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[Verrows]

3 minutes ago, XXR 4x OW or Bust said:

 

If it increases at all it's a win. 

Yeah I should emphasize that I HOPE for the bump. In terms of likely target, then flat. It's just that, that would be a little disappointing given the Monday drop was a little more harsh than you'd like.

Edited December 20, 2022 by Verrows

[redfirebird2008]

1 hour ago, Cap said:

 

There is a long history of movies being like 1hr 40 to 2hrs. 
 

Singin in The Rain is absolute perfection. It clocks in at 1hr42mins. 

 

 

 

Same runtime for Casablanca.

 

In terms of action movies, I always felt the Burton Batman movies had a pretty good sweet spot with runtimes at 2 hours and 6 minutes. Excluding the intro credits & ending credits, you are right at 2 hours on those movies. 

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, jedijake said:

All of this makes me wonder how on Earth NWH and TGM did as well as they did.

 

Same reason any movie does well, interest and WOM. 

 

[Ryan Reynolds]

5 minutes ago, jedijake said:

All of this makes me wonder how on Earth NWH and TGM did as well as they did.

TGM would have made 100m total without Tom Cruise 

[Verrows]

4 minutes ago, jedijake said:

All of this makes me wonder how on Earth NWH and TGM did as well as they did.

Concept and/or quality. I find concept sells more than anything in the current era of box office. Concept applied to NWH. Top Gun is more of a total mystery and surprise, but quality definitely applies to that one. When audiences watch a trailer or featurettes and see the quality, they'll make it a priority.

 

Though Way of Water has the quality going for it so I don't know. Clearly the concept isn't quite interesting enough to reach NWH/Too Gun levels.

[wildphantom]

There’s some real underestimation as to how hungover people were after the WC final to think about seeing the movie on Monday. 
 

[Cheddar Please]

https://variety.com/2022/film/box-office/avatar-2-box-office-christmas-babylon-projections-1235466277/

 

Quote

Over the extended weekend, “Avatar: The Way of Water” is projected to decline 40% to 50% from its debut, putting ticket sales around $67 million to $80 million. It’s also expected to continue posting big numbers during the days leading up to Christmas, which falls on Sunday.

Imagine the reaction here if it actually hits $67m 4-day 

Edited December 20, 2022 by Cheddar Please

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, Cheddar Please said:

https://variety.com/2022/film/box-office/avatar-2-box-office-christmas-babylon-projections-1235466277/

 

Imagine the reaction here if it actually hits $67m 4-day 

 

 

That sounds pretty bad. Rogue One made $96M over the same 4-day period. 

[Verrows]

Just now, Cheddar Please said:

https://variety.com/2022/film/box-office/avatar-2-box-office-christmas-babylon-projections-1235466277/

 

Imagine the reaction here if it actually hits $67m 4-day 

Oh dear.

 

I would think negative reactions here would be 100% understandable and justified haha. Mods would have to let people get it out of their system.

[shachi86]

$67m 4-day will be pretty bad! Hell, even $80m puts it 17% behind Rogue One's 4-day second weekend!

[ZattMurdock]

5 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

https://variety.com/2022/film/box-office/avatar-2-box-office-christmas-babylon-projections-1235466277/

 

Imagine the reaction here if it actually hits $67m 4-day 

 

3 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

 

That sounds pretty bad. Rogue One made $96M over the same 4-day period. 

I can’t even break this down. It would make my 3-day under $50m look reasonable, but I was doing mostly for the thread purposes. Damn.

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, shachi86 said:

$67m 4-day will be pretty bad! Hell, even $80m puts it 17% behind Rogue One's 4-day second weekend!

 

Yeah, the Monday number is 7.5% lower than Rogue One. If that continues, it would be a $88 million gross for the upcoming 4-day weekend. We all assume Avatar should have better legs than Star Wars, so I think it's not unreasonable to think $90M+ should happen.

[XXR vs XXR]

Indeed $67M would be atrocious and we could put a cork in $500M DOM if it happens. 

[swsaga]

6 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

https://variety.com/2022/film/box-office/avatar-2-box-office-christmas-babylon-projections-1235466277/

 

Imagine the reaction here if it actually hits $67m 4-day 

 

 

My reaction will be this

[Menor the Destroyer]

I don't think that low end is totally impossible, but the trades don't exactly specialize in predicting drops. 

 

Edit: Actually that low end seems really tough though. Would be absolutely atrocious. Wouldn't put much stock in any of these predictions regardless. 

Edited December 20, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Verrows]

It would also prove people were right all along that the first Avatar was a technical wonder, not something that inserted itself into popular culture and stayed there. 

 

 

[Cheddar Please]

On the other hand Deadline is once again ironically looking quite reasonable 
https://deadline.com/2022/12/avatar-the-way-of-water-christmas-box-office-babylon-puss-in-boots-the-last-wish-1235203394/

Quote

At the bare minimum, the 20th Century Studios/Disney movie should secure $60M-$65M for the 3-day and $90M-$95M for the 4-day. That’s on par with Rogue One: A Star Wars Story which played into its second weekend in a year when Christmas fell on a Sunday. Avatar 2 made $16M yesterday, with a Sunday to Monday decline at -56% which was similar to Rogue One‘s -54%. Rogue One‘s first Monday was $17.5M. Some rivals won’t be surprised if Avatar 2 touches $100M over its four-day run.

 

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

https://variety.com/2022/film/box-office/avatar-2-box-office-christmas-babylon-projections-1235466277/

 

Imagine the reaction here if it actually hits $67m 4-day 

 

Before we go crazy here, looks like Variety is being a little sloppy, no?  They call for a 40 to 50 percent drop but then mention the extended weekend.  Is their 67m-80m for the 3 day or the 4 day?  The percentages are perfectly in line with 67-80 but I'm not entirely sure they mean 67-80 over three days or four.

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

Before we go crazy here, looks like Variety is being a little sloppy, no?  They call for a 40 to 50 percent drop but then mention the extended weekend.  Is their 67m-80m for the 3 day or the 4 day?  The percentages are perfectly in line with 67-80 but I'm not entirely sure they mean 67-80 over three days or four.

Yeah I’m confused here. 

[Cheddar Please]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Before we go crazy here, looks like Variety is being a little sloppy, no?  They call for a 40 to 50 percent drop but then mention the extended weekend.  Is their 67m-80m for the 3 day or the 4 day?  The percentages are perfectly in line with 67-80 but I'm not entirely sure they mean 67-80 over three days or four.

Variety is projecting 67-80m 4 day, Deadline is saying 60-65m 3 day, 90-95m 4 day

Edit: Actually I see what you mean, I would think 4 day, but they also posted this yesterday:

Quote

Even with strong legs, it’s unlikely “The Way of Water” is going to replicate the pattern of its predecessor, which ended its run with nearly 10 times its opening weekend haul. Industry insiders believe the follow-up is primed to earn four times its opening weekend sales, which would put domestic returns at roughly $536 million to $600 million

 

Edited December 20, 2022 by Cheddar Please