No Way Home Weekdays/Matrix & Sing Thread (12/20-23) | 37.1M Monday/32M Tues | King's Man 800K Previews

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It still could? Given how fluke-y the first movie's performance seemed to be in non-pandemic times, an opening day within close range of the previous one seems like a good sign of audience retention. Gotta wait until next week to get an idea of where it's headed.

Don’t forget Jumanji opened with $7m on a Wednesday and did like $70m six day.

[Torontofan]

Seems spiderman got hit Tuesday by restrictions in canada and seems to stabilize.

[AJG]

Looks like Disney just dropped Encanto early onto Disney+ in some regions. Not the UK unfortunately.

[Eric is Quiet]

53 minutes ago, Eric Smith said:

I've already got like a 12-paragraph-long rant planned to complain about the state of moviegoing and how bleak AF things will be 10 years from now. Don't know if I'm going to use it now though. Probably if Sing 2 really stinks by the end of the holiday.

 

Ehh screw it. Everything is terrible, I like to write, and I've got time to kill before I head off on my errands.

 

Here's how the next 10 years will go down. Not all of this will become true, but this seems like a good roadmap of how things will go down:

 

- Grosses will be depressed. 350 is the new 500, 250 is the new 400, etc. There will be one or two NWH/Avatar 2-esque juggernauts that will pop up into the 400-700 range, but they won’t be anywhere near as common as they were back in 2015-19. We'll probably be in a Cold War with China too, which means more movies will be blocked there and hurt grosses even more.

 

-Barring any potential MCU collapse (Not impossible tbh. Sorry, I’m still unconvinced these Disney+ shows are not oversaturating the brand), the biggest movies will likely continue to be from Disney. I know some will be annoyed by that, but you know it to be true. The others will put out their usual hitters, but they won’t be the big sellers.

 

- There’s going to be a huge push towards PLFs. The people that are going are almost exclusively going towards the biggest, loudest screen possible. The giant multiplexes will probably get two or three IMAXes, all of which will play separate movies or just one depending on the demand. There will also be two Dolbys/RPXs/4DXs in one theater. All of this will only cause ticket price increases, the one thing nobody wants, as well as limiting auditorium space for non-tentpoles.

 

- The other big downside is that not all theaters have the funds or infrastructure to get these kinds of premium screens. So smaller 6-screen theaters or even 12-screeners, especially ones in suburban or rural areas, will probably close down.

 

- All told, the theatrical experience will be way more expensive and way more limiting in options and locations. So the costs and travel to get there will make a trip to the movies more like...a trip to a theme park. Scorsese was right all along and nobody cared to listen.

 

- With the Paramount Decrees gone, some of the studios will own certain chains. AMC’s getting helped by some Reddit meme stocks and crypto bros, but that will only get you so far in life. Movies owned by said studio will get greater precedent, promotion, and auditorium space, while stuff like AMC A-List and Regal Unlimited will probably be tie-ins to other services. Get AMC A-List and get one year of Disney+ for free and/or an annual pass to Disneyland.

 

- For theater-exclusive films, the 45-day window will stay in tact. Maybe 30 days if the studios really want to push at-home viewing. While legs are fine with this window right now, it could become a problem once this stuff becomes more and more normalized. Why pay $12 to watch a movie one time when it’ll be available at home in a couple weeks?

 

- Day-and-date releases will still be a thing, though specifically for comedies, indies, awards hopefuls, and kids movies. Sing 2 still has a chance to hold up well and make great numbers, and I'm sure Lightyear and Spider-Verse will do well, but I feel a lot of kids conditioned themselves to prefer watching stuff home, plus parents loved saving money for their kids' entertainment this pandemic. A $20 rental or HBO Max subscription for home viewing is simply more enticing. For the other genres, it’s not ideal for traditionalists like us. But it is good for studios like Searchlight or Focus and at least we’re getting these movies made somehow. Better than nothing.

 

- Maybe this time, we’ll actually have VOD sale numbers to help paint a clearer picture. It’ll be annoying to determine how much a movie truly made theatrically, but at least things are a bit rosier in terms of press coverage for those films and somebody could find a way to track pre-orders or whatever. Again, better than nothing.

 

- Some movies will probably get released as NFTs. Tarantino's already into it and even though this crypto bullshit is destroying the world, garbage capitalism, the thing that will kill us faster than the virus will, always wins in the end.

 

- Premier Access will come back, but in a slightly different state. It won’t be day-and-date, though perhaps it will happen to some of their animated movies or stuff like Jungle Cruise. After the movie plays in theaters for 30 days, you can pay $20-30 to get it on D+ early. HBO Max and Paramount+ and the like will do a similar venture for their movies.

 

- There’s gonna be a bigger crackdown on piracy to account for all these changes. I don’t know how it’ll be done, but the studios will pressure the government to take down pirates and torrent sites. Like I said, garbage capitalism always wins. Expect this to happen to other major markets too. It may sound like a good thing from a “law-abiding citizen” standpoint, but it’s not ideal. There’s still plenty of movies and TV shows that have physical media long out of print, or are just inaccessible altogether unless through piracy. Media will get hurt by this.

 

- One or two mergers or acquisitions will happen in order to stay competitive against the Disney and Netflix behemoths. Maybe Netflix or Apple buys ViacomCBS, maybe Warner and Universal merges together, maybe Sony sells off their entertainment assets, maybe A24 and Neon go under some giant parent company, maybe some Chinese company will take over and buy a studio. At the very least, something will happen and will probably lead to some services like Paramount+ or Peacock getting absorbed into bigger streamers. And honestly, that would be for the best.

 

- With the way global warming is going, we probably can't even leave our house because it's too hot. No point going to the movies if you’re going to get a heat stroke by the time you get to your car or get drenched by the rising sea levels.

 

- All told, this will only lead to the box office being considered less important to the studios and overall more of a vinyl-style niche towards film buffs like us. At the very least, we still have theaters, and less casuals will probably make the experience better.

 

- I don’t know how all this will impact budgets or actor royalties/backend deals. Maybe movies will be cheaper to compensate for the decreased theatrical revenue. Maybe it’ll stay the same since streaming services cut out the middleman of exhibitors. Maybe these movies are just produced at a loss forever now. This is the real tough nut to crack, but I’m sure something will be figured out. Again, garbage capitalism always wins.

 

I don’t think everything listed here will happen, but I don’t have much faith in the box office or the current Hollywood system, at least what we were used to pre-2020, and I think it’ll suck for traditionalists like us.

 

inb4 I get "Hahaed"/yelled at for daring to say streaming won by the usual suspects, as if everything will be just fine in a year.

[YM!]

@charlie Jatinder is the 8.1M for Sing 2 excluding the previews?

[AJG]

41 minutes ago, AdrianL said:

If Matrix wasn't on Max there could be a case more people would check it out throughout the holiday but now it's just gonna flounder. It should've moved to January and opened MLK weekend. 

Absolutely. Due to the streaming aspect the speed of the bad WOM spreading has been obscene. Reminds me of WW84 last Christmas.

Edited December 23, 2021 by AJG

[Momori]

58 minutes ago, john2000 said:

 

 

[Mango]

Tarantino is into movies as NFTs now? Isn't this the same guy that said movie going experience was ruined by digital projection? Weird route to take after that.

Edited December 23, 2021 by Mango

[WayneBU]

Regarding SING2

 

Sing 2 remains incredibly fluid given the target family audience and expected Christmas boost, as well as the lack of clarity regarding whether or not the film’s $1.6 million Early Access grosses from last month will be included as part of a single day or spread out across each day in its five-day opening.

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-spider-man-no-way-home-aims-for-possible-100m-2nd-frame-as-sing-2-tracks-to-upset-the-matrix-resurrections-for-top-christmas-debut/

Edited December 23, 2021 by WayneBU

[Eric is Quiet]

Just now, Mango said:

Tarantino is into NFTs now? Isn't this the same guy that said movie going experience was ruined by digital projection? Weird route to take after that.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/tarantino-miramax-pulp-fiction-nft-1235052378/

 

Says here he's putting up his Pulp Fiction script for sale as an NFT. And honestly, it makes sense to me. He's basically a douchey dudebro in real life, so he would probably be all over this crypto shit.

[Ledmonkey96]

6 minutes ago, WayneBU said:

Regarding SING2

 

Sing 2 remains incredibly fluid given the target family audience and expected Christmas boost, as well as the lack of clarity regarding whether or not the film’s $1.6 million Early Access grosses from last month will be included as part of a single day or spread out across each day in its five-day opening.

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-spider-man-no-way-home-aims-for-possible-100m-2nd-frame-as-sing-2-tracks-to-upset-the-matrix-resurrections-for-top-christmas-debut/

Sing 2 is what 7.8mil today? So anywhere from 6.2 to 7.5mil actual depending on how they split up that 1.6

[Cmasterclay]

I would be more willing to accept our new streaming overloads if we had a standardized and immediate way of tracking streaming numbers like we do with box office. Samba is good but they are often delayed and paywalled. But like with The Suicide Squad nobody believed that press release they did opening weekend and we all called it damage control - but later reporting indicates it was actually true and WAS a major hit on Max, which would have changed the whole narrative with that movie. These numbers need to be reported from a third-party source on opening weekend, not a month later after Netflix has already told us that every single person in America watched Red Notice.

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Sing 2 is what 7.8mil today? So anywhere from 6.2 to 7.5mil actual depending on how they split up that 1.6

8.1M

[Eric is Quiet]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I would be more willing to accept our new streaming overloads if we had a standardized and immediate way of tracking streaming numbers like we do with box office. Samba is good but they are often delayed and paywalled. But like with The Suicide Squad nobody believed that press release they did opening weekend and we all called it damage control - but later reporting indicates it was actually true and WAS a major hit on Max, which would have changed the whole narrative with that movie. These numbers need to be reported from a third-party source on opening weekend, not a month later after Netflix has already told us that every single person in America watched Red Notice.

To be fair Netflix is now putting out top 10 lists showing how many hours are viewed each week, and from country to country too: https://top10.netflix.com

 

I don’t know if the other streamers will do something like this right now, but it wouldn’t surprise me, since I’m sure producers want transparency and affirmation if their new Disney+ show or Amazon movie is doing well. I also think Nielsen might be strong armed to get streaming data out later because producers want this kind of transparency.

[WayneBU]

4 minutes ago, YourMother said:

8.1M

Maybe 7.8 without previews and they're rolling in 300K daily for the 5-days since the previews also occured over the 5-day thanksgiving weekend

[ThomasNicole]

54 minutes ago, AJG said:

Looks like Disney just dropped Encanto early onto Disney+ in some regions. Not the UK unfortunately.

Yep, there's already copies in 4K available for download

[Torontofan]

I dont think Streaming large big budget films on the same day as release is not gonna be profitable for many films unless they have a must see attribute to them.

 

A lot of people are gonna just watch the movies for free on android boxes and online streaming illegally.

 

Edited December 23, 2021 by Torontofan

[ThomasNicole]

Sad for Matrix terrible numbers but honestly there's so many things against this movie that it's impossible to be surprised.

 

Marketing for this was a mess, started out very well than nothing for 3 months and then days before the movie a flood of material, but it's too late.

 

Then of course we have NWH massive box office overshadowing everything.

 

NWH monopoly let Matrix pretty much without premium theaters like IMAX.

 

Despite the good reviews overall, audiences are hating it.

 

And of course, the 4K link to download was available 10 minutes after the release.

[lorddemaxus]

After having seen the film, Matrix boxoffice is whatever, who cares at this point. Just happy something this idiosyncratic exists.

[Torontofan]

I think Spiderman for sure will increase today, seems busier today at local theaters (even though we just had a record case count oop)