M37 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Nero said: Hmm.What was your OW predict? $132M? Officially yes, but that was partially dictated by the other guesses in the contest. Was more in the $132-137M range, an ~8x off a $16.5-$17M Thursday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menor the Destroyer Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 62,000,000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, M37 said: Was more in the $132-137M range, an ~8x off a $16.5-$17M Thursday Wow look at this chump, couldn’t even see the 7.9 coming 😛 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, Korra Legion said: Wow look at this chump, couldn’t even see the 7.9 coming 😛 I believe we both think the actual preview was a shade under 17, rounded up 😉 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menor the Destroyer Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said: 62,000,000 FWIW expecting weekdays to be fairly weak and make this look tough, and then expecting Friday bump to be significantly better than R1 to get it back on track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grebacio Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 71,015,898 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said: FWIW expecting weekdays to be fairly weak and make this look tough, and then expecting Friday bump to be significantly better than R1 to get it back on track. I’ll make a small wager on fri bump less than RO if you’re interested Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menor the Destroyer Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Korra Legion said: I’ll make a small wager on fri bump less than RO if you’re interested Nah, not quite that confident. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustLurking Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 isn't a strong fri bump (and even sat hold) going to be really tough if the storm in the south is as bad as people say. I went 61 but I'm thinking lower's probably more realistic. Like, if it goes low 60s with shit weather, that feels real strong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menor the Destroyer Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Actually forgot about the weather rip. Will have to revise that prediction down somewhat. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menor the Destroyer Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Forgot about the weather and neglected to input a lower Christmas day bump. With expectation of weak weekday trend, if weekend bump is also weather depressed I will go with: 48,640,000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustLurking Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 13 hours ago, JustLurking said: 61,326,485 I have no idea how bad this storm thing will be since I'm not in the US, but just going by what other peeps are saying about it, will take this down to 53,326,485 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deep Wang Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 24 minutes ago, JustLurking said: isn't a strong fri bump (and even sat hold) going to be really tough if the storm in the south is as bad as people say. I went 61 but I'm thinking lower's probably more realistic. Like, if it goes low 60s with shit weather, that feels real strong. I mentioned it briefly in the main thread, but R1 had an increase Wed>Thurs of 12%. Assuming Avatar does something similar, doesn't that also decrease the ceiling of Friday increase? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustLurking Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, Deep Wang said: I mentioned it briefly in the main thread, but R1 had an increase Wed>Thurs of 12%. Assuming Avatar does something similar, doesn't that also decrease the ceiling of Friday increase? Feels kiiiind of weird to quote my original post asking for explanations after I've already lowered it, but I'm not necessarily thinking about this one too much and calcing it, I'm just going gut feeling (or a number that I'd want without venturing into the delusional, so to speak). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menor the Destroyer Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Deep Wang said: I mentioned it briefly in the main thread, but R1 had an increase Wed>Thurs of 12%. Assuming Avatar does something similar, doesn't that also decrease the ceiling of Friday increase? Eh, in a sense yes, but since most are using RO dailies as the comp anyway, I don't think that should materially affect projections. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deep Wang Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, JustLurking said: Feels kiiiind of weird to quote my original post asking for explanations after I've already lowered it, but I'm not necessarily thinking about this one too much and calcing it, I'm just going gut feeling (or a number that I'd want without venturing into the delusional, so to speak). No, I'm just sincerely asking if an increase on Thursday would soften the increase on Friday 😅 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nero Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, M37 said: Officially yes, but that was partially dictated by the other guesses in the contest. Was more in the $132-137M range, an ~8x off a $16.5-$17M Thursday Hmm I'm going with $56M then 🙂 Edited December 20, 2022 by Nero Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchumacherFTW Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 $57,466,420 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 14 minutes ago, Nero said: Hmm I'm going with $56M then 🙂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 24 minutes ago, Deep Wang said: No, I'm just sincerely asking if an increase on Thursday would soften the increase on Friday 😅 Somewhat - a lot of people are going to have Friday off, so you get an increase on Thursday from evening show bump, but also a higher ceiling on Friday (kinda like Veteran’s day weekend). Given running time and resulting skew towards earlier times, would expect a smaller Thur bump but bigger Fri increase than RO (before applying weather related impacts) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
