The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric is Quiet]

46 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

But did you NEED to see AM 1 or 2 to see 3? I’d say no. 100% yes to gotg1 and 2 to see 3 though. 

Maybe you don't need to see the other Ant-Man movies, but does the average moviegoer who doesn't watch/only seen a couple Marvel movies know that? And would they really care enough to go if they aren't into Marvel all that much? Like this whole series is so insular and there are so many Marvel movies now that it can still give the perception that seeing any sequel will require tons of homework. So if I'm a boring casual person who only saw some of the Avengers movies, what hook is there for Ant-Man 3 that will make me want to care and how will I know that I don't need to do as much homework? Because I know I will still have to watch a few of these movies first.

 

Almost every new Marvel movie will have the same uphill battle regardless if the movie itself needs it or not and I don't think there's much for a GA/casual fan to get invested in to see things individually now.

[druv10]

GOTG TC 4450

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/254120830-Theater-counts-Guardians-of-the-Galaxy-Vol-3-blasts-into-4-450-theaters

[Inceptionzq]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wouldn't folks go to other theatres? Unless those theatres served areas within city not having another one nearby.

Yeah, but I don't track every theater in the area. Maybe I should've just adjusted up by like 2%, but it's a small percent either way

[ZackM]

In my head I can't shake the idea that Chris Pratt will help with walk ups in middle America.

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:30am - 12:20pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	345	32602	41801	9199	22.01%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Night	2
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	126
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	836

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Comps:

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW [12:00-12:55]	117.41		891	7835		0/258	24466/32301	24.26%		9196	100.03%		18.22m
ET [12:00-12:30]	173.11		642	5314		0/136	13154/18468	28.77%		6409	143.53%		18.59m
Bats [11:30-12:35]	87.79		939	10478		1/327	28376/38854	26.97%		11757	78.24%		18.96m
MoM [11:30-12:40]	47.27		1194	19461		0/409	27068/46529	41.83%		21117	43.56%		17.02m
TGM [11:30-12:30]	88.77		707	10363		2/345	32649/43012	24.09%		11474	80.17%		17.10m
JWD [12:00-12:50]	96.93		1071	9490		0/290	24248/33738	28.13%		10966	83.89%		17.45m
L&T [11:30-12:25]	61.71		1390	14906		0/313	24653/39559	37.68%		16962	54.23%		17.90m
BP2 [11:30-12:20]	62.38		1125	14747		2/375	28391/43138	34.19%		16800	54.76%		17.47m
AM3 [11:35-12:25]	97.95		738	9392		0/308	27981/37373	25.13%		10475	87.82%		17.14m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

BW & ET COMP NOTE:  The Black Widow comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.17594x to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post, while Eternals has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x purely to reflect the difference in ATP.

 

Regal:     2134/13745  [15.53% sold]
Matinee:    497/4148  [11.98% | 5.40% of all tickets sold]
3D:            1113/7118  [15.64% | 12.10% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Solid start of the day locally.  Outpacing against current comps of MoM, AM3 and BP2.  More or less on par with current comp of L&T.  Probably honing in on 18m to 18.5m.   Doing better than AM3 at the half day marker is a good sign for that, IMO.

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:45pm - 4:30pm]

NOTE:  All showtimes that started before 3:45pm were sampled at the start of that showing.

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	347	31169	41919	10750	25.64%

 

Total Showings Added Since Mid-Day	2
Total Seats Added Since Mid-Day	118
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	1551

 

T-0 (Final) Comps:

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW [4:20-5:20]	116.90		1361	9196		0/260	23235/32431	28.36%		9196	116.90%		18.15m
ET [4:50-5:20]	167.73		1095	6409		0/147	12843/19252	33.29%		6409	167.73%		18.01m
Bats [3:00-4:30]	91.43		1279	11757		1/328	27144/38901	30.22%		11757	91.43%		19.75m
MoM [3:30-4:35]	50.91		1656	21117		0/409	25412/46529	45.38%		21117	50.91%		18.33m
TGM [3:30-4:35]	93.69		1111	11474		2/345	31538/43012	26.68%		11474	93.69%		18.04m
JWD [3:45-4:35]	98.03		1476	10966		0/290	22873/33839	32.41%		10966	98.03%		17.65m
L&T [3:45-4:35]	63.38		2056	16962		0/320	23111/40073	42.33%		16962	63.38%		18.38m
BP2 [3:45-4:35]	63.99		2053	16800		2/376	26426/43216	38.87%		16800	63.99%		17.92m
AM3 [3:45-4:35]	102.63		1083	10475		0/307	26899/37374	28.03%		10475	102.63%		17.96m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

BW & ET COMP NOTE:  The Black Widow comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.17594x to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post, while Eternals has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x purely to reflect the difference in ATP.

 

Regal:     2636/13745  [19.18% sold]
Matinee:    694/4148  [16.73% | 6.46% of all tickets sold]
3D:            1332/7118  [18.71% | 12.39% of all tickets sold]

 

==============

 

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Will it catch up to Ant 3. That has a 193 ticket lead. it sold 98 tickets more than that till your mid day update?

 

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

It'll need a very strong finish.  FWIW, after I posted I ran some internal numbers and probably would now put the range at 17.5-18.  I'm just starting my compiling now and I'll have it finished about an hour fifteen, hour and a half.

 

(also think AM3 overperformed slightly in Sacto, FWIW)

 

It not only got that very strong finish, it blew the hell past AM3 on the rest of the half day, which bodes well for its weekend internal multi, IMO.  Also had strong sales up and down the region and decent sales for later in the evening (again boding well for internal multi).

 

Either way, the Marvel comps point to 17.9 to 18.4m, and who the hell am I to disagree?  Since Disney likes to round, let's go with 18m +/- .5m.

 

Edited May 4, 2023 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

Excellent finish at Sacramento which has rarely missed on any MCU movie. 

[ZackM]

After the slow presales 18m will be so boring.

[Porthos]

FWIW, I'm not surprised at all about GOTG3 doing better than AM3 today on the final report.  When I was looking at my mid-day numbers, I noticed this:

 

GOTG3 at Mid-Day had done:

70% of the sales MoM did on its mid-day.

74% of the sales BP2 did on its mid-day.

113% of the sales AM3 did on its mid-day.

 

Projected outward that would have set goalposts of:

MoM: 1160 projected tickets sold

BP2:  1518 projected tickets sold

AM3: 1225 projected tickets sold

 

Basically it was already looking to catch up with AM3 if it kept selling at the pace it had set against it.  But what it needed to do was keep the pace it set against BP2, which had a fantastic finish locally.  Unsurprisingly, perhaps, that's also the film that had the best WOM of the three (I'm intentionally omitting L&T due to possible 4th of July shenanigans).

 

Ended up selling 1551 tickets which is close enough to the BP2 benchmark, IMO.  What I was uncertain about was whether or not it would keep its pace or would it collapse like AM3 did.

 

 

 

[Porthos]

One other note. If this does come in at 17.5 to 18m, while it is very tempting to look at 17.5m-18m for GOTG3 as the same as an 17.5m for AM3, IMO there is something *****VERY DIFFERENT***** about the two.

 

AM3 started very strong, slowed down, and, then basically collapsed.  That was a harbinger for its DOM run, really.

GOTG3, on the other hand, started out relatively slow and has accelerated as we get to the OW.

 

In short, one was trending down and one is trending up.

 

So while it is tempting to say, "they're the same", imo the trajectories of the two films couldn't be more different.  And that matters when it comes to projecting box office.

 

NB:  Snapshot in time, if it comes in at 17m disregard, past performance is not guarantee of future, yadda yadda yadda

[vafrow]

13 hours ago, vafrow said:

At my local theatre (Milton, Ontario, Canada), this morning started with 187 tickets sold for GOTG3. I don't have a lot of comparables, but, Mario had 320 tickets, so it translates to $18.5M.

 

Mario ended the night with 558 tickets sold. GOTG3 would need 326 to match the walk up rate. I'm guessing it'll struggle. The Toronto Maple Leafs have a second round playoff game tonight, which likely grabs a lot of people's attention. The late show is actually pretty busy tonight, so people may have already planned to watch after the game.

 

I'll check in later with final sales tonight to measure the walk ups.

 

The early shows are just closing, so, update on walkups.

 

GOTG3 walk ups have been disappointing. I was hoping to see a 75% increase to keep pace with Mario. With the caveat that the late show could still generate some business, these are my comparables to final sales for opening night.

 

Mario 0.442x ($14.0M)

John Wick 4 1.976X ($17.6)

D&D 7.7X ($43.2)

 

On another note, Love Again is doing surprising well against my low expectations. It's sold 21 tickets, much better than a lot of other smaller releases like Margaret (10 tickets), Pope's Exorcist (10 tickets), Renfield (6 tickets). It's doing not that far off from Air (35 tickets). Our area has a big South Asian population, so maybe some Priyanka Chopra fans came out. Or maybe there's an appetite for a date movie.

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

One other note. If this does come in at 17.5 to 18m, while it is very tempting to look at 17.5m-18m for GOTG3 as the same as an 17.5m for AM3, IMO there is something *****VERY DIFFERENT***** about the two.

 

AM3 started very strong, slowed down, and, then basically collapsed.  That was a harbinger for its DOM run, really.

GOTG3, on the other hand, started out relatively slow and has accelerated as we get to the OW.

 

In short, one was trending down and one is trending up.

 

So while it is tempting to say, "they're the same", imo the trajectories of the two films couldn't be more different.  And that matters when it comes to projecting box office.

 

NB:  Snapshot in time, if it comes in at 17m disregard, past performance is not guarantee of future, yadda yadda yadda

That is obvious. no one thinks its going to stop at low 200s like Ant 3 did. This is just about OW which also will be higher. I think 120m OW should be sufficient for 300m domestic. 

[ZackM]

1 hour ago, ZackM said:

I should have an Alpha update in about an hour.  It will tell us a lot with regards to what we should expect from walk ups.

 

As always, green cells are final, everything else is in progress.

 

Anyways, it's sitting at 272K.

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 - Eastern Time Zone					Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 - Central Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	BP2	AM3		Showtimes	Sales	BP2	AM3
3:00-3:59	17,540	33,690	16,629		3:00-3:59	9,608	13,536	8,345
4:00-4:59	9,251	16,833	11,784		4:00-4:59	3,711	6,854	6,039
5:00-5:59	7,275	14,261	7,290		5:00-5:59	3,989	6,094	3,221
6:00-6:59	24,744	31,298	28,374		6:00-6:59	14,357	18,484	15,595
7:00-7:59	28,732	47,184	27,500		7:00-7:59	14,238	26,381	14,302
8:00-8:59	12,154	30,905	15,413		8:00-8:59	5,860	14,366	7,331
9:00-9:59	7,512	20,066	22,546		9:00-9:59	2,678	7,645	10,306
10:00-10:59	12,554	25,086	13,713		10:00-10:59	5,873	11,743	5,980
11:00-11:59	3,845	16,575	1,893		11:00-11:59	959	5,981	486
12:00+	301	3,595	1,113		12:00+	101	440	302
Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 - Mountain Time Zone					Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	BP2	AM3		Showtimes	Sales	BP2	AM3
3:00-3:59	2,969	3,545	2,479		3:00-3:59	11,242	14,446	8,903
4:00-4:59	1,525	1,320	1,442		4:00-4:59	5,617	7,125	7,425
5:00-5:59	1,282	1,473	1,041		5:00-5:59	4,038	6,496	3,527
6:00-6:59	3,605	4,334	4,176		6:00-6:59	11,558	12,826	13,551
7:00-7:59	4,047	5,712	3,888		7:00-7:59	13,683	21,721	14,392
8:00-8:59	1,826	2,843	1,864		8:00-8:59	7,347	15,741	7,887
9:00-9:59	681	1,806	2,736		9:00-9:59	4,304	10,547	11,946
10:00-10:59	1,331	2,818	1,250		10:00-10:59	9,062	11,707	8,550
11:00-11:59	225	870	177		11:00-11:59	2,231	8,739	2,125
12:00+	35	164	62		12:00+	541	2,458	1,302

Edited May 5, 2023 by ZackM

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

As always, green cells are final, everything else is in progress.

 

Anyways, it's sitting at 272K.

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 - Eastern Time Zone					Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 - Central Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	BP2	AM3		Showtimes	Sales	BP2	AM3
3:00-3:59	17,540	33,690	16,629		3:00-3:59	9,608	13,536	8,345
4:00-4:59	9,251	16,833	11,784		4:00-4:59	3,711	6,854	6,039
5:00-5:59	7,275	14,261	7,290		5:00-5:59	3,989	6,094	3,221
6:00-6:59	24,744	31,298	28,374		6:00-6:59	14,357	18,484	15,595
7:00-7:59	28,732	47,184	27,500		7:00-7:59	14,238	26,381	14,302
8:00-8:59	12,154	30,905	15,413		8:00-8:59	5,860	14,366	7,331
9:00-9:59	7,512	20,066	22,546		9:00-9:59	2,678	7,645	10,306
10:00-10:59	12,554	25,086	13,713		10:00-10:59	5,873	11,743	5,980
11:00-11:59	3,845	16,575	1,893		11:00-11:59	959	5,981	486
12:00+	301	3,595	1,113		12:00+	101	440	302
Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 - Mountain Time Zone					Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	BP2	AM3		Showtimes	Sales	BP2	AM3
3:00-3:59	2,969	3,545	2,479		3:00-3:59	11,242	14,446	8,903
4:00-4:59	1,525	1,320	1,442		4:00-4:59	5,617	7,125	7,425
5:00-5:59	1,282	1,473	1,041		5:00-5:59	4,038	6,496	3,527
6:00-6:59	3,605	4,334	4,176		6:00-6:59	11,558	12,826	13,551
7:00-7:59	4,047	5,712	3,888		7:00-7:59	13,683	21,721	14,392
8:00-8:59	1,826	2,843	1,864		8:00-8:59	7,347	15,741	7,887
9:00-9:59	681	1,806	2,736		9:00-9:59	4,304	10,547	11,946
10:00-10:59	1,331	2,818	1,250		10:00-10:59	9,062	11,707	8,550
11:00-11:59	225	870	177		11:00-11:59	2,231	8,739	2,125
12:00+	35	164	62		12:00+	541	2,458	1,302

where do you see it finish? its 820PM EST. 

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, I Am Eric said:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	225	8395	40176	20.90%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,797

 

Comp

1.106x of Black Widow (14.59M)

1.767x of Shang-Chi (15.55M)

1.591x of Eternals (15.12M)

0.408x of Doctor Strange 2 (14.68M)

0.614x of Thor 4 (17.8M)

0.460x of Black Panther 2 (12.87M)

0.906x of Ant-Man 3 (15.86M)

 

I dunno guys, I'm still thinking sub-100 is possible here. Today was pretty weak.

 

I haven't budged from my $98M from what, 3 weeks ago now?  Although that is a rough final Philly day...

[ZackM]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

where do you see it finish? its 820PM EST. 

Definitely below Ant-Man 3, I’d think.  I’ll put a number on it after the next update.

[keysersoze123]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

 

I haven't budged from my $98M from what, 3 weeks ago now?  Although that is a rough final Philly day...

Nah. No way it goes that low now. That could have happened 2 days ago after tuesday number at few places, since then its definitely opening above Ant 3( 3 day) and I feel come close to 4 day considering how awful the weekend run of Ant 3 was. 

 

As I said phily has underperformed for MCU previously like Thor did. So its not as representative as say Sacramento is. 

[keysersoze123]

Just now, ZackM said:

Definitely below Ant-Man 3, I’d think.  I’ll put a number on it after the next update.

I agree as well. I am seeing 290-300 range. but with late strong walkups it could go to 305 and around 4.95m finish. MTC2 might however hit Ant 3 levels. 

 

That said previews could still go higher than Ant 3 as it has 350-400K from the imax marathon. 

 

@Porthos how many imax shows in your final total. I am not expecting that many as you track MTC2 and few smaller chains.  

[DisposedData]

18 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

As always, green cells are final, everything else is in progress.

 

Anyways, it's sitting at 272K.

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 - Eastern Time Zone					Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 - Central Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	BP2	AM3		Showtimes	Sales	BP2	AM3
3:00-3:59	17,540	33,690	16,629		3:00-3:59	9,608	13,536	8,345
4:00-4:59	9,251	16,833	11,784		4:00-4:59	3,711	6,854	6,039
5:00-5:59	7,275	14,261	7,290		5:00-5:59	3,989	6,094	3,221
6:00-6:59	24,744	31,298	28,374		6:00-6:59	14,357	18,484	15,595
7:00-7:59	28,732	47,184	27,500		7:00-7:59	14,238	26,381	14,302
8:00-8:59	12,154	30,905	15,413		8:00-8:59	5,860	14,366	7,331
9:00-9:59	7,512	20,066	22,546		9:00-9:59	2,678	7,645	10,306
10:00-10:59	12,554	25,086	13,713		10:00-10:59	5,873	11,743	5,980
11:00-11:59	3,845	16,575	1,893		11:00-11:59	959	5,981	486
12:00+	301	3,595	1,113		12:00+	101	440	302
Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 - Mountain Time Zone					Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	BP2	AM3		Showtimes	Sales	BP2	AM3
3:00-3:59	2,969	3,545	2,479		3:00-3:59	11,242	14,446	8,903
4:00-4:59	1,525	1,320	1,442		4:00-4:59	5,617	7,125	7,425
5:00-5:59	1,282	1,473	1,041		5:00-5:59	4,038	6,496	3,527
6:00-6:59	3,605	4,334	4,176		6:00-6:59	11,558	12,826	13,551
7:00-7:59	4,047	5,712	3,888		7:00-7:59	13,683	21,721	14,392
8:00-8:59	1,826	2,843	1,864		8:00-8:59	7,347	15,741	7,887
9:00-9:59	681	1,806	2,736		9:00-9:59	4,304	10,547	11,946
10:00-10:59	1,331	2,818	1,250		10:00-10:59	9,062	11,707	8,550
11:00-11:59	225	870	177		11:00-11:59	2,231	8,739	2,125
12:00+	35	164	62		12:00+	541	2,458	1,302

Am I reading this wrong? This seems bad.

[M37]

That the Alpha T-0 update was weak despite the strong late growth overall suggests it’s less of an East Coast film (like in Philly), and so will finish strong in later time zones (like Sacto). [see previously TGM]

Still on 300-310K (306K was my pinpoint extrapolation fwiw)

Edited May 5, 2023 by M37

[TwoMisfits]

One of two locals has a presale set for Spiderverse - if it doesn't change, they are staying conservative in starting presales, only giving it 2 screens (out of 12) and 9 showings, or about 25% less than Little Mermaid's starting set of 3 screens/12 showings...this is not a Mario set, or a blockbuster/MCU super set...

 

We'll see if the 2nd follows suit...