IndustriousAngel Posted December 4, 2017 Author Share Posted December 4, 2017 yep, Germans don't go to the movies that often ... Austria is only slightly better, 1.5 or 1.6 the last time I looked. Personally I've watched about 20 movies this year on the big screen (Valerian was the only one I saw twice). btw Austria's November numbers are in and it's been an ok month, a bit below average but no disaster thanks to strong performances from FJG3, BadMoms2 and Thor3 (and prople keep asking why studios produce mainly sequels these days ...) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 (edited) 21 minutes ago, Aristis said: Isn't it in Japan more like 1,3 or 1,4 too? (Population 127M, Admissions ca.165M). France is so huge... I only said the numbers I had in mind at this exact moment, that's not 100% accurate. @Tower made a great list about this. I only watch 4-6 movies a year, I'm totally in the French average ^^ Edited December 4, 2017 by Fullbuster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 (edited) 3 hours ago, Fullbuster said: In Germany the average is 1.4 movies per year In France it's close to 5 In Brazil it's 0.8 In Japan it's 1 France - 2016: 213 admissions/ 66.9m pop = 3.18 avg I think the largest avg in Europe is Ireland with 3.3 (not far behind that is N. Ireland at 3.1) UK is 2.56 avg (168m admissions last year/ 64.5m pop) Spain: 2.15 avg (100.3m admissions/ 46.5m pop) Poland: about 1.3 avg Europe: 1.6 http://variety.com/2017/film/global/spain-box-office-2016-a-monster-calls-the-secret-life-of-pets-1201950985/ http://variety.com/2017/film/global/european-admissions-up-box-office-slips-1202463999/ For comparison - Some Global markets in 2009 (look at China) Edited December 4, 2017 by TalismanRing 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 (edited) 12 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said: yep, Germans don't go to the movies that often ... Austria is only slightly better, 1.5 or 1.6 the last time I looked. Personally I've watched about 20 movies this year on the big screen (Valerian was the only one I saw twice). btw Austria's November numbers are in and it's been an ok month, a bit below average but no disaster thanks to strong performances from FJG3, BadMoms2 and Thor3 (and prople keep asking why studios produce mainly sequels these days ...) So, now that we're in December, what can you say about the German/Austrian market in 2017? Will they grow over 2016? @TalismanRing Wow, this number for France seems low, I'm sure it was closer to 4 or 5 several years ago. Edited December 4, 2017 by Fullbuster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 (edited) 2 hours ago, Fullbuster said: In Germany the average is 1.4 movies per year In France it's close to 5 In Brazil it's 0.8 In Japan it's 1 5 seems too high. Correct me if I am wrong, but according jpbox-office.com, France sold 212.7 million admissions last year. And the population of the country is 66.9 million. That means 3.2 tickets per person and year. It is still high for European standards (2.15 is the ratio in Spain, for example). Edit: I have already seen that @TalismanRing said the same before Edited December 4, 2017 by peludo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 (edited) 32 minutes ago, peludo said: 5 seems too high. Correct me if I am wrong, but according jpbox-office.com, France sold 212.7 million admissions last year. And the population of the country is 66.9 million. That means 3.2 tickets per person and year. It is still high for European standards (2.15 is the ratio in Spain, for example). Edit: I have already seen that @TalismanRing said the same before Yeah, let's say I got a sudden excess of national pride ahahaha But as I said the numbers seemed higher several years ago, the population increased but the number of tickets sold pretty much stagnated. I can see this number decreasing even further. Edited December 4, 2017 by Fullbuster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 40 minutes ago, TalismanRing said: France - 2016: 213 admissions/ 66.9m pop = 3.18 avg I think the largest avg in Europe is Ireland with 3.3 (not far behind that is N. Ireland at 3.1) UK is 2.56 avg (168m admissions last year/ 64.5m pop) Spain: 2.15 avg (100.3m admissions/ 46.5m pop) Poland: about 1.3 avg Europe: 1.6 http://variety.com/2017/film/global/spain-box-office-2016-a-monster-calls-the-secret-life-of-pets-1201950985/ http://variety.com/2017/film/global/european-admissions-up-box-office-slips-1202463999/ For comparison - Some Global markets in 2009 (look at China) Wow these numbers are pretty old, Brazil got 186 million admissions in 2016 ^^" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tower Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, Fullbuster said: I only said the numbers I had in mind at this exact moment, that's not 100% accurate. @Tower made a great list about this. I only watch 4-6 movies a year, I'm totally in the French average ^^ Here's the table I made of admissions (I added Australia New Zealand and Israel): Market Admissions(M) Population(M) Admissions per capita Iceland 1.5 0.338 4.43 South Korea 217.026 50.801 4.27 Australia 91.3 23.402 3.90 USA+Canada 1315.2 359.572 3.66 New Zealand 16.016 4.693 3.41 Ireland 15.8 4.758 3.32 France 212.7 66.984 3.18 Mexico 327 122.273 2.67 United Kingdom 168.3 65.382 2.57 Estonia 3.3 1.318 2.50 Norway 13.12 5.252 2.50 Denmark 13 5.749 2.26 Luxembourg 1.3 0.576 2.26 Spain 102 46.812 2.18 Israel 17.544 8.628 2.03 Netherlands 34.2 16.979 2.01 Italy 112.5 60.590 1.86 Sweden 17.8 9.982 1.78 Austria 15.100 8.774 1.72 Belgium 19.4 11.353 1.71 Switzeland 13.4 8.401 1.60 Finland 8.7 5.503 1.58 Hungary 14.6 9.830 1.49 Czech Republic 15.6 10.572 1.48 Germany 121.1 82.176 1.47 Portugal 14.9 10.341 1.44 Japan 180.189 126.86 1.42 Poland 52.1 38.439 1.36 Russia 194.7 146.839 1.33 Lithuania 3.7 2.849 1.30 Latvia 2.5 1.953 1.28 Argentina 48.9 43.85 1.12 Slovenia 2.3 2.064 1.11 Slovakia 5.7 5.426 1.05 Croatia 4.3 4.191 1.03 China 1372 1,381.54 0.99 Greece 10 10.784 0.93 Brazil 185 206.441 0.90 Belarus 7.996 9.505 0.84 Cyprus 0.7 0.848 0.83 Bulgaria 5.5 7.154 0.77 Turkey 58.3 79.815 0.73 Romania 13 19.760 0.66 Montenegro 0.3 0.622 0.48 Serbia 3.249 7.076 0.46 Liechtenstein 0.016 0.038 0.42 Georgia 1.1 3.720 0.30 Macedonia 0.4 2.074 0.19 Edited December 4, 2017 by Tower 2 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 5, 2017 Author Share Posted December 5, 2017 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Coco 198.388 613 324 198.388 1.680.041 - 1 2 Paddington 2 124.398 739 168 451.522 3.112.298 -47 2 3 Fack Ju Göhte 3 109.581 688 159 5.667.720 49.577.272 -48 6 4 Murder on the Orient Express 104.865 689 152 915.614 8.103.309 -37 4 5 Justice League 71.973 527 137 528.977 5.576.263 -43 3 6 Bad Moms 2 49.969 484 103 683.128 5.831.246 -52 4 7 Aus dem Nichts 44.674 245 182 152.022 1.305.027 -40 2 8 Happy Death Day 40.185 321 125 294.051 2.455.207 -48 3 9 Thor 3 38.996 314 124 1.398.266 15.375.970 -47 5 10 Flatliners 36.189 293 124 54.511 417.885 - 1 11 Girls Trip 33.150 318 104 49.278 397.410 - 1 12 Madame 18.020 104 173 20.153 163.728 - 1 13 Hexe Lilli rettet Weihnachten 15.816 546 29 212.463 1.380.086 -59 4 14 Augsburger Puppenkiste 10.788 411 26 10.788 63.350 - 1 15 Der Mann aus dem Eis 8.527 95 90 13.350 110.715 - 1 16 Kardesim Benim 2 7.844 51 154 24.389 227.013 -36 2 17 Jigsaw 7.702 208 37 482.390 4.298.218 -43 6 18 Cars 3 5.108 256 20 1.302.705 9.778.208 -66 10 19 The Big Sick 4.410 99 45 60.595 436.735 -60 3 20 Yol Arkadasim 3.968 26 153 38.391 345.224 -13 5 Talk about a disappointing weekend … not a single opener with good numbers, and horrible drops across the chart. So, let's move on: Next weekend: Daddy's Home 2; A Ghost Story, The Mountain Between Us - plus some domestic and turkish releases and french comedy Epouse-moi mon pote … really nothing here to give me any hope for a surprise hit or even decent numbers. Obviously distributors were shying away from StarWars next weekend and I can't blame them. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tower Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 If you are interested in the table I posted, I added some countries and made it a thread of its own: 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 On 4.12.2017 at 5:09 PM, Fullbuster said: So, now that we're in December, what can you say about the German/Austrian market in 2017? Will they grow over 2016? Top10 numbers are now behind 2016. If SW won't save this year it could be worse than the catastrophy of 2016... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Aristis said: Top10 numbers are now behind 2016. If SW won't save this year it could be worse than the catastrophy of 2016... Oh my...I forgot 2016 wasn't great already...2017 being worse is definitely weird. That's a weird trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 If all of the five noticeable starts left succeed on some level, things could look a bit better than they do now. 2016: 4m+: --- 3m+: 6 2m+: 12 (1 missed out by 5k) 1m+: 31 2017 (in brackets movies that could get there, with ? if very much up in the air): 7m+: 0 -> 1? (Star Wars?) 6m+: 0 -> 1?/2? (Star Wars?, FJG3?) 5m+: 1 -> 2 (Star Wars) 4m+: 2 -> 3/4? (Star Wars, Dieses bescheuerte Herz?) 3m+: 6 -> 7/8? (same as above) 2m+: 8 -> 9/10? (same as above) 1m+: 24 -> 27-31? (existing ones, plus Orient Express, SW, Dieses bescheuerte Herz, Paddington 2?, Ferdinand?, Jumanji?, PP3?) Of the movies already released, FjG3 could move into the 6m+ range. Murder on the Orient Express should top 1m. Maybe Paddington can use the holidays to get there as well? New starts left that could succeed: - Star Wars could top 6m or 7m, though Episodes II and III only had 5.8m and 5.6m, so who knows. - Dieses bescheuerte Herz (with Elias M'Barek, possibly 2/3/4m or even more?) - Ferdinand - Jumanji - Pitch Perfect 3 Who knows, maybe Ferdinand or Jumanji surprise and even top 2m admissions. Though with Star Wars and Dieses bescheuerte Herz starting it might be a bit too much to expect. We definately will have a higher peak this year, but the modest successes haven't really been there so far. The last time we had less than 30 movies above 1m was in 2012, and that year saw the top 4 movies combine for 30m admissions, while this year might be lucky to break 20m. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 First trend is up, and it isn't looking particularly good. As Mark G. writes, last weekend had the worst top 10 of the 4th quarter in nine years, and this one looks to be even worse: #1 Coco 160k (-19%) #2 Paddington 2 140k (+13%) #3 Murder on the Orient Express 75k (-29%) #4 FjG3 70k (-36%) #5 Daddy's Home 2 70k 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omni Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Compared to Paddington's, Coco's hold doesn't look impressive at all. I was expecting it to remain about flat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Second Trend: Coco - 160K Paddington 2- 125K MOTOE - 80K FJG3 - 75K DH2 -72.5K JL- 40K 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giesi Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 The boxoffice is really dreadful except for FJG3, insidekino predicts a 1,7mil opening weekend for TLJ, do you guys think that‘s too high? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 9, 2017 Author Share Posted December 9, 2017 Opening might get that high but I doubt if it'll reach the total of Ep7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 (edited) No idea whether it is too high in terms of presales or tracking, but it definately isn't too high when compared to what episodes regularly had as opening. 1.7m would actually be the weakest start of any of the modern episodes, which obviously excludes Rogue One. Episode I had 1.787m, II 1.847m, III 1.965m and VII 2.139m. Though I'm not 100% sure if the prequels may have had previews that happened before midnight. I don't think evening previews were a thing at that time yet, as I very much remember the midnight showings, but I can't state it as fact. Regarding presales, I really stopped trying to judge starts based on those. Episode VII had out of this world presales that even led insidekino to mention the possibility of a 3m opening weekend at some point, and we all saw how that turned out. The movie was extremely presales-heavy. But that doesn't necessarily mean that this one will be the same. And we do have some cases where presales looked almost weak but the opening turned out to be just fine, see FjG3, even if that was quite a bit lower than the last one. It's really hard to say where movies are heading these days. I definately do agree that VIII won't come anywhere near VII in terms of the total. At this point, taking the expected OW into account, I'd say the 6m range seems to be the target, though with a better start maybe 7m could be possible as well. Then again, II and III came in below 6m, and both started with close to 2m. But I think VII had a better reception than I or II did, even if it wasn't quite as good as in the US. Has anyone seen how much marketing there has been for this movie? I haven't really paid attention to that, but it doesn't seem like there is a ton of it so far. I don't remember lots of marketing for Rogue One either, making me wonder if they just don't bother to the same extend anymore or if I just miss out on it. Edited December 9, 2017 by George Parr 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Monday numbers: Coco 155k (-22%) 395k (Should have done that in OW...) Paddington2 107,5k (-13%) 590k Orient Express 85k (-19%) 1,04M FJG3 75k (-32%) 5,77M Daddy2 60k/75k JL 40k (-44%) 590k Bad Moms 35k (-30%) 735k Thor3 27,5k (-29%) 1,435M (passed Thor2) 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...