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Eric Smiley

2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

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I should be studying for my organic chemistry final but I’m on a two hour lunch break so, I’ll be back with a list in a moment.

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Way-To-Early DOM 2023 Predictions (Chronological)

 

Kraven the Hunter

$47M OW / $108M DOM


Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

$118M OW / $315M DOM

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom 

$125M OW / $310M DOM

 

John Wick Chapter 4

$77M OW / $214M DOM

 

Mario 

$55M OW / $145M DOM

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

$190M OW / $440M DOM

 

Fast X

$86M OW / $203M DOM

 

The Little Mermaid

$112M OW / $316M DOM

 

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse 

$95M OW / $275M DOM

 

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

$80M OW / $224M DOM

 

Elemental 

$65M OW / $195M DOM

 

The Flash

$77M OW / $188M DOM

 

Indiana Jones 5

$135M OW / $330M DOM

 

Madame Web

$60M OW / $160M DOM

 

M:I Dead Reckoning - Part One 

$90M OW / $250M DOM

 

The Marvels

$165M OW / $410M DOM

 

Dune Part 2

$61M OW / $158M DOM

 

Wonka

$49M OW / $170M DOM

 

Star Trek 4??

$100M OW / $300M DOM

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Posted (edited)

January

Kraven - $35m/$80m

Megan - $17m/$45m

Dementer - $14m/$35m

Harold - $25m/$90m

 

February

Cabin - $22m/$70m

Me - $13m/$40m

Quantumania - $105m/$125m/$320m

Cocaine - $17m/$60m

 

March

Dungeons - $70m/$225m 

Mansion - $45m/$160m 

Aquaman - $135m/$360m

Wick - $40m/$125m

Scream - $50m/$120n

 

April

Mario - $105m/$340m

Lion - $20m/$70m

Reinfeld - $30m/$85m

65 - $12m/$30m

Last Train - $25m/$65m

 

May 

GOTGV3 - $205m/$620m

Fast X - $80m/$185m

TLM - $125m/$165m/$435m

 

June

SpiderVerse - $60m/$185m

Beasts - $35m/$90m

Strays - $30m/$100m

Elemental - $65m/$235m

Flash - $135m/$320m

Indy 5 - $140m five day/$340m

Migration - $75m five day/$220m

 

July

Web - $30m/$60m

MI7 - $95m/$280m

Oppenheimer - $30m/$130m

Barbie - $30m/$115m

Marvels - $170m/$405m
 

August

TMNT - $25m/$90m

Meg 2 - $30m/$90m

Blue Beetle - $95m/$345m

 

September 

3qualizer - $40m/$100m

Quiet Place - $50m/$140m

 

October

Exorcist - $65m/$160m

Paw 2 - $17m/$60m

2une - $75m/$225m

 

November

Blade - $90m/$260m

If - $45m/$185m

Songbirds - $55m/$170m

Trolls - $35m/$150m (either this or IF should open against Blade as counterprogramming)

Foster - $65m five day/$180m

 

December

Wonka - $50m/$200m

Purple - $25m/$115m

Star Trek - $25m/$115m

Tiger - $20m/$105m

 


Top 10
Guardians - $620m/$1.65b

TLM - $435m/$1.25b

Aquaman - $360m/$1.25b

Marvels - $405m/$1.05B

Indy 5 - $340m/$900m

The Flash - $320m/$880m

MI7 - $280m/$835m

Quantumania - $325m/$800m

2une - $225m/$775m

Fast X - $180m/$750m

 

Edited by YourMother
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6 minutes ago, Maggie said:

huh why so low for this? I think it's gonna increase from the predecessor

I thought it’d fall anyways and close proximity to Aquaman.

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First prediction is much like 2022, 2023 will have at least a few big releases move into 2024. 

 

As for Box Office I'm not really great at predicting individual titles (particularly when there is no marketing) but..... I will go DOM OW/DOM Total/WW total format for major movies/ones I'm interested in. 

 

Ant Man 3 - 110/350/870

Haunted Mansion - 35/100/220

Aquaman 2 - 120/360/1B

John Wick 4 - 60/180/400

Scream - 40/100/200

Mario - 40/120/300

GOTG 3 - 195/430/1.1B

Little Mermaid - 150/400/1B

Spiderverse - 70/200/500

Elemental - 50/170/370

Flash - 100/200/650

Indy 5 -150/400/1B

MI7 - 100/300/1B

Oppenheimer - 50/150/400

Marvels - 120/360/1B

Blue Beetle - 70/150/300

Dune 2 - 80/200/500

 

November and December look weak particularly if it ends up that there is no Star Wars or Star Trek which I think is pretty possible. 

 

 

 

 

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I don't see how Quantumania can grow that much from the previous part. Ant-Man & the Wasp did "only" $216.6m (+36.4m of the first film) in 2018 and it was first MCU film after huge Infinity War success(!). The third part has nothing except being another MCU-Ant-Man movie. I'll be surprise if it hits $250m domestic and $350m overseas (with no China release).

 

Same with The Marvels. First Captain Marvel film was such a big hit in 2019 because of Infinity War tease/post-credit scene, and it was the last MCU-film before Endgame - You couldn't watch it otherway except going to cinema. I don't think the first film is a very beloved one, I don't think Brie Larson has a big fandome, it isn't "the first female lead Marvel superhero film" anymore, and I don't see anything intresting / any "hook" for the audience to bring them back to the theaters for the sequel. $300 million domestic is my prediction for now and let's say $550m overseas (no China) for $850m worldwide.

 

Same with DCEU films. Aquaman stole the show in late 2018, but got mixed reception among the critics and the audience, the sequel isn't very anticipated film, and it will be another under-water blockbuster after Wakanda Forever and Avatar: The Way of Water in pretty short period of time. I see here similiar situation as it was with Deadpool (breakout hit) and its sequel (also big, but not as big as the previous one). $290m domestic will be a huge victory for The Lost Kingdome and it will be much harder to get to $1 billion worldwide this time (no Christmas legs, weaker China gross. probably 45 days window and later HBO Max release).

 

The Flash is much harder to predict. DCEU has so many flops and dissapointments in recent years (Wonder Woman 1984, Birds of Prey, The Suicide Squad...) and only one big hit (Aquaman) so I guess it all depends on marketing and how the movie will do on rottentomatoes / metacritic / IMDb. I believe $100m opening weekend is locked, but don't know much over the mark The Flash will go, and how predict his legs (x2.4 ? x3.2 ?).

 

Fast X is another example of a sequel that should drop from the previous one. The seventh instalment was this franchise's peak, F9 become a joke, a meme of 2021. With bad pr after Justin Lin departure from the project, withour heart of the series (Brian R.I.P), without The Rock, I think this one might be TF: The Last Knight of this franchise. $165 million domestic + $480m overseas for now from me.

 

Rise of the Beasts will be also interesting to watch. With new director and some new ideas I think it might go for more than the last one directed by Micheal Bay.

 

The new Indiana Jones film will be huge, but not as big as the previous one, cause every Indy drop from the previous in admission, same will happen this time. It's hard to tell how it ends with current ticket prices, IMAXes, 3D, etc.

 

Spider-Verse sequel, M:I:7 and Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3 will do fine in 2023. I see here nice increases from their predecessors. Guardians should win the summer, the whole year, and I think it's the only film locked to gross over a $1b worldwide next year if Disney advertise it right.

 

January-February ofc will be owned by Avatar 2.

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10 hours ago, jedijake said:

June is very crowded. Christmas is empty except for Wonka (no idea of the status of Star Trek).

 

Disney should throw Indiana Jones 5 to December. That would be great for it!

I don't think they should delay Indy more. 

 

Also, it feels more like a Summer movie and will definitely be ready in June 2023. Although... I think I would move The Marvels to 1st week of July and Indy to last week of July 

 

I still think we are getting a Star Wars movie in December. And it will be the Taika Waititi one. And they will announce it at Celebration. That script is probably more than done. And they can start shooting later this year after Taika is done will all things related to Love and Thunder 

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2 hours ago, ImNotRacistAtAll said:

I don't think they should delay Indy more. 

 

Also, it feels more like a Summer movie and will definitely be ready in June 2023. Although... I think I would move The Marvels to 1st week of July and Indy to last week of July 

 

I still think we are getting a Star Wars movie in December. And it will be the Taika Waititi one. And they will announce it at Celebration. That script is probably more than done. And they can start shooting later this year after Taika is done will all things related to Love and Thunder 

Finish a script this summer. Casting and pre-production for a few months taking us to December, 2022. Then film for 4-6 months. Then post-production. That's IF they even have anything in the works.

 

Not happening. 

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7 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Finish a script this summer. Casting and pre-production for a few months taking us to December, 2022. Then film for 4-6 months. Then post-production. That's IF they even have anything in the works.

 

Not happening. 

I think it's happening. 

 

I have the word. There will be Star Wars movie in 2023 December. There's no way around it. It will the second coming. 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Finish a script this summer. Casting and pre-production for a few months taking us to December, 2022. Then film for 4-6 months. Then post-production. That's IF they even have anything in the works.

 

Not happening. 

But seriously. You're assuming a script is not done already. We have heard about Taika doing this script since December 2020. You're assuming casting has not begun yet or not done already. You're assuming the pre production has not started yet OR is starting really soon. LucasFilm knows how to hide stuff. 

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If a Star Wars movie was coming out next December we would have info by now. 19 months is an awfully quick turnaround for such a big production.

 

Next summer looks ridiculously overcrowded. With production on movies still playing catch up we might see some of them move to the holidays, which looks largely empty at the moment, to allow for breathing room.

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Is there even an MCU film scheduled for November 2023?

 

Blade? Would that be made in time? Fantastic Four? Shang Chi 2? Maybe whatever they were planning for November can be pushed to December?

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