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Eric is Quiet

THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER WEEKEND THREAD | The hammer swings down with 144.2 DOM, 302 WW, the 3rd-biggest 2022 opening | Minions 46.1, TGM 15.5, Elvis 11.2, JWD 8.6

By Eric is Quiet, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by ZeeSoh,

Moderation: While topics like overworked VFX employees, economy and recession, labour market, etc are important topics worth discussing, this thread may not be the best avenue to do so.   Let’s keep discussions here on topic about this weekend’s box office. We do generally allow off topic discussions in these thread but seldom does it devolve into such incessant and toxic arguments. So for now just avoid the above mentioned topics.    If people wish to discuss the topics I mentione

Warnings

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PlatnumRoyce Box Office Gold

PlatnumRoyce

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, superduperm said:

Does anyone know what the average 2022 ticket price is? Curious to make adjusted for inflation comparisons since the new Box Office Mojo is way behind on providing that information.

 

2021 as well.

tl;dr So I've been using 11.25  but I think $11.00 is the best rule of thumb answer.

 

Comscore claims that 2021's ATP was 10.17 (someone on reddit found it in AMC's 2021 report). EntTelligence (featured on Deadline) said Year over year ticket prices increased 7.5% as of memorial day which would imply a $10.93. ATP. 

I know someone compared their personal movie theater's ATP relative to NATO yearly averages and, based on that, estimated Q1 2022 price was between 11 and 11.50. 

 

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Joyous Legion Global Phenomenon

Joyous Legion

Posted
Posted
Just now, PlatnumRoyce said:

Yeah, but Food/fuel inflation is playing a decent role recently which should mess up quick comps. 

Food and energy were a big chunk of 2021 inflation too, included the 2017:2021 CPI vs atp to show that they tracked closely so far despite that. I would be careful about using 7.5 y/y MDW applied to 2021 full year since that window is mostly 2H 2021 and 1H 2022 which look to be hotter than 2H 2022.   
 

Nonetheless, my ballpark answer of 10.88 is quite close to your 11. I think both point values would be within an well constructed 50% confidence.

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Joyous Legion Global Phenomenon

Joyous Legion

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

C'mon lol. There's literally no movies coming out next weekend 

Crawdads and paws of fury will make like 30M, vs the openers of Firestarter and Family camp pulling 5M in DS2’s 2nd weekend… where it dropped 67% in spring with better wom and a less frontloaded Oweekend.

Edited by Legion and Thunder
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Ethan Hunt Global Phenomenon

Ethan Hunt

Posted
Posted

 

Just now, Legion and Thunder said:

Crawdads and paws of fury will make like 30M, vs the openers of Firestarter and Family camp pulling 5M in DS2’s 2nd weekend… where it dropped 67% in spring with better wom and a less frontloaded weekend.

Better Wom is an assumption 

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PlatnumRoyce Box Office Gold

PlatnumRoyce

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Food and energy were a big chunk of 2021 inflation too, included the 2017:2021 CPI vs atp to show that they tracked closely so far despite that. I would be careful about using 7.5 y/y MDW applied to 2021 full year since that window is mostly 2H 2021 and 1H 2022 which look to be hotter than 2H 2022.   
 

Nonetheless, my ballpark answer of 10.88 is quite close to your 11. I think both point values would be within an well constructed 50% confidence.

Definitely. I'm mostly thinking out loud here especially because my early 2022 estimates clearly overestimated inflation (especially w/r/t how rises in surcharge ticketing would change things). I do like how multiple different angles here are basically agreeing on 20% inflation since 2019's average +/- 1 percentage point. 

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