Weekday Thread ( April 11 - 14) | Father Stu 550K Previews

[BruiseCruise]

Ambulance: $920,000 (+26% YD)

[Flamengo81]

Tuesday increases are just not what they used to be anymore, I think there is enough data to suggest that by now and we will have to accept it. Maybe it changes again, but right now this seems to be the new normal.

[narniadis]

1 hour ago, Flamengo81 said:

Tuesday increases are just not what they used to be anymore, I think there is enough data to suggest that by now and we will have to accept it. Maybe it changes again, but right now this seems to be the new normal.

Correct, the pushback seems to be more in line with the new normal however. Even accounting for the new perspective it seems weak imo when there isnt a holiday/etc to offset. Hence my comment about the week over week showing the lack of yesterday in comparison to say Mondays holds. 

As with all things box office, after 20 years there isn't anything that always constant except change. 

[YM!]

The jump though is a bit concerning though for Sonic. If it follows traditional Easter family stuff second weekend, it’s imply that a sub $30m weekend or a 59.5%+ drop. Probably around 24-26m. Unless we see an absurd Good Friday and Thursday jump which I doubt as it loses PLFs.

Edited April 13, 2022 by YourMother

[ThatWaluigiDude]

I dunno if Sing 2 is a good comparative, since it was released in a holiday and all, but its weekdays looked REALLY inconsistent despite how good it was holding on the weekends.

 

What sucks is that with all this situation with the pandemic we don't have any family movie going that big in more than two years so we can compare their runs.

[Legion Again]

Legion Weekend Forecast  

Dumbledore 43M  

Sonic 34M  

EEAAO 7M

Stu 6.4M  

Lost City 5.4M

Ambulance 4.2M

Morbius 3.9M

Batman 3.9M

Uncharted 1.45M

[YM!]

29 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Legion Weekend Forecast  

Dumbledore 43M  

Sonic 34M  

EEAAO 7M

Stu 6.4M  

Lost City 5.4M

Ambulance 4.2M

Morbius 3.9M

Batman 3.9M

Uncharted 1.45M

How did you get to 34m for Sonic? Just out of curiosity

 

Also nice for EEAAO.

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, YourMother said:

How did you get to 34m for Sonic? Just out of curiosity

 

Also nice for EEAAO.

In many ways 2nd weekends are the hardest. You don’t have any weekly drop or history of weekday:wknd behavior to work with like you do for wks 3+ but also don’t have strong ps data to go off like for openers. Truth be told I had it ~36 on mon from math I have since forgotten and I dinged it very slightly based on weekdays (not very bad but maybe a smidge worse than I would have guessed?).   
 

EEAAO seems like it will expand to ~2000 which is pretty substantial, but looking at comps it could be like 15% PTA drop or a 50% PTA drop (I.e. total crapshoot range). My guess from reception is it will do on the better side of that.

[Tokugennumataka]

Wed - 4.1 (-19) 

Thu - 5 (+22) 

Fri - 13 (+160) 

Sat - 12.4 (-5%) 

Sun - 8 (-35) 

Wknd - 33.5 (-54%) looks like a reasonably high end prediction for Sonic. 

[YM!]

39 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

In many ways 2nd weekends are the hardest. You don’t have any weekly drop or history of weekday:wknd behavior to work with like you do for wks 3+ but also don’t have strong ps data to go off like for openers. Truth be told I had it ~36 on mon from math I have since forgotten and I dinged it very slightly based on weekdays (not very bad but maybe a smidge worse than I would have guessed?).  

True but if the hold isn’t good Wednesday and the jump is not strong enough today, the weekdays would suggest a 24m-26m second weekend. I’m just more so curious on what jumps it’d need for 30m+

[CJohn]

The Bad Guys and The Lost City both opened here today and together with holdhovers FB3, Sonic and Morbius it might be the biggest weekend of the year. Theaters are looking extremely busy across the country today with all kids out of school.

[Brainbug]

52 minutes ago, CJohn said:

The Bad Guys and The Lost City both opened here today and together with holdhovers FB3, Sonic and Morbius it might be the biggest weekend of the year. Theaters are looking extremely busy across the country today with all kids out of school.

 

Portuguese cinema is safed.

[efialtes76]

Wednesday:

Father Stu-$1.55M

Morbius $0.75M(-21/-55%)

The Batman $0.53M(-8%/-34%)

Uncharted $0.205M(-17%/-38%)

 

 

Edited April 14, 2022 by efialtes76

[Eevin]

pretty small drops across the board. 4.3-4.5m seems ideal for sonic, 15-20%ish drop

 

 

[Sandro Mazzola]

4 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

Legion Weekend Forecast  

Dumbledore 43M  

Sonic 34M  

EEAAO 7M

Stu 6.4M  

Lost City 5.4M

Ambulance 4.2M

Morbius 3.9M

Batman 3.9M

Uncharted 1.45M

 

Sandro Forecast:

Dumbledore 43.2M  

Sonic 35.6M  

EEAAO 7M

Stu 6.4M  

Lost City 5.5M

Morbius 4.9M

Ambulance 4.3M

Batman 4.3M

Uncharted 1.7M

[Pinacolada]

3 hours ago, CJohn said:

The Bad Guys and The Lost City both opened here today and together with holdhovers FB3, Sonic and Morbius it might be the biggest weekend of the year. Theaters are looking extremely busy across the country today with all kids out of school.

Yeah international seems like a clusterfuck this weekend 

[CJohn]

1 hour ago, Sandro Mazzola said:

 

Sandro Forecast:

Dumbledore 43.2M  

Sonic 35.6M  

EEAAO 7M

Stu 6.4M  

Lost City 5.5M

Morbius 4.9M

Ambulance 4.3M

Batman 4.3M

Uncharted 1.7M

IN THE ASS WEEKEND FORECAST

Dumbledore DEAD FRANCHISE WALKING

Sonic FAST BLUE HEDGEHOG KILLS COMPETITION 

EEAAO GOAT

Stu LEAD GOES CRAZY BANANAS, SAYS HE WILL FUND ALL THE RELIGIOUS PROJECTS OUT OF HIS POCKET

Lost City FAILED THEATRICAL SAVIOUR

Morbius MORBIUS

Ambulance 6 UNDERGROUND: 2 6 2 UNDERGROUND

Batman APRIL 18 FOR HBO AND CHILL

Uncharted GIVE ME PICTURES OF SPIDER-MAN

[Eric Duncan]

https://deadline.com/2022/04/fantastic-beasts-3-box-office-father-stu-mark-wahlberg-1235002445/

 

Quote

Meanwhile, Columbia Pictures looked to capitalize on the Christian holiday weekend with the Mark Wahlberg R-rated drama Father Stu, about an amateur boxer who eventually becomes a Catholic priest. The pic launched yesterday with $1.55M at 2,705 theaters; there were also 4PM Tuesday previews rolled into that figure. The film currently holds a 95% positive audience score on Rotten Tomatoes and received a 5-star PostTrak exit. Outlook for the weekend over 5-days is $7M to possibly $10M.

 

Meanwhile, Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 2 through six days is up to an estimated $85.1M after a $3.7M Wednesday, -27% from Tuesday. That running total is 9% ahead of the same frame of the first 2020 movie. Sonic 2 came in ahead of its Sunday projection with a $72.1M opening; the pic is expected to ease 50% in weekend 2 with an estimated $36M.

 

[narniadis]

😬 thats a bad Wednesday for Sonic. Hopefully Thursday and Friday are both larger than normal for Good Friday or its gonna aim for around the 25m mark for the weekend. 

Edited April 14, 2022 by narniadis

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, narniadis said:

😬 thats a bad Wednesday for Sonic. Hopefully Thursday and Friday are both larger than normal for Good Friday or its gonna aim for around the 25m mark for the weekend. 

I mean Wednesday was more or less what I expected. It depends on how/if it jumps today and tomorrow Good Friday. 

Edited April 14, 2022 by YourMother