Weekday Thread ( April 11 - 14) | Father Stu 550K Previews

[Eric Duncan]

20 hours ago, narniadis said:

As with all things box office, after 20 years there isn't anything that always constant except change. 

And Mickey's Law. As confirmed today, Mickey's Law will always be around.

[efialtes76]

$36M for Sonic 2?

I doubt it.

Even with a 25% jump on Thursday($4.6M) and 150% on Friday($11.5M) it wouldn't do more than $33.5M-$34M.

Edited April 14, 2022 by efialtes76

[narniadis]

2 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I mean Wednesday was more or less what I expected. It depends on how it jumps today and tomorrow 

I had hoped / expected closer to the 20% mark. Other films holding better gave me additional hope but the back to back weaker Tuesday (for a family film) and a rough (imo) Wednesday makes me question the weekend. But its hard to see how holidays will play out on this side of the pandemic. Also, makes me curious if this might also be impacted some by the inflation pressures on families in the US. 

 

As always, gonna be curious to see how it plays out. Would prefer a happy surprise than unmet expectations. 

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, narniadis said:

I had hoped / expected closer to the 20% mark. Other films holding better gave me additional hope but the back to back weaker Tuesday (for a family film) and a rough (imo) Wednesday makes me question the weekend. But its hard to see how holidays will play out on this side of the pandemic. Also, makes me curious if this might also be impacted some by the inflation pressures on families in the US. 

 

As always, gonna be curious to see how it plays out. Would prefer a happy surprise than unmet expectations. 

I’m fully expecting 25m this weekend, as Sonic lost PLFs and had fans and should hurt due to Beasts earlier preview start so today should be flat or best case scenario slight increase. The muted Tuesday jump was more of a problem than the in line Wednesday drop for family films. 200m is dead though but mid 100s is very likely. Still disappointed with the results.

Edited April 14, 2022 by YourMother

[WorkingonaName]

With a good Easter bump Morbius should be good for passing a billion this Sunday. 

[efialtes76]

Sonic 2-$3.66M

[BruiseCruise]

The Lost City: $740,463 (-23%YD/-39% YD)

[CJohn]

Sad with a potential 60% drop coming for Sonic. It really is playing like a MCU movie.

[DAJK]

Why is everyone freaking out over Sonic all of a sudden? It's a kids movie, it's playing like a kids movie. Of course weekdays won't be super strong. 

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Why is everyone freaking out over Sonic all of a sudden? It's a kids movie, it's playing like a kids movie. Of course weekdays won't be super strong. 

It’s not that being the problem, the problem is the weekdays aren’t strong enough if it plays like a family film for 30m+, especially with Beasts having an early start and taking away screens.

[EmpireCity]

6 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Why is everyone freaking out over Sonic all of a sudden? It's a kids movie, it's playing like a kids movie. Of course weekdays won't be super strong. 

 

No shit.  Exactly.  

[EmpireCity]

Just now, YourMother said:

It’s not that being the problem, the problem is the weekdays aren’t strong enough if it plays like a family film for 30m+, especially with Beasts having an early start and taking away screens.

 

There are plenty of screens for Sonic 2.  It isn't like FB is coming in and nothing is leaving.  Morbius is losing screens and will be buried.  Ambulance reduced.  The Batman run out.  Uncharted and Spider-Man done.  

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

There are plenty of screens for Sonic 2.  It isn't like FB is coming in and nothing is leaving.  Morbius is losing screens and will be buried.  Ambulance reduced.  The Batman run out.  Uncharted and Spider-Man done.  

I meant to type PLF screens, that’s on me. I still am unsure on how much of a jump it should have today but considering it’s playing like a family film, maybe today will be surprise.

[Krissykins]

16 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

There are plenty of screens for Sonic 2.  It isn't like FB is coming in and nothing is leaving.  Morbius is losing screens and will be buried.  Ambulance reduced.  The Batman run out.  Uncharted and Spider-Man done.  

I remember for about a week or so in the tracking thread it was looking like we shouldn’t bet against Morbius doing $60m+ OW. It still hasn’t passed $60m. 
 

What a disaster it turned out to be. 

[narniadis]

23 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

There are plenty of screens for Sonic 2.  It isn't like FB is coming in and nothing is leaving.  Morbius is losing screens and will be buried.  Ambulance reduced.  The Batman run out.  Uncharted and Spider-Man done.  

Its not the screen counts - its how the Easter weekend typically plays out. Barring a totally different form of behavior in this new era, Sonic falls on Saturday or at best is flat with Friday. The way it has behaved so far isnt encouraging for the folks who are assuming it will make mid 30s for the weekend as if its going to go up 50% on Saturday. 

 

I will happily eat crow if it over performs relative to the Tuesday/Wednesday numbers... my conservative side of numbers can be a tad strong lol. 

Edited April 14, 2022 by narniadis

[YM!]

15 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Its not the screen counts - its how the Easter weekend typically plays out. Barring a totally different form of behavior in this new era, Sonic falls on Saturday or at best is flat with Friday. The way it has behaved so far isnt encouraging for the folks who are assuming it will make mid 30s for the weekend as if its going to go up 50% on Saturday. 

 

I will happily eat crow if it over performs relative to the Tuesday/Wednesday numbers... my conservative side of numbers can be a tad strong lol. 

Yeah I want Sonic to at least be in the $4.65m+ range today to feel confident in $30m second weekend given how Rio 2 and a bunch of other family April stuff has done.

[Tokugennumataka]

The sonic drop is definitely concerning imo. Sifting through few animated pics of last decade, 

HTTYD - +15.6/+110.4

Rio - +14.8/+156.1

The Croods - +20.4/+110.4

Rio 2 - +18.6/+158.1

Home - +32.4/+150.4

Zootopia - +25.4/+112.6

The Boss Baby - +13.6/+112.8

The common factor here is that nearly all of them had much better holds on Monday ( ranging from -67 to -72, compared to -77 for Sonic). All of em had Wed higher than Mon by 10-20%, again not the case for Sonic. Best case is a Rio/Home like play here. And every pic there dropped on Sat. Hopefully this is just the frontloaded being baked into the initial part of run and stabilise later on. 

 

[YM!]

21 hours ago, efialtes76 said:

$36M for Sonic 2?

I doubt it.

Even with a 25% jump on Thursday($4.6M) and 150% on Friday($11.5M) it wouldn't do more than $33.5M-$34M.

4.4M (+22%)

[Ezen Baklattan]

It needs to have holds worse than Shazam to get to a 60% drop for Easter. I think $30m is a bit at risk but considering competition from FB (effectively losing its PLF) and the fact that the first film already had a 55% drop, I don't think a high 50s/low 60s drop is THAT bad honestly.

 

[YM!]

15 minutes ago, Ezen Baklattan said:

It needs to have holds worse than Shazam to get to a 60% drop for Easter. I think $30m is a bit at risk but considering competition from FB (effectively losing its PLF) and the fact that the first film already had a 55% drop, I don't think a high 50s/low 60s drop is THAT bad honestly.

 

Not really;

4.4m (+143%)

 

 

10.7M (+6.9% (nice))

11.43M (-42.7%)

6.55M 

 

$28.67m (-60.2% if it has the exact same drops as Shazam)