Christmas Weekend Thread | Avatar 95.6m, PiB 20.05m, Babylon 4.85m 4 days

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, Dale Cooper said:

"movie 1 sold x tickets worldwide and movie 2 sold less so that means 1 was more popular"

uh... that's exactly what it means.

[Joyous Legion]

5 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

With that said, putting my chips down and making this prediction: whether or not Rogue One is above A2 on Monday, it will never be above it again

If you’re putting your chips down I’m happy to make a username bet on this  

[grey ghost]

What worldwide total does A2 need to guarantee Avatar 4 and 5?

[Alexdube]

1 minute ago, Legion in Boots said:

If you’re putting your chips down I’m happy to make a username bet on this  

not familiar with the concept

[Joyous Legion]

Just now, grey ghost said:

What worldwide total does A2 need to guarantee Avatar 4 and 5?

Already locked since budgets should be lower with the tech already developed. Even when BO drops they should both make a solid profit.

[Joyous Legion]

1 minute ago, Alexdube said:

not familiar with the concept

Real money betting is discouraged here (though if you’d be interested, feel free to DM). Username bet is pretty low stakes just for fun where the winner can choose a new username for the loser for some agreed period of time (usually a week or a month I think).   
 

Though I guess your account probably can’t name change atm so it wouldn’t really make sense 😛 

[HangSolo]

3 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

What worldwide total does A2 need to guarantee Avatar 4 and 5?

No one knows now since A2 is on track to around 2B(+-5%) and 4 & 5 is 100% happening.

[titanic2187]

34 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:

$32M Boxing Day not bad at all.

But I think we have wait long enough to conclude that this will be a good run but not a legendary run.

 

32 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

Thanks to DNA found in fossil Pandorian mosquitos, Human scientists revive extinct Pandorian species to make an incredible park. Also, secretly the scientists have also developed a locust mutation. Unexpectedly, something goes wrong and only Kiri's blue blood can fix everything.

Or....

 

Pandora collide with Earth and causing Pandora to sink into a blackhole. Kiri and Spider rush to where they first met and wait for their fate.   

[Nero]

17 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

About popularity, basically take any MCU movie after 10 years, re-release out and compare it with what Avatar re-release did this year.

 

As far as i remember they re-released NWH with some gimmick just few months later, didn't work.

Avatar was also immediately re released and its first re release grossed around $10M so wasn't that much behind what NWH achieved. TGM re release also didn't do much because people have movie in their mind. For proper re release to work you have to wait few years 

Edited December 27, 2022 by Nero

[Joyous Legion]

MCU rerelease is tough since it’s a (mostly) linear serialized narrative. If you showed Red Wedding in theaters as a fathom event same day it releases, could make big bank. Try to do same trick in S7 and will make pennies. Red wedding hasn’t gotten less popular per se but the story has moved on.

[Gkalaitza]

Admit talk just requires most of the same but also some extra context and nuance compared to just comparing gross numbers in $ even the stuff to keep in mind is often similar.  Changes in movie going behavior since the pandemic and streaming explosion when comparing to stuff beforehand.  Average ticket Prices between the 2 movies relative to contemporary purchasing power. Other ways of watching the movie available even during its cinema run (solid theater recordings released online). Length. Population and demographic changes. Movie being more repeat vieweing heavy compared to others. So 45 million admits this year for Avatar 2 may be just as impressive and indicative of popularity as 50 million admits for a star wars movie 5 years ago.

 

Most of these true for worldwide as well and there you should also look at markets being messed up or missing out due to external factors (like rn for A2) and market and middle class expansion in the developing world compared to demographic changes in mature markets.

 

Also for just "popularity" talk you have to consider sales of physical media when talking about movies in the 90s to early 10s and probable streaming numbers in the last whatever years. Movies dont behave exactly the same in popularity in those aspects after they are done with the theaters

Edited December 27, 2022 by Gkalaitza

[Alexdube]

3 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

Real money betting is discouraged here (though if you’d be interested, feel free to DM). Username bet is pretty low stakes just for fun where the winner can choose a new username for the loser for some agreed period of time (usually a week or a month I think).   
 

Though I guess your account probably can’t name change atm so it wouldn’t really make sense 😛 

 

I figured that's what it was but yeah, can't change it now. I did try to change my username for myself, but I can't even buy an account, paypal won't accept my credit card for some weird reason.

 

Anyway, not going to do any kind of betting right now, people can just bring it back to my face if I'm wrong. Hope it lasts more than a day at least 😆

[Nero]

11 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

What worldwide total does A2 need to guarantee Avatar 4 and 5?

I would say anything above $1.5B basically guarantees the other sequels. 

[4815162342]

3 hours ago, marveldcfox said:

What's with people fascination for admissions. It is the $ that matters. Fuck admissions. If you have both then great, but I will always take raw gross over other criteria. Like a typical baniya of India.

 

Admissions is a useful and important tool since it places certain box office runs in context because of inflation. Films in the past had to sell more tickets to reach the same numbers films released now do, so it's a fun thing to keep track of, since it can corral some runaway reactions

[Dale Cooper]

2 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

No. They would rather bag more real dollars, but they would not necessarily rather bag more nominal dollars. Admits correlates strongly with the former.  
 

Sure, of course. But that’s at least a more accurate thing to say on avg than “movie 1 made more nominal USD gross worldwide and movie 2 made less so that means movie 1 was more popular.” 
 

Would it really have been more popular globally if more people globally decided to pay to see it? I mean… to a first approximation, yes!   
 

Do you think 10M people seeing a movie in a rich country means more global popularity than 50M in a poor one? Why would that possibly be the case?

But dependening on where in the world you make your money, it absolutely means that different amounts of admits will mean different amounts of nominal dollars. Also, the pricing of a movie ticket is certainly done with the hope of maximizing the revenue rather than the amount of admits sold. For example, if Avatar had the same ATP in Sweden (where I live) as a regular children film, it would have certainly sold more tickets than it will, but would most probably have grossed less. Again, it's about revenue.

 

As for you last part, no I don't agree with that. But it's certainly more complex than just comparing the numbers straight. And that's my point.

[charlie Jatinder]

36 minutes ago, Dale Cooper said:

any theatre or studio would rather bag more money than sell more tickets

More admissions means more popcorns/snacks sold, which is bigger revenue for theaters than share in gross. Other stuff like more parking revenue, more ad revenue and so on.

Admission are the truer data of cinema health, not just gross.

Admission is the primary activity. ATP, exchange rates, etc are variable. When analysing/forecasting, its the admission data that is the key and then you factor in the variables.

Edited December 27, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[XXR & Friends]

A4 and A5 will definitely happen at this point. A2 will get to a minimum of #7 worldwide. Right now I assume A3 will drop about 20-25% admits in all markets (excluding China) and the A4 about 5-10% from that with A5 flat from A4.

 

Any way you spin it, the five films are probably doing a minimum of $10B and perhaps upwards of $12-12.5B.

[Dale Cooper]

22 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

uh... that's exactly what it means.

In a very simplistic way, you can argue that. But not if you try to argue with any nuance. It's much more complex than that.

[stripe]

26 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

What worldwide total does A2 need to guarantee Avatar 4 and 5?

 

They're already making 4th so no need to worry.

I guess Disney execs would be satisfied if Avatar 2 gross more than 1.3b (top 15 WW, a given at this point). The real question for them to greenlight 5th is how well will Avatar 3 do.

Edited December 27, 2022 by stripe

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Dale Cooper said:

In a very simplistic way, you can argue that. But not if you try to argue with any nuance. It's much more complex than that.

naa, in any ways, more consumption is more popular.