BO Germany/Austria: Deadpool&Wolverine #1

[IndustriousAngel]

I think FB can reach 3mil with this weekend but it's not locked (mind, it's a 5-day weekend!)

 

WbdH is locked for 3mil but it's dropping worse than in prior estimates so 4mil seem out of reach with this number.

[Aristis]

Final Trend:

 

FB 910k WOM seems great! About 825k for the Weekend, second after Dory's 875k (I hope that the $9,9M get $10M - I hoped for $10M )

WbdH 405k (-17%) 1,7M cume. Maybe next Weekend it can increase again...

Trolls 110k (-11%) This movie seems to have great WOM!

DS 105k (-46%) Strange drops harder and harder from Weekend to Weekend - but with FB arriving that's probably OK.

JR2 100k (-40%/-45%)

Petterson und Findus 65k (+6%)

Dory 50k (-31%) 3,7M cume, so - what I didn't expect - it still can outgross Pets (3,8M) and Zoo (3,82M).

Edited November 21, 2016 by Aristis

[James]

1 minute ago, Aristis said:

Final Trend:

 

FB 910k WOM seems great! About 825k for the Weekend, second after Dory's 875k

WbdH 405k (-17%) 1,7M cume. Maybe next Weekend it can increase again...

Trolls 110k (-11%) This movie seems to have great WOM!

DS 105k (-46%) Strange drops harder and harder from Weekend to Weekend - but with FB arriving that's probably OK.

JR2 100k (-40%/-45%)

Petterson und Findus 65k (+6%)

Dory 50k (-31%) 3,7M cume, so - what I didn't expect - it still can outgross Pets (3,8M) and Zoo (3,82M).

That's amazing for FB. Especially considering how in 9/10 cases this year in Germany the final trend brought numbers down. I am expecting great legs. 

[IndustriousAngel]

Really nice that it's not behaving like a franchise entry, not frontloaded at all!

 

In Austria, FB's start was a little bumpier, but still a safe #1. WbdH is much weaker in Austria, as is often the case with german comedies (and vice versa) so Austria's weekend was a little disappointing while Germany hat a rather good weekend with FB and WbdH both stronger than expected (still down from last year though)

 

[Quigley]

8 hours ago, Aristis said:

Dory 50k (-31%) 3,7M cume, so - what I didn't expect - it still can outgross Pets (3,8M) and Zoo (3,82M).

 

As if this is any consolation to our grave despair and grief.

[CoolK]

10 hours ago, Quigley said:

 

As if this is any consolation to our grave despair and grief.

IMO FD's OS run is pretty much inline with the film itself....MEDIOCRE 

[terrestrial]

Quote

 Den ersten Schätzungen nach erobert Phantastische Tierwesen ... ~ 910T Besucher. Das eigentliche Wochenende ist das zweitbeste, nach Umsatz des beste des Jahres.

Willkommen bei den Hartmanns (ca. 405T) b...insgesant bislang über 1,7 Mio. Besucher.

Trolls (ca. 110T) und Doctor Strange (ca. 105T) .... Jack Reacher - ... die 100T-Marke nur knapp verpasst hat.

Pettersson & Findus - Da... (ca. 65T) .... Findet Dorie i... über der 50T-Marke. ....Estimates insgesamt bei 3,7 Mio. Besuchern und hat gute Chancen an Pets (3,8 Mio.) und Zoomania (3,82 Mio.) vorbeizuziehen.

Die Top Ten steigerten sich gegenüber der Vorwoche um etwa 30 %, gegenüber dem gleichen Wochenende 47 im Vorjahr, als Mockingjay 2 mit 1.143.332 Besuchern zum Start die Charts angeführt hat, ging es um ca. 22 % runter.

Estimates:

Fantastic Beasts ~ 910k adm = 2nd best weekend, money-wist gest of the year

local film Wilkommen... ~ 405k adm = over 1.7m adm. total

Trolls 110k

Doctor Stramge 105k

Jack Reacher under 100k

Petterson 65k

Dory over 50k = ~ 3.7m adm. = good chances to get Pets and Zootopia

Top 10 30% higher than last week, weekend #47 in comparison -22% (last year Mockingjay...)

 

http://www.insidekino.com/News.htm  from 21 November

Edited November 22, 2016 by terrestrial

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Fantastic Beasts	826.697	767	1.078	911.486	9.464.134	-	1
2	Willkommen bei den Hartmanns	407.561	714	571	1.709.393	14.003.597	-16	3
3	Trolls	110.991	645	172	916.342	6.712.023	-9	5
4	Doctor Strange	104.718	479	219	1.301.850	14.294.257	-46	4
5	Jack Reacher 2	97.834	513	191	326.130	2.819.268	-41	2
6	Pettersson & Findus - Weihnachten	66.345	503	132	234.566	1.499.853	+8	3
7	Finding Dory	51.921	576	90	3.703.431	31.006.172	-28	8
8	Bridget Jones's Baby	45.831	478	96	1.117.715	9.550.594	-41	5
9	The Girl on the Train	38.809	370	105	446.933	3.839.861	-40	4
10	Inferno	38.695	382	101	1.465.452	12.869.695	-45	6
11	Tini - Violettas Zukunft	34.196	429	80	227.027	1.540.341	-19	3
12	Paterson	27.624	89	310	29.585	233.937	-	1
13	Café Society	24.420	135	181	79.802	631.562	-32	2
14	Burg Schreckenstein	20.978	428	49	295.800	1.858.013	-29	5
15	Storks	19.503	352	55	191.200	1.358.233	-31	4
16	Before I Wake	15.146	195	78	54.929	473.173	-50	2
17	Radio Heimat	14.689	125	118	25.616	183.651	-	1
18	Egon Schiele - Tod und Mädchen	14.302	84	170	18.706	140.298	-	1
19	Miss Peregrine's Home For Peculiar Children	11.453	193	59	842.587	8.313.688	-53	7
20	Bad Moms	7.811	133	59	1.276.737	10.455.613	-52	9

 

Fantastic Beasts had a good opening, most important: It had a good internal multiplier which should mean much better holds than we were used to from the Potter franchise. Among other openers, let's not forget Paterson - playing in less than 90 theaters, it had a fine PTA - Jarmusch is still a name you can rely upon. Among holdovers, Willkommen bei den Hartmanns is shining with another powerful hold - might reach 4mil total!

 

While it was, overall, a fine weekend, this week's chart might also be titled "Franchises in Decline": FB didn't even reach 50% of the Potter films, Dory will not reach 4mil total (also a drop >50% from Nemo), Inferno is crawling towards 1,5mil total (the first two adaptions counted 5,6 resp. 4,6mil admissions, so a drop >70%) … even this year's Petterson&Findus is trailing the first one (though I have some hopes for its legs, with the xmas theme).

 

Next weekend: The big opener is Arrival, which has ok reviews but no action and no Nolan - original SF without those ingredients is a tough sell in Germany, for now I'm pegging it at maybe 250k OW - but hopefully it can go higher! Also opening: Deepwater Horizon and Florence Foster Jenkins (I feel very little interest for both, too US-centric I think) and Bad Santa 2 (that one might have had a decent chance at 1mil total, but with WbdH already satisfying the comedy segment, I can't see that any longer).

[seduh]

Sorry but it's not fair to compare the situation of Finding Dory with Fantastic Beast. FD was a sequel, FB is a spin off with a whole new story. It's a very sucesfull opening, it could have been better, but also it could have been worse. Second biggest 3 day OW of the year, so a great start

[IndustriousAngel]

52 minutes ago, seduh said:

Sorry but it's not fair to compare the situation of Finding Dory with Fantastic Beast. FD was a sequel, FB is a spin off with a whole new story. It's a very sucesfull opening, it could have been better, but also it could have been worse. Second biggest 3 day OW of the year, so a great start

 

Spin off or sequel ... there's a definite reason why WB produced FB and put 180mil USD into the project (not to mention marketing) - they are expanding the Potter franchise. I think everybody expected a drop from the HP films, but in Germany it seems to drop much harder than in the US or UK market.

[IndustriousAngel]

At my theater, the only of the four (semi-)wide openers doing at least half decent is Arrival; Deepwater has only about 1/3 of Arrival's bookings; BadSanta and FFJ are virtually empty

[Noctis]

How is FB holding up?

[IndustriousAngel]

1 hour ago, Noctis said:

How is FB holding up?

From what I'm seeing I'd say a 30% drop, rather good if true.

[seduh]

23 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

 

Spin off or sequel ... there's a definite reason why WB produced FB and put 180mil USD into the project (not to mention marketing) - they are expanding the Potter franchise. I think everybody expected a drop from the HP films, but in Germany it seems to drop much harder than in the US or UK market.

A lot of movies got huge budget these day (some very difficult to understand). Obiously WB has high hopes for FB but this is the firt movie of a new franchise that expands the Harry Potter Universe. It don´t have any of the characters of the HP movies (like the Hobbit) or explore part of the history of the HP film (like Rogue One will do), so it did great business. Let's see how it does in the next weeks, but i have a feeling it's not gona behave as frontloaded as HP films

[efialtes76]

On 22/11/2016 at 10:15 PM, IndustriousAngel said:

 

Spin off or sequel ... there's a definite reason why WB produced FB and put 180mil USD into the project (not to mention marketing) - they are expanding the Potter franchise. I think everybody expected a drop from the HP films, but in Germany it seems to drop much harder than in the US or UK market.

2016 isn't a good year for Germany's boxoffice(at least for Big movies)

Zootopia is the number 1 of 2016 with 3.8mio admissions...

 

Edited November 23, 2016 by efialtes76

[el sid]

The Thursday estimates (very early taken this week) via insidekino.de (forum):

New Releases:

Arrival: 18.5k (starts in 397 theaters, very good reviews) - if this number holds it will be impossible to reach 250k I think but at least it is no disaster as DH
Deepwater Horizon: 3.5k (358, good to very good reviews) - not that I expected much but this is still surprisingly bad
Florence Foster Jenkins: 4k (170, ok to very good reviews)
Bad Santa 2: 1k (138, a few mediocre reviews)

Holdovers:

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: 44.5k (last Thursday: 95k) – pretty ok and probably - because it's clearly an evening film - underestimated
Willkommen bei den Hartmanns: 32.5k
Jack Reacher 2: 6k (13k)
Doctor Strange: 5.5k (13k)
Bridget Jones's Baby: 5k (7k)
Girl on the Train: 1.5k (5k)

So with the exception of Arrival no good start for the newcomers.
FB and Hartmanns should hold well.

Edited November 24, 2016 by el sid

[terrestrial]

1. Trend for the upcoming weekend

Quote

Trend:
Phantastische Tierwesen ... (FB) ... #1 in it's 2nd WE ~ 525k admissions (1.65m in 11 days).
local Willkommen bei den Hartmanns, #2 .... 4th WE ~ 275k admissions = total 2.1m adm. = most successful local film of the year

new release #1 Arrival, ~ 160k adm.
Trolls (65k)

Florence Foster Jenkins, Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange, Jack Reacher, and Pettersson & Findus seem to have to fight for who will end on #5

as usal insidekino.de

[IndustriousAngel]

that's really a disaster for most new releases, at least Arrival does some business but also less than I hoped for.

[Noctis]

Is that good for FB?

[IndustriousAngel]

19 minutes ago, Noctis said:

Is that good for FB?

This would be a drop in the 35% range, a beet steeper than I hoped but obviously the whole weekend is not that good so I'd say it's an ok drop.