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Eric Quinn

A2 WEEKEND THREAD | 134.1M DOM OW | Thurs 17m / Fri 36m / Sat 45m / Sun 36m

By Eric Quinn, in Numbers and Data

How old were you when Avatar (2009) first came out?  

176 members have voted

  1. 1. How old were you when Avatar (2009) first came out?


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Posted by Water Bottle,

THE AVATAR SALE IS NOW LIVE!   $10 off the Gold Account for one month for $15! Or get the whole year $65 off for a total of $100!   Get your likes for the event (or bomb but hopefully event) of the year! It's the Way of Water and as Water Bottle, I hope the water flows! To us! In the form of your donations!   Okay I'll stop bring cringe.   If you want a monthly account go here: https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/subscriptions/ If you want an
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Posted by Cap,

I know I’m going to get shit for this, but eh, LFG.   We are a box office forum. We talk about Avatar excessively because it’s the biggest box office film of all time.  Most of the other places on The Internet TM do not. For the General Audience, this is a sequel to that cool movie from 12 years ago. To Nerd Culture, it’s the sequel to the movie they love to mock and meme. And James Cameron did most of his best work in the 1980’s, which is like asking Gen Z to marathon TCM. There isn’t
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Posted by Porthos,

I know we're in the middle of Oscar Talk, but since I just caught up with the thread, I want to swing back to something that was discussed about an hour ago.       As a not quite charter member of Wait For Boxing Day To Really Say, but a strong subscriber to the newsletter, I understand this comment.   I really do.   At the same the world is a *LOT* different now than it was in 2009.   We've all listed the reasons, but one major thing that isn'
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Posted by charlie Jatinder,

₹364 crores.
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Posted by M37,

At 173 pages, I'm signing off of this crazy weekend thread   But I wish all of you well on your upcoming journey (no matter how far down the path each of you may be)   Pls don't ban me @XXR 5x OW or Bust

Future BOFFY Winner

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

just want to say that i greatly appreciate any and all posts pre-emptively declaring the movie a flop so i can screenshot all of them and revisit them in 3-4 weeks.

 

Flop is under 2x WW - even at $400M production budget, it won't be a flop.

 

At best, a disappointment (under 2.5x production budget), but even then, that's unlikely.

 

It's most likely to fall in the "good to great" category (somewhere between 2.5-4x, since I combined 2 categories:)...

 

But some wanted something even better than that...

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Cooper Legion Global Phenomenon

Cooper Legion

Posted
Posted

Uhh... there is definitely no hard and fast 2x production budget rule to avoid being a flop. You can still easily loseo money at that point depending on backends, ancillary magnitude, marketing budget, geographical breakdown of gross, etc 

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adaros Indie Sensation

adaros

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

And speaking of a movie that had gotten out of the flop category, it looks like Black Adam will climb over $390M WW (2x its production budget of $195M) this weekend, and officially make it to "disappointment" stage, where it will go no farther...

I would count 2.5x multiplier at least for big budget movies, 2x is low

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ZattMurdock Global Phenomenon

ZattMurdock

Posted
Posted
Just now, TwoMisfits said:

 

Flop is under 2x WW - even at $400M production budget, it won't be a flop.

 

At best, a disappointment (under 2.5x production budget), but even then, that's unlikely.

 

It's most likely to fall in the "good to great" category (somewhere between 2.5-4x, since I combined 2 categories:)...

 

But some wanted something even better than that...

Avatar 2 won’t be a flop. But Cameron worst enemy isn’t Feige. It’s Cameron himself. I’m thankful for the advancements in technology that he did, I welcome future Avatar sequels, but maybe it’s time for him to direct new stuff and let other people play with his sandbox. I think reinventing himself and pushing boundaries is what he has been doing since the 80s, but maybe it’s time to trying something new.
 

My heart says a return to Terminator but maybe that’s the wrong answer, maybe what we need from Cameron is just a new brand new film. Nothing is wrong with Avatar 2, it will definitely break $1B, maybe not be as profitable as it needs to be, but that doesn’t mean it’s a flop. Avatar will be fine. Disney will be fine. Cameron will be fine. It’s happening exactly like a lot of us have been predicting for years now. It will be a success, but also maybe hopefully the wake up call that Cameron needs to let others play with his sandbox and stop playing George Lucas with his franchise, it will do good for him and Avatar, probably. It’s a visual spectacle, I just wish he would stop pushing 3D so hard.

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, adaros said:

I would count 2.5x multiplier at least for big budget movies, 2x is low

 

Nah, 2x is disappointment, 2.5x is good.

 

Thus, when something like Strange World comes along, which won't even make 1x production budget, you can honestly say utter epic bomb...b/c bomb is under 1.5x, and flop is under 2x:)...

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Cooper Legion Global Phenomenon

Cooper Legion

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, adaros said:

I would count 2.5x multiplier at least for big budget movies, 2x is low

Sebody on Reddit did a good analysis of this recently and I think it even ended up like 2.6 2.7 on avg for big budget movies.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, Korra Legion said:

Why are you Apollo meming on a post where you predict it to make a lot more than now looks likely 😛

 

Me trying to double reverse jinx something off a possible OW total?  Couldn't be me! 

 

(*cough* :ph34r:)

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
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4 minutes ago, Korra Legion said:

Uhh... there is definitely no hard and fast 2x production budget rule to avoid being a flop. You can still easily loseo money at that point depending on backends, ancillary magnitude, marketing budget, geographical breakdown of gross, etc 

 

Of course you can - thus, why it's disappointing and not good...maybe you make a little, maybe you lose a little, so it's not good, but it's not a flop, either...

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Cooper Legion Global Phenomenon

Cooper Legion

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Of course you can - thus, why it's disappointing and not good...maybe you make a little, maybe you lose a little, so it's not good, but it's not a flop, either...

.

It can still be a flop quite easily with like 2.05x! You seem to have some totally arbitrary thresholds here.

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cookie Global Phenomenon

cookie

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Korra Legion said:

Sebody on Reddit did a good analysis of this recently and I think it even ended up like 2.6 2.7 on avg for big budget movies.

And even then, Transformers 5 grossed 2.8x its budget and Paramount still lost $100m+ on it, so some outliers could go even further.

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Cap Summer Tentpole

Cap

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Posted

Speaking of returning to Terminator; I was going to watch T2 today but Mom figured out that we have HBO Max at the house, and now we’re watching White Lotus. God a shit is boring.

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted
Just now, Korra Legion said:

... No. You can't. It can still be a flop quite easily with like 2.05x!

 

And, if you're Disney getting 65% of revenues DOM and skipping China, you probably still make a decent amount at 2.05x...or you're a Chinese film getting 99% Chinese revenue and probably still losing a decent amount...

 

So, it's a rule of thumb...not an accountant's tool...

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JustLurking Box Office Gold

JustLurking

Posted
Posted
Just now, TwoMisfits said:

 

And, if you're Disney getting 65% of revenues DOM and skipping China, you probably still make a decent amount at 2.05x...or you're a Chinese film getting 99% Chinese revenue and probably still losing a decent amount...

 

So, it's a rule of thumb...not an accountant's tool...

There is no way you're breaking even at 2x since marketing budgets don't get rolled into the number. Black Adam breaking even off theatrical revenue just isn't a thing.

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