Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!

[Sheldon Cr]

6 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

I predicted 62mil in the weelend thread, and i'm sure its going to be close.

Im still going  with my 63m weekend 3 

 And 4 day 80m😉🦝

 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Ok i'll put it another way. Do you think when we reach 25 years after AVATAR, there will be over 50 2bil movies?.

Nope. The China card has already been played and the India card isn’t strong enough to do it again. I do think the number will get up into the 20-25 range though.

[stuart360]

Just now, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

Nope. The China card has already been played and the India card isn’t strong enough to do it again. I do think the number will get up into the 25-30 range though.

Thanks XXR, thats all i was getting at lol.

[M37]

Quote

I'm still (optimistically?) thinking we a see a similar run as Jumanji WTJ, which grossed $89M in its first full week (against TLJ) from Wed opening (12/20-26), then saw every day from 12/25 through 12/30 beat its opening Sat (12/23 $14.8M), and went to finish up over $400M (4.55x OWeek). A $30M first week for PiB and 4x would be ~$120M, but let's see if/how much it jumps up over this next week

 

On 12/21/2022 at 9:47 AM, M37 said:

Yeah, thinking Puss is going surprise some people, especially from Xmas day onward - really getting a Jumanji WTJ vibe here (for a few reasons).

 

Puss In Boots

First Four Days = $12.7M

Next Four Days = $25.9M

 

Probably doesn't have enough juice to break into the (vacant for over a year) $200M club like I had hoped pre-release, but is on a trajectory to make a run at $150M+

[The Dark Alfred]

It's due to China, as mentioned before. If you take China out, the numbers are vastly different. Point in case the reason for very few 1 billion hits since the pandemic as that market is in limbo.

 

@Sheldon Cr could you imagine if Cameron actually direct a Spidey flick? Now, THAT would a homecoming for the ages.

Edited December 29, 2022 by The Dark Alfred

[Legion Again]

The puss day doesn’t look great vs Chipwrecked tbh. Or Moana. It is earlier in the run but similar wed/mon as sing as well. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

15 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Ok i'll put it another way. Do you think when we reach 25 years after AVATAR, there will be over 50 2bil movies?.

We'd by lucky to have 10 by then. The rise of streaming, the CCP moving away from Hollywood and superhero fatigue have crippled exhibition far too much.

Edited December 29, 2022 by BadOlCatSylvester

[Juby]

25 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

It took 25 years from the first 1bil movie, to today where we have 52 bil movies.

We currently have 5 2bil movies since 2009. I bet its going to take waaay longer than 25 years to get to 50 2bil movies.

 

The Way of Water is the 51st film that has crossed $1 billion worldwide.

 

China and couple other markets growth + 3D and IMAXes (add a lot to the tickets prices). There's nothing new to increase box office nowadays, and in face of streaming / covid, I think many b.o. records and many $2b as well as $1b will slow down compared to the last 13 years. Without China not even MCU films will be able to attack $2b ww mark.

 

[ThomasNicole]

Honestly, while we all know the "2b to breakeven" thing is nonsense, it doesn't matter that everyone thinks that. 

 

The movie was looking good to actually do 2B for some days now, i would say is actually kinda probable at this point. 

 

In the end, Cameron is the winner, everyone misreads what he said and put stupidly high expectations just for him to achieve it. 

 

Just wait and this whole narrative will be dead by February.

[charlie Jatinder]

37 minutes ago, M37 said:

A $21M Wednesday?

 

Cuts the deficit to just over $20M, depending on actuals - first day of real separation from RO (other than Xmas) at +16-17%. Do wonder how much might be spillover (especially PLF) from pretty packed Sun/Mon/Tue, so won't be totally surprised if we see a marginally bigger drop than the -7% RO had for Thursday, or it could continue the flatter line as spillover continues, so -5-10% or $19-$20M expected

 

I said before this holiday week that expectations should be in range of -5% to +10% of RO, and last few days are definitely trending to the higher end of that range

Also can clearly see the impact of the storm last week on 12/22 & 12/23

 

lemme repost

[CaptNathanBrittles]

1 hour ago, grey ghost said:

2 billion is the new billion.

 

Remember when crossing a billion was a big deal?

 

Yeah, this summer.

[CJohn]

We had 3 billion dollar movies this year and none of them was from the MCU. Times have truly changed.

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, CJohn said:

We had 3 billion dollar movies this year and none of them was from the MCU. Times China has truly changed.

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

5 minutes ago, CJohn said:

We had 3 billion dollar movies this year and none of them was from the MCU. Times have truly changed.

Did any of the MCU ones have China? I don't recall but did Jurassic, Top Gun have China? Obvious Avatar does. 

 

Other thing, if there's a split with China and Hollywood isn't it possible that A3 does not get a China release especially because of the way things have recently gone with Disney and China? Did Spidey No Way Home have a China release?

[Factcheck]

6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

We had 3 billion dollar movies this year and none of them was from the MCU. Times have truly changed.

Because MCU solo movies were never a big thing, BP and CM were exceptions because of IW and Endgame.

[StreamBO]

1 minute ago, Factcheck said:

Because MCU solo movies were never a big thing, BP and CM were exceptions because of IW and Endgame.

Right. 

Edited December 29, 2022 by StreamBO

[M37]

25 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

The puss day doesn’t look great vs Chipwrecked tbh. Or Moana. It is earlier in the run but similar wed/mon as sing as well. 

Much smaller Tue discount day effect in 2011 vs Chipwrecked, but the Sing comp is one to watch (though I think there are some demographic differences that make it imperfect)

 

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Did any of the MCU ones have China? I don't recall but did Jurassic, Top Gun have China? Obvious Avatar does. 

 

Other thing, if there's a split with China and Hollywood isn't it possible that A3 does not get a China release especially because of the way things have recently gone with Disney and China? Did Spidey No Way Home have a China release?

JW had China, Top Gun didn't.

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

JW had China, Top Gun didn't.

Did No Way Home have it?

 

Given how much China boosts WW totals for tentpoles, isn't it more interesting to compare WW sans China when another tentpole didn't get a release in China? As in, what are the WW totals this for every film excluding numbers in China.

[CJohn]

4 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Did No Way Home have it?

 

Given how much China boosts WW totals for tentpoles, isn't it more interesting to compare WW sans China when another tentpole didn't get a release in China? As in, what are the WW totals this for every film excluding numbers in China.

NWH didn't have China either.