Christmas Weekend Thread | Avatar 95.6m, PiB 20.05m, Babylon 4.85m 4 days

[Dale Cooper]

4 minutes ago, M37 said:

With that said, seating is a fixed quantity, and you'd still rather have seats filled by higher admits even with only a small return to theaters from that ticket (studios getting most), than a 75%-90% empty auditorium - can't sell snacks to someone who isn't in your building, even if they were only a hit 1 of every 5 or 10 visits.

Absolutely, it's about getting the right balance. There's many aspects of it.

 

For example, in my town right now Avatar is by far the most popular film. The movie theatres here probably would have done good to give just about every screen these days between Christmas and New Years to Avatar, to maximize profits right now. However, if they had done so they'd probably have lost a lot of the audience that watches other movies (who wouldn't have come if they can't go between these days) whereas with Avatar people would probably just see it next week or at a later screening instead.

[charlie Jatinder]

One solution could be taking Avengers sub-franchise.

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

One solution could be taking Avengers sub-franchise.

I think thats fair. Otherwise you will be talking 5 films vs 30 films.

[XXR & Friends]

4 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

There are 30 MCU films.

Yes? That doesn’t change his statement. 

[M37]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think SUN was just inflated from FRI and SAT demand from storm hit shifting to SUN.

That's probably part of it, though Thu/Fri/Sat don't appear significantly lower than what would be expected (like 5-8%), so I'm not sure how much demand there was to shift. It could just be that a really cold - but precipitation free - day across much of the country where 99% of indoor activities are unavailable just help facilitate a really good day for the movies

 

 

[stuart360]

1 minute ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

Yes? That doesn’t change his statement. 

I know it doesnt XXR, i'm just saying.

[Joyous Legion]

First 5 avengers vs first 5 avatar could get interesting. Probably give the edge to avatar nominal and avengers in admits/adjusted 😛 

[THUNDER BIRD]

5 Avatar vs 6 Avengers and Avatar will win.

 

Unless MCU gets its stuff together, Kang Dynasty is heading towards a shocker at Box Office.

 

Secret Wars might end up doing great because they'll have all the cameos and nostalgia characters most probably.

 

On other hand i trust Cameron to deliver quality throughout the 5 movies.

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

First 5 avengers vs first 5 avatar could get interesting. Probably give the edge to avatar nominal and avengers in admits/adjusted 😛 

Agreed. Off the dome math gives me about $10.6B for Avatar and $10.1B for The Avengers (both assuming the next 3 Avatar and KD get China).

[Joyous Legion]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

That's probably part of it, though Thu/Fri/Sat don't appear significantly lower than what would be expected (like 5-8%), so I'm not sure how much demand there was to shift. It could just be that a really cold - but precipitation free - day across much of the country where 99% of indoor activities are unavailable just help facilitate a really good day for the movies

 

 

FWIW, if A2 exactly followed ro from wed:

Th 16.1 (actual is -9%)

Fri 21.9 (actual is -11%)

Sat 14.7 (actual +2%)

Sun 24.8

Mon 30.8   
 

So minus about 1.5M th, 2.5M Fri, nothing sat. + about 4.5M Sun, 1M Mon.  
 

Will be able to dial in counterfactuals better once we get data for 3rd FriSatSunMon , but if A2 is more satsun heavy than there is more lost gross sat and less gained sun, so it Tammy be like 65% of th-sat biz went to sun and 15% to mon (with rest truly lost/dribbled out very minorly through next weekdays 

Edited December 27, 2022 by Legion in Boots

[grey ghost]

28 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

 

Cameron is scared rn.

 

Meagan gonna cut his legs like Chucky.

[M37]

14 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Family spend is the highest concession spend, and that's why theaters not figuring out a subscription plan for them is so problematic and glaring (see, I can stay on a theme for months til Deadline reads my post and goes with it:)...

 

Every time I'm at the theater with the 4 kids, it's 2 large popcorns, minimum, which is now a $19 spend...so per kid, it's almost $5/head...before I see if I buy Icees for them, too...

The biggest spenders are the OD fanboys (and girls!) who will pay for a premium tickets, the biggest drinks/popcorn/food you offer, plus whatever movie-specific novelty items can be made for that release. But that’s a very small portion of the overall audience

 

I honestly don’t know why there hasn’t been more of an effort to bring back families, but I expect (hope?) there’s going to be some shifts in strategy over the next year or two, including family-friendly options. Because if you’re not encouraging movie-going habits to the kids by pricing out their parents, the long term prospects become more bleak 

[fabiopazzo2]

9 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

5 Avatar vs 6 Avengers and Avatar will win.

 

Unless MCU gets its stuff together, Kang Dynasty is heading towards a shocker at Box Office.

 

Secret Wars might end up doing great because they'll have all the cameos and nostalgia characters most probably.

 

On other hand i trust Cameron to deliver quality throughout the 5 movies.

Dude. The first and Avengers and IW are much much much much much better than 2 Avatar. Lol

[Factcheck]

7 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

First 5 avengers vs first 5 avatar could get interesting. Probably give the edge to avatar nominal and avengers in admits/adjusted 😛 

Does James Cameron have the guts to release Avatar 3 in summer? We'll know then which is the bigger franchise.

[THUNDER BIRD]

2 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

Dude. The first and Avengers and IW are much much much much much better than 2 Avatar. Lol

So, how does that matter.

 

I'm talking about Kang Dynasty and Secret Wars vs Rest 3 Avatars.

 

 

[grey ghost]

17 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

I think thats fair. Otherwise you will be talking 5 films vs 30 films.

 

 

Longevity is an accomplishment in itself.

 

Not every franchise can last 30 films.

 

 

[marveldcfox]

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

A typical baniya of India won't be happy getting ₹1000 in 2022 if he lend the same amount in 2016.

 

He will like to have ₹2000 for that ₹1000 after 6 years.

Not when covid19 came in between and exchange rates are all wonky all over the world. But yes, a typical baniya would be sad to see returns /profits lower compared to previous investment when expenditure is much more. Are you Punjabi baniya? Curious. 

[THUNDER BIRD]

Kang Dynasty will behave like Avengers 1&2 rather than 3&4 

 

I'm sure Disney and Marvel are thinking to repeat another Infinity War and Endgame.

 

But so far, I'm not looking whatever they have done. We can talk in detail but long thing short, my first line.

[Joyous Legion]

1 minute ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

Kang Dynasty will behave like Avengers 1&2 rather than 3&4 

Avengers 1 behaved better than avengers 3. I expect KD will perform worse than 2 at this point but may still be able to hit 2B if it gets China

[M37]

18 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

FWIW, if A2 exactly followed ro from wed:

Th 16.1 (actual is -9%)

Fri 21.9 (actual is -11%)

Sat 14.7 (actual +2%)

Sun 24.8

Mon 30.8   
 

So minus about 1.5M th, 2.5M Fri, nothing sat. + about 4.5M Sun, 1M Mon.  
 

Will be able to dial in counterfactuals better once we get data for 3rd FriSatSunMon , but if A2 is more satsun heavy than there is more lost gross sat and less gained sun, so it Tammy be like 65% of th-sat biz went to sun and 15% to mon (with rest truly lost/dribbled out very minorly through next weekdays 

The holidays when every day is like a Saturday make this trickier, but generally people/audiences are pretty day of the week specific in their movie watching. So an outside factor depressed Fri pushes demand to the following Fri far more than to the next day or two. That’s why I’m a little hesitant to credit the big Xmas day solely to weather shifted demand and looking at alternate causes 

 

(and why I’m still penciling in a rebound effect on the upcoming Th/Fr/Sa)

 

Edit: also keep in mind that Xmas day pre-sales were pretty strong before the storm, so we already had some evidence of a preference for that day 

Edited December 27, 2022 by M37