WEEKEND THREAD: No one went to the Danger Zone :( 145M JWD, 51.8M TGM, EEAAO reaches 61 DOM

[Brainbug]

For Fun, here are the highest-grossing trilogys of all time (Pure trilogys, so for example Avengers 1-3 or 2-4 isnt counted as that series isnt a trilogy. But i realize its a wonky definitin, so youre free to disagree with the trilogys i used):

 

01. Star Wars Sequel Trilogy: 4,474B WW

02. Spider-Man "Home" Trilogy: 3,913B WW

03. LOTR trilogy: 2,991B WW

04. Hobbit trilogy: 2,931B WW

05. POTC OT: 2,683B WW

06. Transformers 1-3: 2,668B WW

07. Despicable Me trilogy: 2,548B WW

08. Star Wars Prequels: 2,525B WW

09. Raimi Spider-Man: 2,502B WW

10. TDK trilogy: 2,460B WW

11. Iron Man Trilogy: 2,422B WW

 

Jurassic World and FK together account for 2,980B, so JW trilogy without Dominion is already #4.

 

Assuming a worst-case (imo) 850M WW gross for Dominion, the trilogy would stand at 3,830B. Assuming a more realistic 950M WW, its 3,930B WW.

 

So the JW trilogy has a good shot at becoming the 2nd highest-grossing pure trilogy of all time.

 

Edit: Added Transformers 1-3

Edited June 11, 2022 by Brainbug the Dinosaur

[Valonqar]

Dinokino has never been an online thing. Social media underhype it so boxoffice watchers get surprised when it ends up with A range audience score and higher than expected opening. 

[wildphantom]

There can only be one explanation as to how Universal got audiences to give it an A- ….

 

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Dinokino has never been an online thing. Social media underhype it so boxoffice watchers get surprised when it ends up with A range audience score and higher than expected opening. 

 

Jurassic Park/World as a franchise has a hard fanbase that is extremely tiny compared to other mega-franchises like Marvel/DC/Star Wars. The thing is though that the whole GA is potentially a fan and ticket buyer for these movies since Dinosaurs are such a universal concept.

[wildphantom]

I’m realising by the end of the week when I’ve seen JWD again that I’ll have spent the same amount on it as TG2

 

 

[Joyous Legion]

There’s definitely a tension between the CS and verified aud here. Occam’s razor suggests that the “true” reception is likely somewhere in between what either would suggest independently. It’s hard to test for relative correlative value because they themself are so correlated in most cases. PostTrak will be another data point soon.
 

Anyway I still feel like this is going to miss 8x and open down from the last one in gross and double digits down in admits. If people wanna cheer for that that’s their prerogative, I guess it reflects just how drastic expectations had gotten, but it seems pretty bad to me. Between the og cast and finally delivering on dinos in world hook, there was a broad consensus on these boards (and other credible tracking models) before pre-sales that this should  increase from FK in admits and certainly in gross. People continued to hope/expect that even after underwhelming PS start and well into underwhelming PS middle. The poor execution squandered that.

Edited June 11, 2022 by Legion and Thunder

[scoobysaurus]

7 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

For Fun, here are the highest-grossing trilogys of all time (Pure trilogys, so for example Avengers 1-3 or 2-4 isnt counted as that series isnt a trilogy. But i realize its a wonky definitin, so youre free to disagree with the trilogys i used):

 

01. Star Wars Sequel Trilogy: 4,474B WW

02. Spider-Man "Home" Trilogy: 3,913B WW

03. LOTR trilogy: 2,991B WW

04. Hobbit trilogy: 2,931B WW

05. POTC OT: 2,683B WW

06. Despicable Me trilogy: 2,548B WW

07. Star Wars Prequels: 2,525B WW

08. Raimi Spider-Man: 2,502B WW

09. TDK trilogy: 2,460B WW

10. Iron Man Trilogy: 2,422B WW

 

Jurassic World and FK together account for 2,980B, so JW trilogy without Dominion is already #4.

 

Assuming a worst-case (imo) 850M WW gross for Dominion, the trilogy would stand at 3,830B. Assuming a more realistic 950M WW, its 3,930B WW.

 

So the JW trilogy has a good shot at becoming the 2nd highest-grossing pure trilogy of all time.

And what about the best case scenario? lol

 

I remember there was a club a few years back for JW becoming the highest grossing trilogy, but that seems very unlikely or probably impossible right now. JWD had to make 1.4b+ WW, and had a shot at doing so too if dominion was well received. Guess we'll have to be content with second place. Sigh

[ThomasNicole]

Decent CS. It's probably a bit inflated but definitely not bad. 

 

With good walkups this still can open close to 150M, maybe it won't have bag legs and can fight for 400M.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, scoobysaurus said:

And what about the best case scenario? lol

 

I remember there was a club a few years back for JW becoming the highest grossing trilogy, but that seems very unlikely or probably impossible right now. JWD had to make 1.4b+ WW, and had a shot at doing so too if dominion was well received. Guess we'll have to be content with second place. Sigh

 

Best case atm is probably right around 1B, so would be 3,980B. Not too far off from the SW sequels and a good amount higher than the MCU's highest-grossing single trilogy.

 

Idk, i could live with that

[Mulder]

I hated Dominion. I think it's awful. I still find it hilarious how THIS is the movie where people are going to argue CinemaScore doesn't matter or is somehow not right? Really? lol

[Joyous Legion]

Now do geomean WW peak rank 😛 

[Joyous Legion]

Just now, Legion and Thunder said:

Now do geomean WW peak rank 😛 

I might do this this wknd if I get some time — might be more informative to use peak non-Cameron rank though

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Decent CS. It's probably a bit inflated but definitely not bad. 

 

With good walkups this still can open close to 150M, maybe it won't have bag legs and can fight for 400M.

 

I think when it comes to the legs any kind of worse WOM for it than FK got also gets balanced out by the context of the release calendar.

 

What is there for summer moviegoers (especially familys) that want to go to the theaters for the next 6 weeks? Its Top Gun, Dominion and Lightyear basically before Thor hits on July 8. Even with a 600M+ grossing Top Gun ... thats not too much for the family and action crowds for mid-to late June and early July.

 

I think people predicting bad legs for Dominion could be in for a surprise.

[Valonqar]

26 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Jurassic Park/World as a franchise has a hard fanbase that is extremely tiny compared to other mega-franchises like Marvel/DC/Star Wars. The thing is though that the whole GA is potentially a fan and ticket buyer for these movies since Dinosaurs are such a universal concept.

 

yep. it's a walk-up franchise, popular with people who aren't likely to log in a review on LRM, IMDB, RT, etc. So it's less predictable.

[EmeraldWitch]

37 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

For Fun, here are the highest-grossing trilogys of all time (Pure trilogys, so for example Avengers 1-3 or 2-4 isnt counted as that series isnt a trilogy. But i realize its a wonky definitin, so youre free to disagree with the trilogys i used):

 

01. Star Wars Sequel Trilogy: 4,474B WW

02. Spider-Man "Home" Trilogy: 3,913B WW

03. LOTR trilogy: 2,991B WW

04. Hobbit trilogy: 2,931B WW

05. POTC OT: 2,683B WW

06. Despicable Me trilogy: 2,548B WW

07. Star Wars Prequels: 2,525B WW

08. Raimi Spider-Man: 2,502B WW

09. TDK trilogy: 2,460B WW

10. Iron Man Trilogy: 2,422B WW

 

Jurassic World and FK together account for 2,980B, so JW trilogy without Dominion is already #4.

 

Assuming a worst-case (imo) 850M WW gross for Dominion, the trilogy would stand at 3,830B. Assuming a more realistic 950M WW, its 3,930B WW.

 

So the JW trilogy has a good shot at becoming the 2nd highest-grossing pure trilogy of all time.

Do you have something against Transformers man?

[JohnnyGossamer]

25 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

I think when it comes to the legs any kind of worse WOM for it than FK got also gets balanced out by the context of the release calendar.

 

What is there for summer moviegoers (especially familys) that want to go to the theaters for the next 6 weeks? Its Top Gun, Dominion and Lightyear basically before Thor hits on July 8. Even with a 600M+ grossing Top Gun ... thats not too much for the family and action crowds for mid-to late June and early July.

 

I think people predicting bad legs for Dominion could be in for a surprise.

I'd throw in Minions. I know, I know... But, I still very much expect 250M+ DOM for it and it's realeasing 7/1/22 which is a really great release date.

[Brainbug]

7 minutes ago, EmeraldWitch said:

Do you have something against Transformers man?

 

Transformers 1-3 was a close call for me if i include it or not since yeah you could name it the "original Transformers trilogy" but the series just continued afterwards and ive not seen anyone ever call the first 3 a kind of separate trilogy. But since you could argue similarly with the first 3 POTC movies (though i would personally disagree since that is clearly the Gore Verbinski Pirates trilogy), the numbers would be 2,668B.

 

So if you want to count first 3 TF's as a trilogy, it would be #6 currently, soon to be #7.

[wildphantom]

2 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I'd throw in Minions. I know, I know... But, I still very much expect 250M+ DOM for it and it's realeasing 7/1/22 which is a really great release date.

Minions will definitely do well.  Such a safe movie to take your kids to see in the summer. People will get exactly what they expect. That one is a solid bet for a lovely number for Universal. 

[Valonqar]

@Brainbug the Dinosaur Have to correct your list. #5 is Avatar with $2,847,397,339. I know that it's been just 1 movie so far, but it is a franchise cause sequels have been in the works for years, so it should be on the list. It's also very likely going to knock Home franchise off #2 when Way of the Water comes out though I'd prefer it knocks Star Wars. 

Edited June 11, 2022 by Valonqar

[LegendaryBen]

NBA Finals were on last night. It’s ratings are probably not as strong as pre pandemic but they may have impacted movies last night (as numbers did not increase that much from DL compared to EC). Therefore, I expect nice increases for JWD and TGM’s today vs their true Fridays.