Avatar: The Way of Water Second Weekend Guesspalooza! CLOSED!

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Menor Reborn said:

Forgot about the weather and neglected to input a lower Christmas day bump. With expectation of weak weekday trend, if weekend bump is also weather depressed I will go with:

 

48,640,000

 

 

 

Damn, you dropped almost $14M for weather...I mean, it's not affecting the West and East coasts (well, okay, not VA downward), and those were the best areas for OW, right.

 

I mean, if flyover country can't go, they weren't going anyway, were they?

Edited December 20, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[Lucas]

Like $16, I have decided I'm the only one seeing it this weekend and will fuck you up if you dare to show up.

[Nero]

39 minutes ago, M37 said:

[shachi86]

Going with $50.6m. Would've gone with $56.3m, but taking 10% off because of the weather.

[TwoMisfits]

So, all who are going under $50M, I've got to think the 3 day has $100M in it (30% off Spidey's equivalent total DOM weekend last year b/c Avatar ain't Spidey)...so how are you breaking that down with the openers?  I mean, of the holdovers from this weekend not named Avatar, only Wakanda and Violent Santa probably have a million or 2 in them, so are you really giving $48Mish split between Puss, Babylon, Whitney, and The Whale?  Or are you expecting a sub $100M Xmas weekend?

 

Edit to Add: Even with the Strange World disaster open and Wakanda in its 3rd weekend, the Thanksgiving 3 day did make it to $93M overall, and I gotta think that's the floor with a slightly better animated (in all ways) in play...

 

 

Edited December 20, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, all who are going under $50M, I've got to think the 3 day has $100M in it (30% off Spidey's equivalent total DOM weekend last year b/c Avatar ain't Spidey)...so how are you breaking that down with the openers?  I mean, of the holdovers from this weekend not named Avatar, only Wakanda and Violent Santa probably have a million or 2 in them, so are you really giving $48Mish split between Puss, Babylon, Whitney, and The Whale?  Or are you expecting a sub $100M Xmas weekend?

 

Edit to Add: Even with the Strange World disaster open and Wakanda in its 3rd weekend, the Thanksgiving 3 day did make it to $93M overall, and I gotta think that's the floor with a slightly better animated (in all ways) in play...

 

 

I don't think there's any specific number that needs to be hit. If there's not enough interest in the weekend's movies (or if weather is causing issues), then people just won't go. 

2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Damn, you dropped almost $14M for weather...I mean, it's not affecting the West and East coasts (well, okay, not VA downward), and those were the best areas for OW, right.

 

I mean, if flyover country can't go, they weren't going anyway, were they?

Dropped because of weather but also admittedly the 50s were a bit crowded. 

 

 

 

Edited December 20, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Reddroast]

Put me in at 56.5 million

[ZattMurdock]

34 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, all who are going under $50M, I've got to think the 3 day has $100M in it (30% off Spidey's equivalent total DOM weekend last year b/c Avatar ain't Spidey)...so how are you breaking that down with the openers?  I mean, of the holdovers from this weekend not named Avatar, only Wakanda and Violent Santa probably have a million or 2 in them, so are you really giving $48Mish split between Puss, Babylon, Whitney, and The Whale?  Or are you expecting a sub $100M Xmas weekend?

 

Edit to Add: Even with the Strange World disaster open and Wakanda in its 3rd weekend, the Thanksgiving 3 day did make it to $93M overall, and I gotta think that's the floor with a slightly better animated (in all ways) in play...

 

 

I’m considering this as the wildcard:

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2022/12/19/midwest-northeast-blizzard-arctic/

 

I went a bit below @grey ghost for thread purposes, but I think that if the storm is bad, ceiling would be low 50s.

 

 

[MattW]

58250250

[Verrows]

$54,826,933

[Cap]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, all who are going under $50M,...so how are you breaking that down with the openers? 

Nicely. 

[Brainbug]

49,969,991

[Cheddar Please]

So far this thread has just been a tale of diminishing returns predictions

[Legion Again]

53

[ZeeSoh]

Hmm I was gonna say 65m but damn my predictions seem way too high compared to others here. Are we really expecting this to fall around 60% and be more frontloaded than Rogue One? But then again I was too high in the OW competition too. But it would be disastrous for it to go below 60m and I will be shocked.

 

Edit: OK nevermind I checked the new about the weather and it seems this week weather will be pretty bad across major portions of the country. It seems worst affected will be the midwest starting from Wednesday to Thursday and even Friday. Great Lakes region is expected to get worse starting Wednesday night and strengthen over Thursday. Northeast will be affected late Thursday and Friday onwards. South should be affected but not as much as the above regions and it seems West coast should be overall OK. Gonna have to revise my predictions

[Nero]

Just now, ZeeSoh said:

Hmm I was gonna say 65m but damn my predictions seem way too high compared to others here. Are we really expecting this to fall around 60% and be more frontloaded than Rogue One? But then again I was too high in the OW competition too. But it would be disastrous for it to go below 60m and I will be shocked.

Since your OW prediction was almost 20 M higher you can lower 2nd weekend prediction by 10M. ~55M

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Hmm I was gonna say 65m but damn my predictions seem way too high compared to others here. Are we really expecting this to fall around 60% and be more frontloaded than Rogue One? But then again I was too high in the OW competition too. But it would be disastrous for it to go below 60m and I will be shocked.

 

Lets see how the numbers play out the rest of the week but yes I think there's a good shot that it comes in below $60M.

 

[Verrows]

4 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Hmm I was gonna say 65m but damn my predictions seem way too high compared to others here. Are we really expecting this to fall around 60% and be more frontloaded than Rogue One? But then again I was too high in the OW competition too. But it would be disastrous for it to go below 60m and I will be shocked.

 

Edit: OK nevermind I checked the new about the weather and it seems this week weather will be pretty bad across major portions of the country. It seems worst affected will be the midwest starting from Wednesday to Thursday and even Friday. Great Lakes region is expected to get worse starting Wednesday night and strengthen over Thursday. Northeast will be affected late Thursday and Friday onwards. South should be affected but not as much as the above regions and it seems West coast should be overall OK. Gonna have to revise my predictions

The weather, but to your question of if it's going to be more frontloaded than Rogue One, well... it dropped worse on Monday so it's already going that route. Not that one weekday means it WILL be more frontloaded, but you get my point. The under $60M predictions just make sense based on how it's going to far, though obviously it's very early.

[ZeeSoh]

6 minutes ago, Nero said:

Since your OW prediction was almost 20 M higher you can lower 2nd weekend prediction by 10M. ~55M

Yeah I checked the news and have edited my post. Will post new predictions soon. 

 

 

Btw my OW prediction was 13.5m higher NOT 20m. I will not stand this slander against my good reputation. 

 

Spoiler

PS: I realized as I was typing the above that my OW prediction was 23.5m higher and not 13.5m higher LMAO

 

 

[Reddroast]

6 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Hmm I was gonna say 65m but damn my predictions seem way too high compared to others here. Are we really expecting this to fall around 60% and be more frontloaded than Rogue One? But then again I was too high in the OW competition too. But it would be disastrous for it to go below 60m and I will be shocked.

 

Edit: OK nevermind I checked the new about the weather and it seems this week weather will be pretty bad across major portions of the country. It seems worst affected will be the midwest starting from Wednesday to Thursday and even Friday. Great Lakes region is expected to get worse starting Wednesday night and strengthen over Thursday. Northeast will be affected late Thursday and Friday onwards. South should be affected but not as much as the above regions and it seems West coast should be overall OK. Gonna have to revise my predictions

Atlanta is supposed to get rain on Thursday and -19C with the wind chill on Friday. The south has  issue with when a light dusting of snow appears. I'd hate to see all that ice affects the roads