Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!

[Brainbug]

14 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

no pika pika?

 

Huh? Pika-Pika made 3B back in 2019, 1B DOM alone. You forgot?

[Factcheck]

1 minute ago, JustLurking said:

Except there is no specification on when he had that convo with the studio, and in case you haven't noticed that mark kind of changes overtime. Even leaving that aside, a discussion he had with the studio as part od a large interview is not a cost breakdown and reporting it as such is irresponsible at best and malicious at worst.

 

Either way, continuing this argument when Cameron himself went on record to correct that statement is either ignorant or trolling, and frankly just gets annoying. Live up to your username.

I don't know about his new statement. What's his new statement?

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, Brainbug said:

 

Huh? Pika-Pika made 3B back in 2019, 1B DOM alone. You forgot?

my apologies. I was in diff reality.

[Sheldon Cr]

20 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

What would the media say when Cameron himself said so? 
This was Cameron's statement:
The Way of Water was expensive to make—How expensive? “Very fucking,” according to Cameron, who told me he’d informed the studio that the film represented “the worst business case in movie history.” In order to be profitable, he’d said, “you have to be the third or fourth highest-grossing film in history. That’s your threshold. That’s your break even.”

He meant domestically.

And that was asked of him when they are still developing the tools for 3-5 in 2011 folks!

 

In the end the film ended  up costing 350-400m then add advertising 150m 

 

So A2 will need 1b-1.2 to start profiting. 

 

This film will make over a billion ontop of that range. And A3 and A4 greenlit.

 

🦝😉. While to put things in perspective on how hard even just 600m-900+m ranges are to meet  to satisfy studios.

 

black adam 2, ww 3, morbius2,  mos.2 projects Rogue one.part 2??  DS3??

BP3 postponed

 

All above Cancelled or on that pending cancel block.

Edited December 29, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Editing post

[Cap]

I got my first good night of sleep in a month, and I see I missed all of the fun

[stuart360]

10 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

What would the media say when Cameron himself said so? 
This was Cameron's statement:
The Way of Water was expensive to make—How expensive? “Very fucking,” according to Cameron, who told me he’d informed the studio that the film represented “the worst business case in movie history.” In order to be profitable, he’d said, “you have to be the third or fourth highest-grossing film in history. That’s your threshold. That’s your break even.”

Because he has clarified since that he was talking about something he told the studio back in 2011 when they greenlit the sequels.

Top 3 or 4 biggest movie in 2011 is a little different than in 2022. Plus he was talking in regards to the 1bil the studio gave him for 3 sequels.

 

besides as you can see yourself, he never said 2bil.

[JustLurking]

5 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

I don't know about his new statement. What's his new statement?

 

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

 

Thanks for posting that.

He also talked about it being from 2011 when he was getting the sequels greenlit. Its in one of those sit down promotion interviews for A2.

Pretty sure its on Youtube for people if they want to check.

[Sheldon Cr]

40 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

yeah must be upsetting if you can't even make a billie when 2 billie is the new billie

Hah hah...Well Put Brother.Jimbo. Brother Grey forgot how many films plans went up in smoke because they couldn't reach even hit 600m-900m, much less the 1 billion mark.

 

[M37]

A $21M Wednesday?

 

Cuts the deficit to just over $20M, depending on actuals - first day of real separation from RO (other than Xmas) at +16-17%. Do wonder how much might be spillover (especially PLF) from pretty packed Sun/Mon/Tue, so won't be totally surprised if we see a marginally bigger drop than the -7% RO had for Thursday, or it could continue the flatter line as spillover continues, so -5-10% or $19-$20M expected

 

I said before this holiday week that expectations should be in range of -5% to +10% of RO, and last few days are definitely trending to the higher end of that range

Also can clearly see the impact of the storm last week on 12/22 & 12/23

 

[ThomasNicole]

So the last week was being hurted by the runtime, who could've imagine... lol 

 

Extraordinary number

[stuart360]

It took 25 years from the first 1bil movie, to today where we have 52 bil movies.

We currently have 5 2bil movies since 2009. I bet its going to take waaay longer than 25 years to get to 50 2bil movies.

[Elessar]

2 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

It took 25 years from the first 1bil movie, to today where we have 52 bil movies.

We currently have 5 2bil movies since 2009. I bet its going to take waaay longer than 25 years to get to 50 2bil movies.

 

China growth is probably the main reason for all those 1b+ movies.

[ThomasNicole]

Very curious about the weekend 

 

With ~19M THU, even the same jumps that R1 had would put it at 55M weekend 

 

But as we seem both on OW and especially last weekend, A2 is having better holds. 

 

I don't think it will stay flat, but 60M seems achievable

[stuart360]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

Very curious about the weekend 

 

With ~19M THU, even the same jumps that R1 had would put it at 55M weekend 

 

But as we seem both on OW and especially last weekend, A2 is having better holds. 

 

I don't think it will stay flat, but 60M seems achievable

I predicted 62mil in the weelend thread, and i'm sure its going to be close.

[Factcheck]

31 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

 

This statement makes sense because it will break even with $1.5 billion, TV money(min $200M) and ancillary money. But if he had remained with that statement, then it would have meant that he was talking about break even through "only" theatrical gross, which I already said in my previous comment.

Edited December 29, 2022 by Factcheck

[Borobudur]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Very curious about the weekend 

 

With ~19M THU, even the same jumps that R1 had would put it at 55M weekend 

 

But as we seem both on OW and especially last weekend, A2 is having better holds. 

 

I don't think it will stay flat, but 60M seems achievable

At this point the 3rd weekend is pointing to a gain and it is rightfully so because last week was suppressed by the storm.

[Sheldon Cr]

9 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

It took 25 years from the first 1bil movie, to today where we have 52 bil movies.

We currently have 5 2bil movies since 2009. I bet its going to take waaay longer than 25 years to get to 50 2bil movies.

Absolutely  no doubt about it, especially if they keep putting out.films like Babylon and BP2 as Pretender.must see events. Hwood better think of ways to make magic.happen again and follow Cameron's lead.

[XXR & Friends]

5 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

It took 25 years from the first 1bil movie, to today where we have 52 bil movies.

We currently have 5 2bil movies since 2009. I bet its going to take waaay longer than 25 years to get to 50 2bil movies.

 
Assuming A2 gets there, the amount of first run 2B films (5) in the 13 years after the first would actually be the same number as the first run 1B films 13 years after the first. They really exploded in the last decade.

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

 
Assuming A2 gets there, the amount of first run 2B films (5) in the 13 years after the first would actually be the same number as the first run 1B films 13 years after the first. They really exploded in the last decade.

Ok i'll put it another way. Do you think when we reach 25 years after AVATAR, there will be over 50 2bil movies?.