The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:30am - 12:20pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	345	32602	41801	9199	22.01%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Night	2
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	126
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	836

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Comps:

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW [12:00-12:55]	117.41		891	7835		0/258	24466/32301	24.26%		9196	100.03%		18.22m
ET [12:00-12:30]	173.11		642	5314		0/136	13154/18468	28.77%		6409	143.53%		18.59m
Bats [11:30-12:35]	87.79		939	10478		1/327	28376/38854	26.97%		11757	78.24%		18.96m
MoM [11:30-12:40]	47.27		1194	19461		0/409	27068/46529	41.83%		21117	43.56%		17.02m
TGM [11:30-12:30]	88.77		707	10363		2/345	32649/43012	24.09%		11474	80.17%		17.10m
JWD [12:00-12:50]	96.93		1071	9490		0/290	24248/33738	28.13%		10966	83.89%		17.45m
L&T [11:30-12:25]	61.71		1390	14906		0/313	24653/39559	37.68%		16962	54.23%		17.90m
BP2 [11:30-12:20]	62.38		1125	14747		2/375	28391/43138	34.19%		16800	54.76%		17.47m
AM3 [11:35-12:25]	97.95		738	9392		0/308	27981/37373	25.13%		10475	87.82%		17.14m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

BW & ET COMP NOTE:  The Black Widow comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.17594x to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post, while Eternals has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x purely to reflect the difference in ATP.

 

Regal:     2134/13745  [15.53% sold]
Matinee:    497/4148  [11.98% | 5.40% of all tickets sold]
3D:            1113/7118  [15.64% | 12.10% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Solid start of the day locally.  Outpacing against current comps of MoM, AM3 and BP2.  More or less on par with current comp of L&T.  Probably honing in on 18m to 18.5m.   Doing better than AM3 at the half day marker is a good sign for that, IMO.

Will it catch up to Ant 3. That has a 193 ticket lead. it sold 98 tickets more than that till your mid day update?

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 Drafthouse

 

T-1 Thursday(346 showings): 17212(+1843)/44331 ATP: $15.50

0.965x Ant-Man 3 T-1 (16.88M)

0.738x Black Panther WF T-1 (20.66M)

0.787x Thor L&T T-1 (22.81M)

0.616x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (22.17M)

0.954x Batman T-1 Thurs only (16.79M)

 

T-2 Friday(547 showings): 17894(+2353)/69389 ATP: $15.30

0.969x Ant-Man 3 T-2 (28.05M)

0.586x Black Panther WF T-2 (32.99M)

0.877x Thor L&T T-2 (35.58M)

0.615x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (33.63M)

0.819x Batman T-2 (28.66M)

 

T-3 Saturday(579 showings): 19699(+2547)/72661 ATP: $14.72

1.08x Ant-Man 3 T-3 (36.66M)

0.730x Black Panther WF T-3 (41.00M)

1.04x Thor L&T T-3 (43.61M)

0.650x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (37.60M)

0.857x Batman T-3 (37.09M)

 

T-4 Sunday(509 showings): 11538(+1517)/64156 ATP: $14.43

1.20x Ant-Man T-4 (30.82M)

0.709x Black Panther WF T-4 (29.03M)

0.997x Thor L&T T-4 (32.40M)

0.649x Doctor Strange MoM T-4 (25.23M)

0.953x Batman T-4 (32.52M)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 Drafthouse

 

T-0 Thursday(346 showings): 20314(+3102)/44331 ATP: $15.38

0.979x Ant-Man 3 T-0 (17.13M)

0.777x Black Panther WF T-0 (21.77M)

0.775x Thor L&T T-0 (22.47M)

0.637x Doctor Strange MoM T-0 (22.95M)

0.970x Batman T-0 Thurs only (17.07M)

 

T-1 Friday(547 showings): 20470(+2576)/69389 ATP: $15.24

0.970x Ant-Man 3 T-1 (28.05M)

0.594x Black Panther WF T-1 (33.41M)

0.823x Thor L&T T-1 (33.36M)

0.628x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (34.37M)

0.812x Batman T-1 (28.41M)

 

T-2 Saturday(579 showings): 22342(+2643)/72661 ATP: $14.68

1.09x Ant-Man 3 T-2 (37.07M)

0.986x Thor L&T T-2 (41.50M)

0.665x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (38.44M)

0.832x Batman T-2 (36.01M)

 

T-3 Sunday(509 showings): 13280(+1742)/64156 ATP: $14.41

1.21x Ant-Man 3 T-3 (31.16M)

0.983x Thor L&T T-3 (31.93M)

0.649x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (25.23M)

0.893x Batman T-3 (30.50M)

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1001

4344

23.04%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

795

3222

24.67%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
5149	640	35179	14.64%	14	230

 

AMCs sold	3198
Cinemarks sold	852
Regals sold	474
Harkins sold	625

 

0.902x Ant-Man 3 T-1 (15.78M)

0.697x Black Panther WF T-1 (19.51M)

0.569x Thor L&T T-1 (16.49M)

0.402x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (14.47M)

0.734x Batman T-1 (15.87M)

1.80x Eternals T-1 (17.10M)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1235

4344

28.43%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

932

3382

27.56%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
6819	1670	35957	18.96%	13	238

 

AMCs sold	3918
Cinemarks sold	1216
Regals sold	703
Harkins sold	982

 

0.949x Ant-Man 3 T-0 (16.60M)

0.733x Black Panther WF T-0 (20.53M)

0.557x Thor L&T T-0 (16.16M)

0.953x JW Dominion T-0 (17.16M)

0.444x Doctor Strange MoM T-0 (15.98M)

0.787x Batman T-0 (17.00M)

1.53x Eternals T-0 (14.55M)

 

Two Regal theaters closed here, so the comps are gonna be a little under what they should be. Those theaters were around 4% of sales, so I'm just gonna boost the comps by 4% for my prediction. Denver is probably gonna underperform in general too. So, accounting for that, I'm gonna go with 17.5M. Probably will be reported as 18M if it's around there tho.

[M37]

Had a free 15 mins, ran a few growth rate numbers, and I keep coming up with 300-310K Alpha final, just shy of AMWQ's 317K final mark. The marathon would probably be enough to make up that delta, and so we'd get the same preview value of $17.5M (unless Disney goes back to rounding to even million). But won't be surprised if it nudges up a bit higher [$17-$18.5M]

 

 

[ThomasNicole]

Hoping walkups are good enough for 18.5M or so 

 

If everything goes right, WOM will follow overseas and can push the multiplier to 120-125M OW 

 

That should be enough for 310-330M DOM. OS seems to be shaping up pretty good because of WOM, 400M seems doable.

 

This is in a better position now than it was a few days ago, which is nice.

Edited May 4, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[Shawn Robbins]

23 minutes ago, M37 said:

Had a free 15 mins, ran a few growth rate numbers, and I keep coming up with 300-310K Alpha final, just shy of AMWQ's 317K final mark. The marathon would probably be enough to make up that delta, and so we'd get the same preview value of $17.5M (unless Disney goes back to rounding to even million). But won't be surprised if it nudges up a bit higher [$17-$18.5M]

 

 

My gut says if the math is close enough to warrant it, they'll use the first decimal spot if it means getting over GOTG2 ($17M) and Quantumania ($17.5M) preview numbers for reporting purposes.

[Mojoguy]

Under Ant 3's 17.5m would cause mass panic.

 

But GOTG3 should be able to make it up over the weekend, Ant really had toxic WOM.

[GOGODanca]

Disney if  need be:

[grim22]

1 minute ago, Mojoguy said:

Under Ant 3's 17.5m would cause mass panic.

 

But GOTG3 should be able to make it up over the weekend, Ant really had toxic WOM.

I feel like Guardians 3 will have a Friday to weekend multiplier in the same ballpark that Ant man 3 did, but it will do it without a holiday Monday boosting the Sunday number. Bigger Saturday jump, bigger Sunday drop.

[keysersoze123]

Preview numbers we get are always rounded up or down. Mostly up I would say. Disney can keep it above if it wanted :-)

 

Anyway Guardians is at 254436(4.18m) at this point. Will need to hit 315K to hit 5.1m. Its pace is just under 7K over past 2 hours. Next 4 are the key. After that it just trickles. I am seeing around 290-300K finish for now. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/3/2023 at 1:30 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Little Mermaid

THURSDAY

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	1976	32751	6.0%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

52

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

ATP: $14.38

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY 

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	2001	32751	6.1%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

25

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

ATP: $14.38

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Will it catch up to Ant 3. That has a 193 ticket lead. it sold 98 tickets more than that till your mid day update?

 

It'll need a very strong finish.  FWIW, after I posted I ran some internal numbers and probably would now put the range at 17.5-18.  I'm just starting my compiling now and I'll have it finished about an hour fifteen, hour and a half.

 

(also think AM3 overperformed slightly in Sacto, FWIW)

Edited May 4, 2023 by Porthos
over not under, duh

[MovieMan89]

3 hours ago, GOGODanca said:

ant-man and gotg require the same viewing homework (IW, EG, and the first 2 of each) + GotG was a much bigger sub franchise than ant-man and its good whereas ant man stunk so walkups will favor the former

But did you NEED to see AM 1 or 2 to see 3? I’d say no. 100% yes to gotg1 and 2 to see 3 though. 
 

Much stronger WOM should carry it past AM3 Sat Sun either way though. 

Edited May 4, 2023 by MovieMan89

[GOGODanca]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

But did you NEED to see AM 1 or 2 to see 3? I’d say no. 100% yes to gotg1 and 2 to see 3 though. 
 

Much stronger WOM should carry it past AM3 Sat Sun either way though. 

yes you did need to see them cause otherwise you wouldn't understand any of the main characters or give a shit about them

[ZackM]

I should have an Alpha update in about an hour.  It will tell us a lot with regards to what we should expect from walk ups.

[Tinalera]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

not just Ant. I comped with all MCU movies from 2022. Some of them played way stronger at all markets. I am not sure this is playing that well even in Canada based on @Tinalera update. 

From what Im seeing as Ive been tracking, they some places they are playing close to Ant, but overall generally seems there seems to be a bit lower for GOTG .  But then Canada can be an unusual duck-but in this case seems to be following its US counterparts, been fairly consistent through the different regions.

Edited May 4, 2023 by Tinalera

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Inceptionzq said:

 

Two Regal theaters closed here, so the comps are gonna be a little under what they should be. Those theaters were around 4% of sales, so I'm just gonna boost the comps by 4% for my prediction. Denver is probably gonna underperform in general too. So, accounting for that, I'm gonna go with 17.5M. Probably will be reported as 18M if it's around there tho.

Wouldn't folks go to other theatres? Unless those theatres served areas within city not having another one nearby.

[Eric is Quiet]

19 hours ago, I Am Eric said:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	225	6598	40176	16.42%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 799

 

Comp - T-1

1.283x of Black Widow (16.94M)

2.037x of Shang-Chi (17.93M)

1.806x of Eternals (17.16M)

0.381x of Doctor Strange 2 (13.71M)

0.619x of Thor 4 (17.97M)

0.504x of Black Panther 2 (14.11M)

0.906x of Ant-Man 3 (15.86M)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	225	8395	40176	20.90%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,797

 

Comp

1.106x of Black Widow (14.59M)

1.767x of Shang-Chi (15.55M)

1.591x of Eternals (15.12M)

0.408x of Doctor Strange 2 (14.68M)

0.614x of Thor 4 (17.8M)

0.460x of Black Panther 2 (12.87M)

0.906x of Ant-Man 3 (15.86M)

 

I dunno guys, I'm still thinking sub-100 is possible here. Today was pretty weak.

[keysersoze123]

Thor was a huge under performer at Phily and even that comp does not take it 18m. I would rule it out for sure. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/3/2023 at 3:28 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION
 

FAST X

 

THURSDAY

 

T-15

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
141	1547	28103	5.5%

^{*Numbers taken as of 3:30pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

38

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

ATP - $13.60

GREATER ORLANDO REGION
 

FAST X

 

THURSDAY

 

T-14

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
141	1576	28103	5.6%

^{*Numbers taken as of 7:30pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

29

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

ATP - $13.60