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Issac Newton

Weekend - 08/05-08/07 | Actuals: Bullet Train 30, Super Pets 11, Nope 8.5, Thor 7.7, Minions 7.1 | TGM sinks Titanic! 7th-biggest film DOM | Bodies Bodies Bodies earns 37.8K PTA

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4 hours ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

 

That rule of thumb doesn't really work when the marketing budget dwarves the production budget.  For example, Peele's US cost $20m production, then $75m marketing. Grossing $50-60m would have made that a bomb.

That's not a very common marketing: budget ratio though. In the case of Us, they definitely knew it was going to be much bigger than a typical 20m budgeted film so probably felt they could spend a lot on marketing given Peele's previous film. 

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7 hours ago, grim22 said:

Variety has really been going hard defending Nope

 

 

 

 

Yep. if you have to bring up some minor milestones and records (eg. best boxoffice for the original movie since pandemic) that means you know it isn't an undisputed success. Once you start explaning/excusing/justifying, you admit there's a problem. No one says "TGM is a remarkable achievement for a sequel to a 40 years old movie'. Everyone says "TGM is a remarkable achievement/boxoffice phenomenon". It doesn't need additional lines to explain its success. 

 

Same goes for "X would have made over 1B with China,etc" which doesn't work because there are movies that did just that without those markets because remaining markets went crazy for those movies and didn't for those other movies that needed China.etc to inflate their boxoffice. 

 

The more they defend the movie the more people notice something isn't right. It has the opposite effect. 

Edited by Valonqar
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2 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

i guess he doesn't count because it's all supporting roles and he's more of a character actor but willem dafoe has done this too.

So for the record

 

DAFOE:

80s: Platoon

90s: Clear and Present Danger

00s: (Spiderman 2 and 3 is a cameo). Spiderman. Finding Nemo (animated). The Aviator

10s: (Justice League is a cameo). Fault in Our Stars. Finding Dory (animated). Murder on the Orient Express. Aquaman

2020s: Spiderman: No Way Home

 

CRUISE:

80s: Top Gun. Rain Man. 

90s: Few Good Men. The Firm. Interview With A Vampire. Mission Impossible. Jerry Maguire. 

00s: (Goldmember is a cameo). Mission 2. Vanilla Sky. Minority Report. The Last Samurai. Collateral. War of the Worlds. Mission Impossible 3. Tropic Thunder. 

10s: Mission Impossible 4. Edge of Tomorrow. Mission Impossible 5. Mission Impossible 6. 

2020s: Top Gun 2

 

HANKS:

80s: Big. 

90s: League of Their Own. Sleepless in Seattle. Forrest Gump. Apollo 13. Toy Story (animated). Saving Private Ryan. You've Got Mail. Toy Story 2 (animated). The Green Mile. 

00s: Cast Away. Road To Perdition. Catch Me If You Can. The Polar Express (animated). The Da Vinci Code. The Simpsons Movie (animated/cameo-ish). Angels and Demons. 

10s: Toy Story 4 (animated). Captain Phillips. Sully. Toy Story 4 (animated)

2020s: Elvis. 

 

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Too bad WSS flopped because Spielberg would have had a 2020s 100m hit. I don't think Fabelmans will get there

 

70s: Jaws. Close Encounters.

80s: Raiders. ET. Temple of Doom. Last Crusade.

90s: Hook. Jurassic Park. The Lost World. Saving Private Ryan.

00s: Minority Report. Catch Me If You Can. War of the Worlds. Crystal Skull. 

10s: Lincoln. Ready Player One.  

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Just now, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Too bad WSS flopped because Spielberg would have had a 2020s 100m hit. I don't think Fabelmans will get there

 

70s: Jaws. Close Encounters.

80s: Raiders. ET. Temple of Doom. Last Crusade.

90s: Hook. Jurassic Park. The Lost World. Saving Private Ryan.

00s: Minority Report. Catch Me If You Can. War of the Worlds. Crystal Skull. 

10s: Lincoln. Ready Player One.  

We're only three years into the decade. He has time.

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Going off Deadline data, which is whatever, but better than general rules of thumb, I am seeing right around 230-260 million worldwide to start making a profit. Let's say it runs out at 120m domestic. It needs another 120 million in the international markets to hit the mark. No idea how it will play outside the States. But I think best case is break even, but potential for not making it. All in all, it aint a bomb and it aint a hit. It's a push. That actually fills like a win though with this marketplace and post covid. Original film at this level breaking even is good news for Peele and movie theaters.

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After 10 weekends in theaters, “Top Gun: Maverick” still has not dropped out of the top 5 of the North American box office charts. While it may finally drop out this weekend with the release of the Sony action film “Bullet Train,” it may get a small boost on August 12 when the film gets an Imax rerelease. When it does, the film will see its Imax grosses pass $100 million, as it currently stands at just over $98 million from the format.

‘Top Gun: Maverick’ Becomes 4DX/ScreenX’s First Film to Gross $50 Million (thewrap.com)

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24 minutes ago, filmlover said:

With a re-release on IMAX, TGM could be #2 next weekend. EC said last week on Twitter that it will include bonus scenes "and more". I wonder what the 'and more' is? 

 

Hell.. with TGM at around $7m this weekend and having miniscule drops as it is, IMAX will provide a nice boost, bonus content will provide a nice boost... it's possible that it could be #1 again.

 

TGM could/should hit $700m before Labor Day.

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3 minutes ago, krla said:

With a re-release on IMAX, TGM could be #2 next weekend. EC said last week on Twitter that it will include bonus scenes "and more". I wonder what the 'and more' is? 

 

Hell.. with TGM at around $7m this weekend and having miniscule drops as it is, IMAX will provide a nice boost, bonus content will provide a nice boost... it's possible that it could be #1 again.

 

TGM could/should hit $700m before Labor Day.

ET is playing at IMAX this weekend. If Top Gun gets a re-release this weekend for whatever reason, it would have to split showtimes (so the puny 1st showing of day and final late night showing)

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