Weekend Thread (6/24-26) | Actuals: Elvis 31.2, TGM 29.6, JWD 26.7, Black Phone 23.6, Lightyear 18.1

[grim22]

3 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

rip Butler's Oscar chances

[Hilpkioy]

3 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

So, would a $23 million OW for Black Phone be good?

I just hope horror movies continue to have a presence theatrically.

 

It's already made it's budget back and probably 2x+ it's budget worldwide. I'm sure it will do what horror movies usually do and make a bunch of money from LATAM and South East Asia. 

Edited June 26, 2022 by Hilpkioy

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

$12m TG2 (~30.5)

$10.7m JWD (~26.5)

$10m Elvis (~31? 32?)

$7.2m BP (~23) 

$7m LY (~18)

 

 

[GipJo]

I don't think he has an Oscars chance anyway, not even a nom. By playing it this early into 2022, the studio would be stupid if they want to campaign him for Oscars. It will be a great addition in his portfolio for his future project.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 minute ago, motionpic05 said:

So, would a $23 million OW for Black Phone be good?

I just hope horror movies continue to have a presence theatrically.

 

It's not an amazing breakout, just a solid Blumhouse play which is fine. Higher than Ma, at least. Only cost 18m. Should go after 60million which is above other Blumhouse films like Happy Death Day, Insidious and around Purge and The Visit range. (Invisible Man was cut short because COVID) which makes it their 4th or so highest non-sequel/remake grosser behind Get Out (175.8m), Split (138), Paranormal Activity (107).

[EmpireCity]

1 minute ago, BruiseCruise said:

Only a 24% drop from last saturday for TG2, at this point i feel confident seeing its final total > 650m

 

TGM will be at $522m or so after Sunday.  It will be at $540m going into next weekend.  I would guess it is at least $570m by the end of 4th of July and about $580 going into Thor weekend.  

 

Should pass $600m by July 10th or so.  

 

I am pretty confident it has a really good shot at $700m+.  It will absolutely be on screen and putting up solid numbers going into mid-September.  

[Jiffy]

Has there been any summer film that was #1 in its fifth weekend since The Sixth Sense?

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Just now, EmpireCity said:

 

TGM will be at $522m or so after Sunday.  It will be at $540m going into next weekend.  I would guess it is at least $570m by the end of 4th of July and about $580 going into Thor weekend.  

 

Should pass $600m by July 10th or so.  

 

I am pretty confident it has a really good shot at $700m+.  It will absolutely be on screen and putting up solid numbers going into mid-September.  

Why do you think Elvis is coming in below early expectations/tracking which indicated possibly mid/high 30s? Do you think it will hold well?

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

 

TGM will be at $522m or so after Sunday.  It will be at $540m going into next weekend.  I would guess it is at least $570m by the end of 4th of July and about $580 going into Thor weekend.  

 

Should pass $600m by July 10th or so.  

 

I am pretty confident it has a really good shot at $700m+.  It will absolutely be on screen and putting up solid numbers going into mid-September.  

 

gimme a 3D re-release in february after avatar 2 re-popularizes the format

[Jiffy]

I guess it'd have been better news for the industry if Elvis opened closer to $40m but still an encouraging weekend on the whole. LY is just a total disaster, though. Still peeved it ruined our chance at five $20m films.

[EmpireCity]

In good fun (but pretty damn serious), I'm on the verge of declaring $700m+ a lock for TG2.

[ringedmortality]

Just now, EmpireCity said:

In good fun (but pretty damn serious), I'm on the verge of declaring $700m+ a lock for TG2.

 

What do you mean by locked?

[interiorgatordecorator]

Just now, EmpireCity said:

a lock 

 

!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

Has there been any summer film that was #1 in its fifth weekend since The Sixth Sense?

Guardians of the galaxy topped its 5th and 6th weekends. 

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

In good fun (but pretty damn serious), I'm on the verge of declaring $700m+ a lock for TG2.

[EmpireCity]

3 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Why do you think Elvis is coming in below early expectations/tracking which indicated possibly mid/high 30s? Do you think it will hold well?

 

I think the 2nd trailer didn't do it any favors and they should have never released that one in favor of the one they released earlier this week.  The run time and Baz's style are also challengs with the demographics that came in.  I also think that a slight impact of politics this week kept women (the core audience per polling) occupied.  

 

With that said, it still put up a good and ecouraging number given all factors and should play strong for another month.  

[motionpic05]

Even though Black Phone's performance is solid, it does seem like horror isn't as strong as it used to be 

From 2016 and forward, it seemed like everything broke out (except for a few). 

 

Now, It seems like everything underperforms (except for a few)

Jason Blum made a good point. The future of original horror IP is uncertain. 

 

[ringedmortality]

1 minute ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Guardians of the galaxy topped its 5th and 6th weekends. 

2014 was an interesting box office year. Only two movies opened to 100 million. Only one movie made a billion dollars. Highest grossing domestic film was a Clint Eastwood drama (technically). Crazy times.

[EmpireCity]

3 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

What do you mean by locked?

 

Meaning if I was betting on it, I would put a large bet that it will hit $700m+.  It will be at $600m on July 10th.  It needs $100m (obviously) from there to the end of its run.  I see nothing that takes it off screen at any mega-plex and even most 9 or 10 screen theaters until after Labor Day.  

[Cheddar Please]

11 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

TGM will be at $522m or so after Sunday.  It will be at $540m going into next weekend.  I would guess it is at least $570m by the end of 4th of July and about $580 going into Thor weekend.  

 

Should pass $600m by July 10th or so.  

 

I am pretty confident it has a really good shot at $700m+.  It will absolutely be on screen and putting up solid numbers going into mid-September.  

Someone should make a club about this lol, I'd be the first to be IN