be made between The Authority and Swamp Thing and Shazam.

 

The most analogous thing to The Authority would be The Boys. Swamp Thing is horror.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

NYC Regal (Local) 6pm)

 

Shazam 2: 44/1863

 

Wed Comps

Shazam 1:  $2.012m

Ghostbusters;  $2m

Avatar 2:  $2.94m

Black Widow:  $1.75m

Shang-Chi:  $1.17m   (SC over indexed about 50% due to high % Asian pop - so closer to $1.75m)

Birds Of Prey:  $1.66m   (Rated R)

The Suicide Squad:   $2.34m  (Rated R)

 

Black Adam #s for Thur - 200/2638 - if Shazam 2 jumps 30/50/70% tomorrow -  $2.17m/$2.5m/$2.84m comps

 

30% boost means it will sell like 13 tickets across presales and walkups tomorrow. is that even possible ? Even 70% is not crazy. you are talking about 31 tickets :-)

[Eric is Quiet]

13 hours ago, Eric Batson said:

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	86	551	17406	3.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 63

 

Comp - T-2

0.613x of The Suicide Squad (2.52M)

0.210x of Shang-Chi (1.85M)

0.176x of Eternals (1.67M)

0.427x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (1.92M)

0.364x of Morbius (2.08M)

0.311x of Sonic 2 (1.94M)

0.372x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (2.23M)

0.157x of Jurassic World: Dominion (2.83M)

0.286x of Black Adam (2.17M)

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	107	673	20143	3.34%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 122

 

Comp - T-1

0.615x of The Suicide Squad (2.52M)

0.208x of Shang-Chi (1.83M)

0.184x of Eternals (1.75M)

0.420x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (1.89M)

0.364x of Morbius (2.08M)

0.278x of Sonic 2 (1.73M)

0.391x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (2.35M)

0.162x of Jurassic World: Dominion (2.91M)

0.291x of Black Adam (2.21M)

[screambaby]

Forgive me.. but that 100 percent chance of 70  million is what? Final worldwide total?

Edited March 16, 2023 by screambaby

[TalismanRing]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

30% boost means it will sell like 13 tickets across presales and walkups tomorrow. is that even possible ? Even 70% is not crazy. you are talking about 31 tickets 🙂

 

Well it's had like a month to sell 44.    Though I only do comps until first show which is 3pm for S2

 

Venom 2:  63%  (biggest walk ups but still not huge at this theater)

POB : 56%

Black Widow: 53%

Eternals : 45%

DS 2: 27% (of course harder to Jump when already so high)

Sonic: 27%

Jumanji 2:  26%

 

 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 3/14/2023 at 5:09 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FWIW, I'm still comfortably on the ~$30M OW train

 

I don't think it will slip into the mid-low $20M nor do I think it will exceed $35M

 

Ok, maybe not...Sub $30M is most likely happening 

 

SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS ALL FRIDAY SHOWINGS --- ORLANDO 

 

T-2 

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
147	1342	23618	5.7%

 

roughly 2 hours since review embargo lifted 

 

comps 

SCREAM VI T-2 - 19.3% sold

CREED III T-2 - 10.9% sold

65 T-2 - 7.7% sold

 

Disney Springs AMC is performing okay, Cinemark meh, and rural chains are performing poorly 

[Eric is Quiet]

32 minutes ago, screambaby said:

Forgive me.. but that 100 percent chance of 70  million is what? Final worldwide total?

100% chance of 70M for opening weekend. However, within the DC/MCU category on The Quorum, the lowest opener in my data was Black Adam with 67M. Morbius is in the "Known IP" section for some reason. And with Shazam tracking in the same 5.6 range as Eternals/Shang-Chi, that does mean, using that data alone, that it has a 100% chance of 70M because of those two movies...but there's only 10 movies in that pool altogether. It's kinda hard to predict anything when you only have 10 movies.

[Joyous Legion]

52 minutes ago, screambaby said:

Forgive me.. but that 100 percent chance of 70  million is what? Final worldwide total?

DOM ow 

[screambaby]

15 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

DOM ow 

Hope they aren't betting anything on that

[charlie Jatinder]

These regional comps are very low, though MTC 1 and MiniTC 1 seems better than that. Its weird how there is so much diff.

[screambaby]

40 minutes ago, Eric Batson said:

100% chance of 70M for opening weekend. However, within the DC/MCU category on The Quorum, the lowest opener in my data was Black Adam with 67M. Morbius is in the "Known IP" section for some reason. And with Shazam tracking in the same 5.6 range as Eternals/Shang-Chi, that does mean, using that data alone, that it has a 100% chance of 70M because of those two movies...but there's only 10 movies in that pool altogether. It's kinda hard to predict anything when you only have 10 movies.

I figured that but I was trying to figure out what their smoking....the first shaazam didn't even open to 70 million probsbly even if you adjusted it