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charlie Jatinder

Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!

By charlie Jatinder, in Numbers and Data

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ThomasNicole Summer Tentpole

ThomasNicole

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

Deadline

 

Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Puss in Boots: The Last Wish held solid with $6.7M on Tuesday, -2% from its Dec. 26 Monday of $6.8M, when many were off from work for the holiday. The sequel’s running total through seven days stands at $32.8M, 40% behind Sing 2 last year which also opened on a Wednesday.

Incredible, i really think this can legs out for ~150M

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Alex SciChannel Box Office Gold

Alex SciChannel

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

Deadline

 

Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Puss in Boots: The Last Wish held solid with $6.7M on Tuesday, -2% from its Dec. 26 Monday of $6.8M, when many were off from work for the holiday. The sequel’s running total through seven days stands at $32.8M, 40% behind Sing 2 last year which also opened on a Wednesday.

Cringe man rounded down this time when he should've rounded up. 

 

#PussinBootsSweep

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IronJimbo Global Phenomenon

IronJimbo

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, M37 said:

CC: @IronJimbo, @Alexdube, @Legion in Boots, @Deep Wang

 

Alright, lets get into January legs talk for real. I'm a visual person, so I mapped out the trajectory of the first 10 weeks of the recent December tentpoles and previous James Cameron films to show how they held and reached those legs over the long haul. Showing the retention by week (which is skewed a bit in the first 3 weeks depending on when holidays fall)

Note: shown in log scale since we're dealing with drop rate (exponential decay)

7ySVlV4.png

 

  • TLJ (yellow arrows) - clearly a victim of WOM, it kept dropping far faster and by late January was on its way out (also only film besides Titanic to have Xmas in opening week)
  • NWH (red arrows) - can see it was shallowing the comparable SW films for the holiday weeks 2 and 3, due to some combination of Omicron hesitancy and MCU spoiler/fan rush, but then caught up by mid January, and posted significantly better holds into February (all with a lighter release calendar)
  • TFA/RO (black arrow) - interesting to note that through week 6, TFA and RO were pacing very similarly. But on that week, RO faced the 1-2 punch of Split and XXX: Xander Cage, fell back, and never recovered, while TFA continued to hold very well into February despite some major competition (including Deadpool)
  • Titanic/Avatar (blue arrow) - notice anything different about weeks 2 and 3 here? Both increased from week 1 to week 2, and even by week 3 were miles ahead of anything else on this list. That trend continued during their respective runs; by week 6, nothing else was pulling even 6% of the OWeek gross, while they were at 62% & 35% retention

We're more than halfway through week 2 for Avatwo, and its looking to finish around 85% of the Oweek, slightly better than TFA (78%) and RO (80%). I have it penciled in to continue that for the following week, above but still very much in line with the SW comps. An optimistic outlook is that it tracks above RO/TFA through January and then more like NWH through February, but that's still probably like a $560-$580M finish

 

Once again,there really is no data to suggest we're on the precipice of some magical run in the new year and a burst to $600M, and we're really running out of time for it to suddenly appear

Nice thanks for visualising, makes it look like A2 is on track for an easy 700m

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Alexdube Sleeper Hit

Alexdube

Posted
Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, M37 said:

CC: @IronJimbo, @Alexdube, @Legion in Boots, @Deep Wang

 

Alright, lets get into January legs talk for real. I'm a visual person, so I mapped out the trajectory of the first 10 weeks of the recent December tentpoles and previous James Cameron films to show how they held and reached those legs over the long haul. Showing the retention by week (which is skewed a bit in the first 3 weeks depending on when holidays fall)

Note: shown in log scale since we're dealing with drop rate (exponential decay)

7ySVlV4.png

 

  • TLJ (yellow arrows) - clearly a victim of WOM, it kept dropping far faster and by late January was on its way out (also only film besides Titanic to have Xmas in opening week)
  • NWH (red arrows) - can see it was shallowing the comparable SW films for the holiday weeks 2 and 3, due to some combination of Omicron hesitancy and MCU spoiler/fan rush, but then caught up by mid January, and posted significantly better holds into February (all with a lighter release calendar)
  • TFA/RO (black arrow) - interesting to note that through week 6, TFA and RO were pacing very similarly. But on that week, RO faced the 1-2 punch of Split and XXX: Xander Cage, fell back, and never recovered, while TFA continued to hold very well into February despite some major competition (including Deadpool)
  • Titanic/Avatar (blue arrow) - notice anything different about weeks 2 and 3 here? Both increased from week 1 to week 2, and even by week 3 were miles ahead of anything else on this list. That trend continued during their respective runs; by week 6, nothing else was pulling even 6% of the OWeek gross, while they were at 62% & 35% retention

We're more than halfway through week 2 for Avatwo, and its looking to finish around 85% of the Oweek, slightly better than TFA (78%) and RO (80%). I have it penciled in to continue that for the following week, above but still very much in line with the SW comps. An optimistic outlook is that it tracks above RO/TFA through January and then more like NWH through February, but that's still probably like a $560-$580M finish

 

Once again,there really is no data to suggest we're on the precipice of some magical run in the new year and a burst to $600M, and we're really running out of time for it to suddenly appear

 

Did you forget about the historic storm that hit on the second weekend? Also A2 had a proportionally stronger opening than the first one due to the fact it's now a known property, but does that mean its grosses will fall off a cliff like a superhero movie or SW? It could very well "stabilize" in January, we just don't know that yet. 

 

  

Edited by Alexdube
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hw64 Sleeper Hit

hw64

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

 

It hasn't even completed its second week...

 

However,

 

RO's second Monday was 45% of its opening day. A2's was 60%.

 

Opening day was anomalous and the only day in which Avatar 2 significantly deviates from Rogue One, largely due to a difference in the size of the Thursday preview grosses.

 

You could use the opening day comparison to say the same about any of Avatar 2's day, e.g. its first Monday of $16.3m was 31% of its opening day of $53.2m, whereas Rogue One's first Monday of $16.8m was only 24% of its opening day of $71.1m. Doesn't tell us anything except that Rogue One's opening day was anomalously large compared to Avatar 2's.

 

Because of the anomalous opening day performances, it's best to take some other early measure of the two movie's runs, like the opening Saturday. Avatar 2's second Monday of $32.3m was 73% of its opening Saturday of $44.3m, whereas Rogue One's second Monday of $32.1m was 69% of its opening Saturday of $46.3m. Very similar.

Edited by hw64
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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

 

It hasn't even completed its second week...

 

However,

 

RO's second Monday was 45% of its opening day. A2's was 60%.

There's only been 2 days where Avatwo has been more than 4% better than RO - one of those being Xmas - so I don't think there's too much variance in estimating the next two days to arrive at that 85% number

 

Besides second Monday being a holiday, the baseline for comparison you'd want to use is with the opening Saturday, not OD, where its 73% vs 69% - again, slightly ahead, but not separating very much

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Gkalaitza Indie Sensation

Gkalaitza

Posted
Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, M37 said:

CC: @IronJimbo, @Alexdube, @Legion in Boots, @Deep Wang

 

Alright, lets get into January legs talk for real. I'm a visual person, so I mapped out the trajectory of the first 10 weeks of the recent December tentpoles and previous James Cameron films to show how they held and reached those legs over the long haul. Showing the retention by week (which is skewed a bit in the first 3 weeks depending on when holidays fall)

Note: shown in log scale since we're dealing with drop rate (exponential decay)

7ySVlV4.png

 

  • TLJ (yellow arrows) - clearly a victim of WOM, it kept dropping far faster and by late January was on its way out (also only film besides Titanic to have Xmas in opening week)
  • NWH (red arrows) - can see it was shallowing the comparable SW films for the holiday weeks 2 and 3, due to some combination of Omicron hesitancy and MCU spoiler/fan rush, but then caught up by mid January, and posted significantly better holds into February (all with a lighter release calendar)
  • TFA/RO (black arrow) - interesting to note that through week 6, TFA and RO were pacing very similarly. But on that week, RO faced the 1-2 punch of Split and XXX: Xander Cage, fell back, and never recovered, while TFA continued to hold very well into February despite some major competition (including Deadpool)
  • Titanic/Avatar (blue arrow) - notice anything different about weeks 2 and 3 here? Both increased from week 1 to week 2, and even by week 3 were miles ahead of anything else on this list. That trend continued during their respective runs; by week 6, nothing else was pulling even 6% of the OWeek gross, while they were at 62% & 35% retention

We're more than halfway through week 2 for Avatwo, and its looking to finish around 85% of the Oweek, slightly better than TFA (78%) and RO (80%). I have it penciled in to continue that for the following week, above but still very much in line with the SW comps. An optimistic outlook is that it tracks above RO/TFA through January and then more like NWH through February, but that's still probably like a $560-$580M finish

 

Once again,there really is no data to suggest we're on the precipice of some magical run in the new year and a burst to $600M, and we're really running out of time for it to suddenly appear

If its "somewhat better TFA" behavior gives it enough seperation from NWH by Feb 1 then even if it doesnt follow NWH's behavior with the same success it can still stay above its line and aim for the 560-580 range , or not ? Also wouldnt the best realistic case scenario be that it starts to behave more like NHW's line by mid JAN instead of waiting for feb to do so and in that case it can go for 600m?

Edited by Gkalaitza
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Gkalaitza Indie Sensation

Gkalaitza

Posted
Posted (edited)

Chart wise I'd say it has a realistic case for behaving more like NWH in January already than the star wars comps, giving it a better seperation from them than just "tracking above them by a small %" . It doesnt have to only start behaving like NWH in feb in an optimistic scenario

Edited by Gkalaitza
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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

hmm. looks to me easy 600m+.

that aside, not sure what you have put for A2 2nd and 3rd week. i will go with 155 and 97.

Think I had (away from computer) like $155 and $85. Week 3 at $97 would be more than 20% above RO’s $80 - if it happens, can re-evaluate longer term, but that’s not the current trajectory 

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