Taruseth Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Aristis said: I'm not yet sold on the idea of SW9 not reaching 5M, I mean if so AEG remaining at the top wouldn't be that far away 😬 But this looks extremely weak for a SW movie. I've counted some numbers for the first time and in only one cinema (so this could be just an anecdote) but it actually lost presales from yesterday to today... This movie will probably have to fight to become even 2nd of the year. Awful. But we don't have actuals yet for Germany so maybe we should wait... What? So presales for Thusrday are lower than they were yesterday? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bart Allen Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 11 minutes ago, Taruseth said: What? So presales for Thusrday are lower than they were yesterday? I think so? Still looking into that, but Joker made more on its opening day than The Rise of Skywalker in Italy, so that may be a sign of things to come across Europe, including the UK 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 16 minutes ago, Taruseth said: What? So presales for Thusrday are lower than they were yesterday? Indeed. As I said, it's just one cinema. Still it seems remarkable that it doesn't really gain presales shortly before the release... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin4125 Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 13 minutes ago, Bart Allen said: I think so? Still looking into that, but Joker made more on its opening day than The Rise of Skywalker in Italy, so that may be a sign of things to come across Europe, including the UK 😂 Doesnt say anything. Italy has never really represented BO in Europe. Joker made almost twice as much as TLJ in Italy, but TLJ made much, much more in the majors (France, Germany and UK) Italy has always underwhelmed for tentpole flicks, its a very different market for movies 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bart Allen Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Justin4125 said: Doesnt say anything. Italy has never really represented BO in Europe. Joker made almost twice as much as TLJ in Italy, but TLJ made much, much more in the majors (France, Germany and UK) Italy has always underwhelmed for tentpole flicks, its a very different market for movies Well true true, but I feel the nigh-unanimously mixed reception for this film is an important variable ~ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 24 minutes ago, Bart Allen said: I think so? Still looking into that, but Joker made more on its opening day than The Rise of Skywalker in Italy, so that may be a sign of things to come across Europe, including the UK 😂 I think that TROS probably only will win (opening das & weekend) and in Germany and Scandinavia. Netherlands etc. most likely will be a close call. 22 minutes ago, Aristis said: Indeed. As I said, it's just one cinema. Still it seems remarkable that it doesn't really gain presales shortly before the release... ouch, lucky at the cinemas I look at it increased (not by enough but at least it did) Also I saw the movie yesterday evening (paid €8,50) and the screening was half full (saw it on the 2nd biggest screen at the same time at the biggest screen there was a showing too) so good but not enough to be on par with TLJ. 20 minutes ago, Bart Allen said: Well true true, but I feel the nigh-unanimously mixed reception for this film is an important variable ~ I think the same. Still hoping for a slight surprise Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bart Allen Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 57 minutes ago, Taruseth said: I think that TROS probably only will win (opening das & weekend) and in Germany and Scandinavia. Netherlands etc. most likely will be a close call. Yeah, you may be right - this is exciting haha ~ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 Thursday numbers: TROS: 242k (€2.83M) Frozen II: 36.5k (€280k) (+12%) Jumanji: 31.5k (€275k) (-12.5k) Geheimnis: 15.5k (€130k) (+3.3%) Last Christmas: 10k (€80k) (nc) No Wednesday numbers yet. Rogue one had a Thursday of 220k. 4 2 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bart Allen Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, Taruseth said: Thursday numbers: TROS: 242k (€2.83M) Frozen II: 36.5k (€280k) (+12%) Jumanji: 31.5k (€275k) (-12.5k) Geheimnis: 15.5k (€130k) (+3.3%) Last Christmas: 10k (€80k) (nc) No Wednesday numbers yet. Rogue one had a Thursday of 220k. Did that include previews? And TROS opened on Wedensday right? ~ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 22 minutes ago, Bart Allen said: Did that include previews? And TROS opened on Wedensday right? ~ Yes it opened on Wed so Thu is deflated. 25 minutes ago, Taruseth said: Thursday numbers: TROS: 242k (€2.83M) Frozen II: 36.5k (€280k) (+12%) Jumanji: 31.5k (€275k) (-12.5k) Geheimnis: 15.5k (€130k) (+3.3%) Last Christmas: 10k (€80k) (nc) No Wednesday numbers yet. Rogue one had a Thursday of 220k. That's actually better than I thought for Thursday. RO IM would result in 1,1M 4-day (and with a probable 300k+ OD in 1,4M+ 5-day). As this one opened one day earlier it should be better than that... But those other numbers are awesome! It seems only Hamburg was in holiday yesterday and today yet so the numbers shouldn't be inflated, at least too much. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bart Allen Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Aristis said: Yes it opened on Wed so Thu is deflated. That's actually better than I thought for Thursday. RO IM would result in 1,1M 4-day (and with a probable 300k+ OD in 1,4M+ 5-day). As this one opened one day earlier it should be better than that... But those other numbers are awesome! It seems only Hamburg was in holiday yesterday and today yet so the numbers shouldn't be inflated, at least too much. Wow I see - I like comparing this film with Joker, as Joker was the biggest surprise of the year in terms of success. Joker had an opening-day of 140k (€1,3M) and 100k in Wednesday previews ~ Also, Joker with 710k (800k including previews) was - at the time of release - the 3rd biggest OW of the year, which was equal to €7,4M or $8,1M - so I'm waiting to see how Rise of Skywalker's numbers do ~ Edited December 20, 2019 by Bart Allen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 (edited) 1st Trend: #1 TROS 1,38M (4-day), 1,7M (5day) - MarkG thinks it could go higher than that (he says it could be as high as 2,2M 5-day) but until tomorow this lower estimate seems like the safer choice... #2 Frozen2 350k (-25%) 4,77M - so it might pass its predecessor this WE #3 Jumanji 250k (-35%/-38%) 735k #4 Geheimnis 110k (-24%) 4,34M #5 Last Christmas 70k (-5%) 780k Edited December 20, 2019 by Aristis 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 20, 2019 Author Share Posted December 20, 2019 (edited) A 4-day under 1,5mil is a bit disappointing but it's still a very strong opening. and 6mil total are possible. Last Christmas has crazy drops, real sleeper here. Edited December 20, 2019 by IndustriousAngel 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 2 hours ago, Aristis said: 1st Trend: #1 TROS 1,38M (4-day), 1,7M (5day) - MarkG thinks it could go higher than that (he says it could be as high as 2,2M 5-day) but until tomorow this lower estimate seems like the safer choice... #2 Frozen2 350k (-25%) 4,77M - so it might pass its predecessor this WE #3 Jumanji 250k (-35%/-38%) 735k #4 Geheimnis 110k (-24%) 4,34M #5 Last Christmas 70k (-5%) 780k I don't know why but I'd expect TROS to have a slightly lower weekend (more like 1.25M or so) even though I hope MarkG is correct and it ends up on the higher end. For me the big question regarding TROS is apart from this weekend, how the next 14 days will play out. Will it take advantage of Christmas? But Frozen 2 seems to be too harsch, don't know, I kinda hope it could get to around 400k this weekend. Because if this doesn't happen I think it will fall short of 6M - its after all still a rather christmassy movie and thus more dependent on it than other animation movies. Jumanji's drop is okay (to good) but I think it won't get past the first one (2017 one) Last Christmas really has great legs, but those will obviously cut short starting next weekend. Geheimnis looks more and more like it should be headed to north of 4.75M admissions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Taruseth said: I don't know why but I'd expect TROS to have a slightly lower weekend (more like 1.25M or so) even though I hope MarkG is correct and it ends up on the higher end. For me the big question regarding TROS is apart from this weekend, how the next 14 days will play out. Will it take advantage of Christmas? But Frozen 2 seems to be too harsch, don't know, I kinda hope it could get to around 400k this weekend. Because if this doesn't happen I think it will fall short of 6M - its after all still a rather christmassy movie and thus more dependent on it than other animation movies. Yeah, SW9 seems extremely optimistic (especially the upper range). I trust in his knowledge though that it's at least possible. As for F2, I would expect it to increase with the 2nd Trend, too. Still, I think 350k would be enough to secure 6M+. It'd be just 400k behind Minions at the same point that got to 6,95M and has christmas holiday beginning now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 7.2n usd So far for TROS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 Mark is a SW loonie and so he could be optimistic but he is also following BO for more than 4 decades and so I wont question him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, John Marston said: 7.2n usd So far for TROS ATP is really high - 550k or so on Wednesday and Thursday - in other words pretty awful - and also the reason why it won't get above 2M on the five day, for that to happen it would suddenly need to perform like TFA and that won't happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poseidon Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 9 hours ago, Aristis said: Yes it opened on Wed so Thu is deflated. That's actually better than I thought for Thursday. RO IM would result in 1,1M 4-day (and with a probable 300k+ OD in 1,4M+ 5-day). As this one opened one day earlier it should be better than that... But those other numbers are awesome! It seems only Hamburg was in holiday yesterday and today yet so the numbers shouldn't be inflated, at least too much. A lot of schools in Baden Württemberg are on holidays today, so thursday was like a friday here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 So 6 millions admissions for frozen 2 is lock right now ? can it surpass maybe 6,5 or maybe 7 millions admissions like minions did ? With good audience receptions for SW9, can we expect better legs than SW8 and could it surpass SW8 in terms of admissions and maybe be at the top of 2019 german box office ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...