Christmas Weekend Thread | Avatar 95.6m, PiB 20.05m, Babylon 4.85m 4 days

[Hiccup23]

So if Avatar 2 runs identical to Rogue One it will end around $546 million.

[Nero]

34 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Earthquakes? Lol

[XXR & Friends]

10 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Avatar 2 will be at low-to-mid $400s at the end of its third Monday. Avatar itself made $390m past its third Monday, and that's pretty much what Avatar 2 would need to reach No Way Home. I think it's pretty fair to say that challenging No Way Home domestically stopped being a possibility quite a while ago.

 

I think the best (realistic) target for Avatwo domestically is to get into the Top 10 all-time. It'll need about $200M post NYWE. 

 

[Deep Wang]

8 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

yes exactly, and TGM made $310m after that point. disagree you're putting false limits on it because you think its impossible to challenge first movie numbers post december

 

Do you honestly believe in your heart of hearts that Avatwo has as good a WOM as TG:M did?

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Deep Wang said:

Do you honestly believe in your heart of hearts that Avatwo has as good a WOM as TG:M did?

Yes, you forget that people exist outside of 30-50yo males

[Nero]

1 minute ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Do you honestly believe in your heart of hearts that Avatwo has as good a WOM as TG:M did?

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

 

I think the best (realistic) target for Avatwo domestically is to get into the Top 10 all-time. It'll need about $200M post NYWE. 

 

 

Would be funny if it goes above Last Jedi. 

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Do you honestly believe in your heart of hearts that Avatwo has as good a WOM as TG:M did?

I'd say no as TGM seemd to be universally loved, where as with A2 we know thats not the case with the amount of haters it has. Still wom is as good as the first AVATAR from what i have seen around the web.

 

TGM probably had better WOM than the first AVATAR, and well the rest is history.

 

You dont need absolutely flawless wom to become huge. 99% of films released every year probably dont have wom as good as TGM.

[IronJimbo]

everyone always forgets repeat viewings, it happens that A2 is very rewatchable.

[hw64]

26 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

yes exactly, and TGM made $310m after that point. disagree you're putting false limits on it because you think its impossible to challenge first movie numbers post december

 

Absolutely I do. A reminder of the kind of things you've got to achieve to reach that $390m:

• A $50m fourth weekend;
• A $43m fifth weekend (-15%);
• A $35m sixth weekend (-18%);
• A $31m seventh weekend (-10%);
• A $23m eighth weekend (-27%);
• A $23.5m ninth weekend (+3%)

Top Gun: Maverick was Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar was Top Gun: Maverick on steroids, but Avatar 2 is neither Top Gun: Maverick nor Avatar. And even with Avatar-level word-of-mouth which Avatar 2 doesn't have, being able to replicate these kind of legs in a post-COVID world would still be unlikely for a myriad of other reasons — too much has changed since 2009.

Edited December 26, 2022 by hw64

[Alex SciChannel]

Wtf

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

 

49 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Anyone from the Rogue 1 weekend thread remember why it's legs go so so bad from the wed 4th to the rest of the run?

It's 4th weekend drop is so brutal, $49.5m -> $22m ( -54%)

 

 

 

COMPETITION 

[hw64]

14 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

 

I think the best (realistic) target for Avatwo domestically is to get into the Top 10 all-time. It'll need about $200M post NYWE. 

 

 

Yeah I'd say that's reasonable as a best-case — it'd be slightly above what The Force Awakens ($186m) and No Way Home ($183m) managed to do past their third Mondays.

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

 

Lol. Only 5 movies have hit $2b but yeah, there's nothing special about it.

My point is Cameron has done it twice already, decades ago. Why make a big deal about it hitting $2b (people already claiming studio will have re-release tactics to get it there, etc)? Titanic seems like the only truly notable benchmark it still has any chance to be able to hit. 

[MovieMan89]

To me the much more interesting thing on the table is if it suddenly develops A1 type legs from here out and eclipses it DOM. I don’t think there are any truly interesting/notable WW benchmarks on the table for it now sadly. We know top 2 all time is definitely out. 

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

To me the much more interesting thing on the table is if it suddenly develops A1 type legs from here out and eclipses it DOM. I don’t think there are any truly interesting/notable WW benchmarks on the table for it now sadly. We know top 2 all time is definitely out. 

closer to endgame the better so it can get killed off by re-releases

[JimiQ]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

closer to endgame the better so it can get killed off by re-releases

Nah, Avatwo will finish somewhere between 600 and 650, meanwhile EG will get rerelease before Avengers 5  (healthy $300M WW would do)

[MovieMan89]

It had a crazy enough jump yesterday that there is a long shot chance it actually could beat A1 DOM now if it continues stellar holds the next week and then does better than average in Jan/Feb. Still a long hard road to that, but the math for it is there now and makes DOM the far more interesting thing to watch bc we know there’s no chance for it to beat A1 WW. 

Edited December 26, 2022 by MovieMan89

[Deep Wang]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

closer to endgame the better so it can get killed off by re-releases

 

 

So you are thinking A2 will get multiple releases over the years like the first one has?

[stuart360]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

My point is Cameron has done it twice already, decades ago. Why make a big deal about it hitting $2b (people already claiming studio will have re-release tactics to get it there, etc)? Titanic seems like the only truly notable benchmark it still has any chance to be able to hit. 

2bil for ANY film under the current climate is amazing, whether its AVATAR, Star Wars, or a new Avengers.

 

Besides if we were getting a full China gross as oppose to a massively reduced covid riddled gross, then film would of grossed WELL over 2bil.