Christmas Weekend Thread | Avatar 95.6m, PiB 20.05m, Babylon 4.85m 4 days

[JimiQ]

21 minutes ago, HangSolo said:

Navi's new leader Kiri decides to send two robots back in time, one to kill Quaritch's mother and one to kill young Quaritch.

Quaritch will travel back in time with help of a crazy scientist to kiss his own mother and then get her together with his father

[Joyous Legion]

15 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Like one of the admins surprisingly said on here about a week ago (surprisingly but very welcome for for me), admission talk is just a fanboy argument to try and make a film you dont like look worse, or a film you like look better.

 

Plus when taking into account WW numbers for A2, it will be blowing past R1 and others admissions wise.

Admissions are always guess work too, while dollars has hard data.

 

 

That mod was completely wrong. They aren’t gods. They are humans with human opinions and biases.
 

A2 will be behind A LOT of films I think you’d be surprised by in global admits.  
 

Admissions are hard data in most markets.

Edited December 27, 2022 by Legion in Boots

[Dale Cooper]

12 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

That admin probably only think/care about US box office, because there are markets where admission data is of first preference for movie tracking , try visiting Korea thread or France, LATAM and majority of European markets.

Well, just because some countries reports in admissions doesn't mean it's more important. Any movie theatre or studio would rather sell 1M admissions for $20 a piece rather than 1.2M for $10 a piece. It's all business really.

 

Adminssions can be interesting in some cases, but for box office purposes it's not really that interesting.

[wildphantom]

23 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think admissions point to simple thing that "x" many people went to watch film.

The higher gross implies that those who went to watch, watched it in PLFs and 3D.

yeah, I was more saying that admissions could be higher if people could see the films they want to see in the screen they want to see it in.  Especially when it comes to repeat viewings. 
 

The discrepancy between what you get with a PLF and the dregs of the smaller 2D screens buried at the back of your local multiplex is gigantic. 
 

It’ll probably take some investment from a couple of the big studios to get more PLF’s in multiplexes.  I don’t think it’ll be long before it happens though. 

[Joyous Legion]

7 minutes ago, Dale Cooper said:

Well, just because some countries reports in admissions doesn't mean it's more important. Any movie theatre or studio would rather sell 1M admissions for $20 a piece rather than 1.2M for $10 a piece. It's all business really.

 

Adminssions can be interesting in some cases, but for box office purposes it's not really that interesting.

Obviously it’s not important because of being the preferred metric for BO success/performance/records in most of the world. Rather, there is a common cause behind admits being important and being the preferred metric in most of the world — it’s more informative about how two different movies compare in terms of how big they were.  

 

They’re very interesting for BO purposes for just that reason.  
 

and the 2M made by your first movie probably isn’t worth as much to the studios and theaters as the 1.2M made by the 2nd movie, because the doubled atp means likely ~100% general inflation between their release dates.

Edited December 27, 2022 by Legion in Boots

[Mr Roark]

$32M Boxing Day not bad at all.

[JohnnyGossamer]

What's the Monday number? Is it expected to be above or below R1's second Monday?

[stripe]

9 minutes ago, JimiQ said:

Quaritch will travel back in time with help of a crazy scientist to kiss his own mother and then get her together with his father

 

Thanks to DNA found in fossil Pandorian mosquitos, Human scientists revive extinct Pandorian species to make an incredible park. Also, secretly the scientists have also developed a locust mutation. Unexpectedly, something goes wrong and only Kiri's blue blood can fix everything.

[Joyous Legion]

7 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

What's the Monday number? Is it expected to be above or below R1's second Monday?

~equal

[Joyous Legion]

7 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

Thanks to DNA found in fossil Pandorian mosquitos, Human scientists revive extinct Pandorian species to make an incredible park. Also, secretly the scientists have also developed a locust mutation. Unexpectedly, something goes wrong and only Kiri's blue blood can fix everything.

Finally 5 billies curtesy of 300M admit from @Brainbug

[THUNDER BIRD]

1 hour ago, wildphantom said:

So we’re saying more Americans would show up for this 
 

 

over this ?

 

Wow

 

 

 

Jumanji was fun, it's the movie that released alongside it that they have made their biggest franchise that concerns me.

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 minute ago, Legion in Boots said:

~equal

Ah! Thanks! So the Christmas Day number was more of a correction after the 12/23 and 12/24 numbers were a bit deflated due to weather and now it's back to tracking right alongside R1 again. Should pull ahead marginally in dailies this week I'd imagine.

[Joyous Legion]

Just now, JohnnyGossamer said:

Ah! Thanks! So the Christmas Day number was more of a correction after the 12/23 and 12/24 numbers were a bit deflated due to weather and now it's back to tracking right alongside R1 again. Should pull ahead marginally in dailies this week I'd imagine.

Yeah seems so.  
 

I have it ahead Tues and below wed-fri before pulling ahead satsun. Could really go either way on any of them though.

[THUNDER BIRD]

9 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

Thanks to DNA found in fossil Pandorian mosquitos, Human scientists revive extinct Pandorian species to make an incredible park. Also, secretly the scientists have also developed a locust mutation. Unexpectedly, something goes wrong and only Kiri's blue blood can fix everything.

This reminds me that Minnions 2 outgrossed JW The Minion Worldwide minus China.

 

Colin Trevererro has blood on his hands for butchering the almighty setup of previous movie. 

[Dale Cooper]

4 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

Obviously it’s not important because of being the preferred metric for BO success/performance/records in most of the world. Rather, there is a common cause behind admits being important and being the preferred metric in most of the world — it’s more informative about how two different movies compare in terms of how big they were.  

 

They’re very interesting for BO purposes for just that reason.  
 

and the 2M made by your first movie probably isn’t worth as much to the studios and theaters as the 1.2M made by the 2nd movie, because the doubled atp means likely ~100% general inflation between their release dates.

Sure, but the fact still remains: any theatre or studio would rather bag more money than sell more tickets.

 

Anyway, it's clearly more complex than just saying "movie 1 sold x tickets worldwide and movie 2 sold less so that means 1 was more popular". Take Avatar for example: it played insanely well in western markets, by far the biggest film since Titanic (both in gross and admits). If it had played just reguarly very well in those markets, but insanely well in other markets (typically markets that MCU plays really well in) it might have ended up selling more tickets overall but made a lot less money. Would it really have been more popular if it did that?

[THUNDER BIRD]

4 minutes ago, Dale Cooper said:

Sure, but the fact still remains: any theatre or studio would rather bag more money than sell more tickets.

 

Anyway, it's clearly more complex than just saying "movie 1 sold x tickets worldwide and movie 2 sold less so that means 1 was more popular". Take Avatar for example: it played insanely well in western markets, by far the biggest film since Titanic (both in gross and admits). If it had played just reguarly very well in those markets, but insanely well in other markets (typically markets that MCU plays really well in) it might have ended up selling more tickets overall but made a lot less money. Would it really have been more popular if it did that?

About popularity, basically take any MCU movie after 10 years, re-release out and compare it with what Avatar re-release did this year.

 

As far as i remember they re-released NWH with some gimmick just few months later, didn't work.

[Mr Roark]

16 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

What's the Monday number? Is it expected to be above or below R1's second Monday?

Perfectly tied: $32M.

[Alexdube]

3 hours ago, Elessar said:

So, if Avatar 2 is to reach 600m DOM it needs to first make up about $24m to catch up to Rogue One and then outgross it by another $67m, that's over $90m all in all, no chump change. Personally, at this point, i have some doubts that it is going to do that. So far, it is losing some days and winning other days, showing no signs of clear legs advantage. And the longer it takes the more difficult it gets because grosses get smaller and smaller. The next few days will be crucial...

A2 is a 3+ hours long PLF skewing movie. I believe that gives the movie a soft cap on how much money it can make daily (see Monday). It also doesn't have the heavy fanbase Star Wars has, so how is A2 doing similar daily numbers to RO already? What edge does it have? Every demographic wants to see it (a true GA movie) + the PLF screens

 

In other words, demand is burning off slower for A2

 

I also believe the storm is still having a lingering effect in some parts of Canada/US making it more difficult to have a clear picture on legs, but things are starting to clear up 

 

With that said, putting my chips down and making this prediction: whether or not Rogue One is above A2 on Monday, it will never be above it again

[grey ghost]

It's reasonable for a box office nerd to look at admissions to evaluate the current vitality of theaters since we're all somewhat concerned with how theaters are doing.

[Joyous Legion]

11 minutes ago, Dale Cooper said:

Sure, but the fact still remains: any theatre or studio would rather bag more money than sell more tickets.

No. They would rather bag more real dollars, but they would not necessarily rather bag more nominal dollars. Admits correlates strongly with the former.  
 

11 minutes ago, Dale Cooper said:

Anyway, it's clearly more complex than just saying "movie 1 sold x tickets worldwide and movie 2 sold less so that means 1 was more popular"

Sure, of course. But that’s at least a more accurate thing to say on avg than “movie 1 made more nominal USD gross worldwide and movie 2 made less so that means movie 1 was more popular.” 
 

11 minutes ago, Dale Cooper said:

Take Avatar for example: it played insanely well in western markets, by far the biggest film since Titanic (both in gross and admits). If it had played just reguarly very well in those markets, but insanely well in other markets (typically markets that MCU plays really well in) it might have ended up selling more tickets overall but made a lot less money. Would it really have been more popular if it did that?

Would it really have been more popular globally if more people globally decided to pay to see it? I mean… to a first approximation, yes!   
 

Do you think 10M people seeing a movie in a rich country means more global popularity than 50M in a poor one? Why would that possibly be the case?

Edited December 27, 2022 by Legion in Boots