The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[ThomasNicole]

12 minutes ago, Flip said:

Have they done this with any other of the remakes or is this not standard?

I remember it was very late for Dumbo, Aladdin, Maleficent 2 etc ... so the rotten ones 

 

About the same as Mulan and Cruella [both with 75% or so on RT] 

 

The outlier would be TLK, early embargo and bad reviews, one of the rare occasions where DIS was wrong about what they had

[WorkingonaName]

I don't understand why citric hated Aladdin so much,, one of the better remakes.

[Austin]

5 hours ago, Shawn said:

Also, I have to respectfully disagree that GOTG2 reception has much to do with the muted buzz here. I'm chalking it up far more to the fact that Infinity War and Endgame effectively served as Vol. 2.5 and wrapped up several key character arcs for the average casual viewer. Although to that point, so did GOTG2 (regarding Peter's parental throughlines).

 

Combined with a six-year gap between direct sequels and general regression of all-audience MCU hype without a clear direction post-Endgame, this is reminding me more of the fourth movie syndrome (think Pirates, Transformers, Shrek, etc.) than the huge trilogy-capper maybe some hoped for on a box office level.

 

And I say all of that as a huge Marvel fan, so I'm not hating on anything in the slightest. It just is what it is right now.

Shrek 4 is the 3rd Shrek and I will die on that hill. 

[SpiderByte]

42 minutes ago, YM! said:

No but they’re nowhere near as big as Marvel.

For films, I'll give you DND, but DC is still big. You're gonna have to sell me how the studio that turned a Taxi Driver knockoff into a billion dollar smash by slapping the Batman sheen on it isn't a big IP

[ringedmortality]

30 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I remember it was very late for Dumbo, Aladdin, Maleficent 2 etc ... so the rotten ones 

 

About the same as Mulan and Cruella [both with 75% or so on RT] 

 

The outlier would be TLK, early embargo and bad reviews, one of the rare occasions where DIS was wrong about what they had

 

Rob Marshall has so far been pretty consistent in the critical reception of his Disney movies. 71% for Into the Woods and 80% for Mary Poppins Returns. I think worst case scenario for this would be like low 60s.

[Flamengo81]

15 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

For films, I'll give you DND, but DC is still big. You're gonna have to sell me how the studio that turned a Taxi Driver knockoff into a billion dollar smash by slapping the Batman sheen on it isn't a big IP

I think he is right in the sense that DC is nowhere near as consistent as the MCU, but it definitely always had the potential to go as high as the MCU aside from all the Avengers stuff, especially Batman related movies.

[DisposedData]

33 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

I don't understand why citric hated Aladdin so much,, one of the better remakes.

Agreed. It was the only remake that seemed to have legitimate strong word of mouth, everyone seemed impressed. 

[misterpepp]

Was told Fool's Paradise tix are on sale May 4

[GOGODanca]

21 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

For films, I'll give you DND, but DC is still big. You're gonna have to sell me how the studio that turned a Taxi Driver knockoff into a billion dollar smash by slapping the Batman sheen on it isn't a big IP

because it had incredible word of mouth, had nothing to do with the brand, couldn't even open to 100m

 

i get that you feel the need to defend marvel 24/7 but you don't have to pretend like other franchises have the same expectations as them, if avatar 3 makes only 1.2b its a massive disappointment regardless of how that would be amazing for any other movie, same applies to marvel, trilogy finales shouldn't be dropping 20% on OW despite earlier previews and more frontloading in general no matter how you wanna slice it

[cooldude97]

43 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

I don't understand why citric hated Aladdin so much,, one of the better remakes.

because it still does everything worse than the original 

[Flamengo81]

25 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

because it had incredible word of mouth, had nothing to do with the brand, couldn't even open to 100m

 

 

Heavily disagree here. Of course the incredible word of mouth helped it a lot, but if you made the exact same movie that instead of being named "Joker" and having Gotham, Batman as a child appearance and all that Batman mythos stuff, it was named "Joaquin" and was taken place in Los Angeles it would not have done even half of that. Good luck opening a drama/thriller character study movie about a guy's psychology to 96M domestic and 155M worldwide.

 

 

[Flamengo81]

37 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

Agreed. It was the only remake that seemed to have legitimate strong word of mouth, everyone seemed impressed. 

Beauty and The Beast was just like that IMO.

[keysersoze123]

Quick Update

 

Guardians Friday 

MTC1 - 146071/1378257 2495973.03 7732 shows +18154

MTC2 - 112034/944117 1480594.05 6268 shows +21520 

 

MTC2 Fri was previously an overnight run 2 days go. This is a day time run today. I would say roughly day and half of data. MTC1 is 1 day of update. I dont see it catch Ant 3 Friday presales based on current pace. It is slightly faster but delta is way more than that. 

[GOGODanca]

10 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

Heavily disagree here. Of course the incredible word of mouth helped it a lot, but if you made the exact same movie that instead of being named "Joker" and having Gotham, Batman as a child appearance and all that Batman mythos stuff, it was named "Joaquin" and was taken place in Los Angeles it would not have done even half of that. Good luck opening a drama/thriller character study movie about a guy's psychology to 96M domestic and 155M worldwide.

 

 

you could say that about any IP but to say dc brand is why it made a billion when they can't even get their dceu stuff to break 400m since 2018 is laughable, 

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, GOGODanca said:

you could say that about any IP but to say dc brand is why it made a billion when they can't even get their dceu stuff to break 400m since 2018 is laughable, 

Bats did very well for a dark movie that it was. I think Gunn will find Superman Legacy lot easier to sell than a gang of misfits. But I feel some of the unknown SH movies that he has greenlit like Authority may not get made if movies continue to under perform. 

[Flamengo81]

7 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

you could say that about any IP but to say dc brand is why it made a billion when they can't even get their dceu stuff to break 400m since 2018 is laughable, 

It's not the DC cinematic brand, but the own characters brand which are at the end of the day DC brand. People don't saw Joker because they trusted DC brand in movies like people do (or did?) with the MCU, but because it was a very good story about a hugely popular and iconic character from DC's biggest franchise that is Batman. The brand is most definitely a factor here. The Batman also did very good despite being an unfriedly movie for GA with it's very somber and dark tone, slower pace, thriller aspects, bad reception of previous iteration and other factors.

[Flamengo81]

27 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Quick Update

 

Guardians Friday 

MTC1 - 146071/1378257 2495973.03 7732 shows +18154

MTC2 - 112034/944117 1480594.05 6268 shows +21520 

 

MTC2 Fri was previously an overnight run 2 days go. This is a day time run today. I would say roughly day and half of data. MTC1 is 1 day of update. I dont see it catch Ant 3 Friday presales based on current pace. It is slightly faster but delta is way more than that. 

Is it possible that releasing reviews earlier did not make that much difference at the end of the day and only switched the bump it would have in sales anyway closer to release a few days earlier? It was apparently having a consistent acceleration, but maybe it just won't have the final push it would if reviews were released latter.

[Spidey Freak]

1 hour ago, WorkingonaName said:

I don't understand why citric hated Aladdin so much,, one of the better remakes.

 

Well, it has a better rating than BatB and TLK so it's one of the better ones.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	182	26837	27707	870	3.14%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

31

 

T-17 Comp:

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	111.83		91	778		0/92	13323/14101	5.52%		16962	5.13%		9.11m
NTTD	154.80		71	562		0/136	20817/21379	2.63%		16800	5.18%		9.60m
JWD	39.30		48	2214		0/188	22929/25143	8.81%		33839	2.57%		7.07m
TG:M	25.69		223	3387		0/261	33007/36394	9.31%		11474	7.58%		5.08m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

F9 COMP NOTE:  The F9 comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     128/10115  [1.27% sold]
Matinee:    17/3515  [0.48% | 1.95% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Starting to pick up a little bit...

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	182	26804	27710	906	3.27%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

36

 

T-16 Comp:

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	109.55		49	827		0/91	13323/14150	5.84%		16962	5.34%		8.92m
NTTD	142.68		73	635		0/136	20744/21379	2.97%		16800	5.39%		8.85m
Bats	23.77		138	3812		0/280	30966/34778	10.96%		8986	10.08%		5.13m
TG:M	25.12		220	3607		0/259	32324/35931	10.04%		11474	7.90%		4.96m
JWD	38.95		112	2326		0/190	22988/25314	9.19%		33839	2.68%		7.01m
BA	114.97		59	788		0/146	21279/22067	3.57%		4494	20.16%		8.74m
Wick 4	93.50		93	969		0/88	12361/13330	7.27%		5448	16.63%		8.32m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

F9 COMP NOTE:  The F9 comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     134/10118  [1.32% sold]
Matinee:    20/3517  [0.57% | 2.21% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Just for Jat, went ahead and added a Wick 4 comp, R-rating difference be damned.

 

...

 

Also added a Black Adam comp because the idea of The Rock vs Vin Diesel amused me.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-24 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	154	21201	21991	790	3.59%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

59

 

%

Sold T-24

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

JWD

46.14

22

1712

0/171

22072/23784

7.20%

10966

7.20%

8.31m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        120/5779  [2.08% sold]
Matinee:         16/621  [2.58% | 2.03% of all tickets sold]
3D:            130/4326  [3.01% | 16.46% of all tickets sold]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 0.61217x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-24 [16.19m]   

 

=======

 

Removed the Sonic 2 and Aladdin comps for now as T-24 was their first day of sales. Was as well for TLK, but at least that's not an insanely stupid number.  Went ahead and added JWD (thanks for the suggestion Jat 👍) and was surprised at the strength of the comp. 

 

I'm even more surprised at the staying power TLM has shown since it's third day of sales.  It's basically been flat the last three days (59, 60, 59) which...  Well let me put it this way, I'm seriously thinking TLM has a good chance of clearing 10m in previews now.  Still very early in the pre-sale run, but I've been impressed with it so far.

 

And here's the really interesting bit (and perhaps a tiny bit scary).  It's sold relatively few tickets for the Early Access shows.  Locally at least.  Right now the EA shows (seven in total) account for only 71 of the total tickets sold [8.99% of all tickets sold].  And of those 71, nearly half are at Century Arden (32).

 

That tells me there isn't much of a fan rush to see this yet and that it has a lot of room to grow as we get closer to release.

 

Guess we'll find out soon enough.

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	157	21799	22648	849	3.75%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	657
Total Seats Sold Today	59

 

T-23 Comps:

	%		Sold T-23	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	48.02		56	1768		0/179	22879/24647	7.17%		10966	7.74%		8.64m
BA	140.80		53	603		0/146	21460/22063	2.73%		4494	18.89%		10.70m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

Regal:        133/5782  [2.30% sold]
Matinee:         19/621  [3.06% | 2.24% of all tickets sold]
3D:            135/4329  [3.12% | 15.90% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:       88/1740  [5.06% | 10.37% of all tickets sold]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.88366x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-23 [15.16m]    
TLM = 0.53933x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-23 [14.27m]