Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread

[upriser7]

13 minutes ago, Hananova said:

It's because most of the movie strongest run part is over. 

 

The movie box office is also slowing down in strong markets like India and China. For the important markets, only France and Korea are still doing great (the movie is on a flat line in these countries since 2 weeks lol), but it will be the end of holidays in France on tuesday 12/27, so it will also lose a lot after that.

By your own calculus, it would need to do $550M in 11 days, which would be a lot. 

huh ? Who said it's slowing down in India ? It's holding extremely strong so far in 2nd week which is very unusual for a Hollywood big movie in India......it's 2nd week gross is going to be almost 75% higher than previous 2nd week record among Hollywood movies. It's 3rd week gross is going to be higher than 2nd week gross of every other Hollywood movie.

Edited December 30, 2022 by upriser7

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

8 minutes ago, Hananova said:

It's because most of the movie strongest run part is over. 

For US/Can for exemple, it's strongest weekend was the first, and it did have a nice drop for the christmas weekend + boxing day. These are basically the strongest weekends. Then you have to remember that it's holiday time also, so weekdays are also very strong. Friday 12/30 should be strong, saturday will otherwise do less than friday because it's on new year eve. Then it's the end of holidays, and weekdays will drop off massively. It will be the same in the rest of western World.

The movie box office is also slowing down in strong markets like India and China. For the important markets, only France and Korea are still doing great (the movie is on a flat line in these countries since 2 weeks lol), but it will be the end of holidays in France on tuesday 12/27, so it will also lose a lot after that.

By your own calculus, it would need to do $550M in 11 days, which would be a lot. 

 

Should be at ~$1.39-1.41B through Jan 2. DOM Jan 3-8 does $40-45M, OS $120-140M. Puts it at $1.55-1.6B through the 8th. I'd say $1.9B is the minimum but my expectation is $1.98-2.05B

 

[charlie Jatinder]

$2b is a lock. $2.2B seems doable with no China extension 

[interiorgatordecorator]

is nwh a good comparasion for avatar 2 january holds around the world?

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

36 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

$2b is a lock. $2.2B seems doable with no China extension 

 

I''m guessing you get your 2.2B from something like 650 DOM + 225 China + 1325 OS?

[THUNDER BIRD]

8 hours ago, Hananova said:

What an absolute asinine and foolish thing to say. The og Star Wars was the most dominant domestic box office run of all times.

It was unbeatable, litteraly top 1 for near 1 year. The sequel did not as great, because it was impossible ( and is now even more impossible ). Adjusted for inflation, the first SW did $1.3 billion at the box office and near 130millions tickets sold. TESB would be at $740million and near 80 millions sold tickets.

 

On the other hand, with today's inflation and the fact that single tickets are ridiculously overpriced by comparison when it come to A2, it will not even bring half the people that TESB did in theaters, while the US/CAN population grew from 251,5 millions habitants in 1980 to 370 in 2021. Hell, if A2 does $650millions, it would still have sold less tickets than ROGUE ONE !

 

Avatar will never be as great, and will never feel as big as Star Wars, simply because less people saw it.

It's quite litteraly, simple as that. Also the fact that nobody talk about Avatar movies 6 months after their releases, that's why people say it has no cultural impact.

Scorsese warned us about it, he said that Marvel movies are theme park rides and not cinema, and I say that it's even more true for franchises like Avatar. These are movies with no flair and pathetic scenarios, who only have visuals for themselves. Except that great cinema is far more than special effects. 

Dude the world is bigger than America, no one cares about Star Wars in more then half the world.

 

And in some countries outside America where Star Wars is still popular, Avatar will beat it eventually.

 

And you can have you cultural impact, we will have our 2 billion box office gross.

Edited December 30, 2022 by THUNDER BIRD

[LPLC]

10 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

is nwh a good comparasion for avatar 2 january holds around the world?

I think yes, 2 big movie around $2B with normally good late legs and no competition (however NWH don't have china and still have covid issues in some countries last year)

[Shanks]

8 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

is nwh a good comparasion for avatar 2 january holds around the world?

 

I am not even sure why they are comparing NWH's OS to Avatar's OS, when they didn't open in same Countries at same time. China is there with massive numbers compared to Russia for Avatar 2 against NWH. So, Numbers would be in ballpark difference of 100m in OS.  Also, it doesn't help that some Countries were closed off and some started their run in January for NWH.

 

Daily Comparison are done to know trajectory to where it will end-up with and not because you wanna compare daily numbers. Just because No Way Home/IW or Titanic is your Target, it doesn't mean they are good comparison. 

 

No Way Home opened in some Nordic Countries in January itself. It also got completely shut-down in some countries. Comparison can be done Country by Country basis but not as a whole. Also small countries even if they are making 300k-500k daily, if they are 40+ in numbers they make a good chunk of total.

[LPLC]

4 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

 

I''m guessing you get your 2.2B from something like 650 DOM + 225 China + 1325 OS?

I just had a vision, hold my words :

 

$570M DOM

$1,560B INT

$2,13B WW

[Sophia Jane]

2 hours ago, Hananova said:

It's because most of the movie strongest run part is over. 

For US/Can for exemple, it's strongest weekend was the first, and it did have a nice drop for the christmas weekend + boxing day. These are basically the strongest weekends. Then you have to remember that it's holiday time also, so weekdays are also very strong. Friday 12/30 should be strong, saturday will otherwise do less than friday because it's on new year eve. Then it's the end of holidays, and weekdays will drop off massively. It will be the same in the rest of western World.

The movie box office is also slowing down in strong markets like India and China. For the important markets, only France and Korea are still doing great (the movie is on a flat line in these countries since 2 weeks lol), but it will be the end of holidays in France on tuesday 12/27, so it will also lose a lot after that.

By your own calculus, it would need to do $550M in 11 days, which would be a lot. 

Avatar Increase in China from last weekend

[Sophia Jane]

Avatar beating NWH overall gross in Italy by Thursday,best grossing film of covid era

[Sheldon Cr]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

$2b is a lock. $2.2B seems doable with no China extension 

Excellent  charlie!!

 

......Meanwhile a man is calculating his almost 10% of all things Avatar money woes. 😱😱🦝😄

 

 

 

Edited December 30, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Editing post

[Sheldon Cr]

30 minutes ago, Bruce said:

Avatar beating NWH overall gross in Italy by Thursday,best grossing film of covid era

Outstanding!

What is it at now brother Bruce. Loving the OS numbers. Wow Titanic could fall here Ww

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

 

I''m guessing you get your 2.2B from something like 650 DOM + 200 China + 1350 OS?

 

[Sheldon Cr]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Hopefully Charlie. Sorry you didn't enjoy the movie as much as the rest of us brother, but hopefully you'll enjoy tracking suprises domestically and OS. I'm hoping we get past 700m dom. Even though nothing wrong with 650 or better 🦝👍

[Sheldon Cr]

2 hours ago, Bruce said:

Avatar Increase in China from last weekend

🦝😱😱

. Over 200m in china very likely it seems

 

 

"WE'LL  TEACH THEM OUR WAYS!"

[Mr Roark]

As long as it hits $2.07B I’m gonna be happy.

[MG10]

5 hours ago, Bruce said:

Avatar beating NWH overall gross in Italy by Thursday,best grossing film of covid era

 

And it did it in just 17 days, it passed 25 million euros like it was nothing

[Sophia Jane]

DOM Thurs:19.75m

OS Thurs:47m

Overall:66.75m

WW total:1167m

Incredible hold

some prediction:

DOM Third weekend:58m

OS Third weekend:170m

WW Third weekend:228m

WW after 3rd weekend:1395m+
potential to do 1400m

comps with NWH after third weekend:1367m+
So is already locked for 2B

Target is besting Titanic

Edited December 30, 2022 by Bruce

[Gavin Feng]

$1,385M+ through SUN