Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!

[Dale Cooper]

18 minutes ago, M37 said:

There is clearly (bordering on absurdly) not

 

To make this as easy to digest as possible: if Avatwo would to track exactly like the original Avatar from this point forward, it would still "only" finish at around $825M. Meanwhile, for the highest grossing films at the turn of the calendar each year since 2011 (11 titles), only 2 (maybe 3) would offer a trajectory that would wind up above $550M (TFA and NWH, that latter being a bit COVID skewed and is best not to use as a comp, with the third being perhaps MI: Ghost Protocol depending on how high this next week goes)

 

Be excited about the recent upswing by all means, but let's please try to keep some perspective here

 

Well, I don't really think it's going to do it. I'm just saying it could do it. I don't think it's possible to just get 550m at this point. It would have to drastically change trajectory from here on to do so, and let's not forget that Rogue One had much more competition than The Way of Water through January.

 

Also, the bolded is not really true. If it performs exactly similar from the second Wednesday (that is 10% higher) it's going to end up with....870m

 

Edited December 30, 2022 by Dale Cooper

[stuart360]

Ignore

Edited December 30, 2022 by stuart360

[shruth]

i would bet my first child that this will finish between 600-700

[Dale Cooper]

33 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

I would disagree. Right now, $600m seems the upper range of where it will land. Like i said, unless it does some crazy increase this weekend and drops less than 30% next couple weeks.

Higher is just relative. I think, barring external factors, there is 0% chance for it to stop with 550m. I would at least think it's a non-zero possibility to reach 870m. Not really worth talking about, though. My point was never to say that it was probable to reach that, just comparably more.

[M37]

2 minutes ago, Dale Cooper said:

Well, I don't really think it's going to do it. I'm just saying it could do it. I don't think it's possible to just get 550m at this point. It would have to drastically change trajectory from here on to do so, and let's not forget that Rogue One had much more competition than The Way of Water through January.

 

 

One of those scenarios can be reasonably - albeit pessimistically - made, while the other cannot be reached even with the most optimistic projections, so claim the latter has a higher probability is just flatly incorrect

[stuart360]

8 minutes ago, shruth said:

i would bet my first child that this will finish between 600-700

I mean its going to be around 440mil after this weekend, probably around 500mil by the end of next weekend, and will need 100mil off a 30-40mil weekend to hit 600mil. I mean that would be bog standard legs, and A2's none holiday legs will probaby be better than 'bog standard'.

 

600-650mil is probably the range with standard legs, with an outside chance at 700 imo.

Edited December 30, 2022 by stuart360

[Dale Cooper]

11 minutes ago, M37 said:

One of those scenarios can be reasonably - albeit pessimistically - made, while the other cannot be reached even with the most optimistic projections, so claim the latter has a higher probability is just flatly incorrect

Let's agree to disagree about that, because this is actually not really worth discussing as both these numbers are, at the very least, highly unlikely to come true.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Dale Cooper

[jedijake]

9 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

I mean its going to be around 440mil after this weekend, probably around 500mil by the end of next weekend, and will need 100mil off a 30-40mil weekend to hit 600mil. I mean that would be bog standard legs, and A2's none holiday legs will probaby be better than 'bog standard'.

 

600-650mil is probably the range with standard legs, with an outside chance at 700 imo.

By Sunday or Monday?

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, jedijake said:

By Sunday or Monday?

 

Monday.

[stuart360]

1 minute ago, jedijake said:

By Sunday or Monday?

Monday.

[Fanboy]

Worst case this weeknd:

Friday: 20M (-1%)
Saturday: 14M (-30%)
Sunday: 16M (+14%)

51M 2nd weekend (-19.5%) 

Best case this weekend: 

Friday: 25M (+24%) 
Saturday: 21M (-16%)
Sunday:  28M (+33%)

74M 2nd weekend (+17%)

Split it down the middle and you get 62.5M second weekend (-1.5%) which is reasonable. I'm thinking 62M. My prediction: 

Friday: 23M (+14%)
Saturday: 17M (-26%)
Sunday: 22M (+29%)

62M second weekend(-2.2%). That would be an excellent number. 

[setna]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

Has a third weekend increase over the 2nd ever happened for anything over the $50m mark? 
 

I know A1 came close, but not quite. 

Titanic adjusted did it in its 9th!!

[LinksterAC]

4 hours ago, XXR M37's Club Is Dead said:

Perhaps not but there’s definitely nothing in the numbers we’ve gotten the last 4 days that suggest the 2nd weekend was missing “10 or 20 million”.

Unless you're inclined, as I am, to think that unmet weekend demand moves to the next weekend rather than later in the week.

 

Obviously offset by the holidays--but I don't think completely.

[Godzilla]

People love to say that Avatar doesn't have a crazy fanbase like Star Wars or Marvel. But I think in these times that's a benefit to the franchise. People are getting turned off by franchises like Star Wars or MCU because of their crazed fanbase. We Avatar fans aren't obsessive. We love seeing James Cameron vision on screen and we let Avatar wash all over us like an experience. Yes we recognize some flaws like the occasional clunky dialogue but we don't nitpick it because we view Avatar movies as a whole. 

[LinksterAC]

Just now, Godzilla said:

People love to say that Avatar doesn't have a crazy fanbase like Star Wars or Marvel. But I think in these times that's a benefit to the franchise. People are getting turned off by franchises like Star Wars or MCU because of their crazed fanbase. We Avatar fans aren't obsessive. We love seeing James Cameron vision on screen and we let Avatar wash all over us like an experience. Yes we recognize some flaws like the occasional clunky dialogue but we don't nitpick it because we view Avatar movies as a whole. 

Yeah, Fourth of July fireworks don't have crazy fanbases either, but everyone still goes & watches them.

 

There's something to be said for something that has broad warm (not raging hot) appeal.

[Deep Wang]

5 minutes ago, Godzilla said:

People love to say that Avatar doesn't have a crazy fanbase like Star Wars or Marvel. But I think in these times that's a benefit to the franchise. People are getting turned off by franchises like Star Wars or MCU because of their crazed fanbase. We Avatar fans aren't obsessive. We love seeing James Cameron vision on screen and we let Avatar wash all over us like an experience. Yes we recognize some flaws like the occasional clunky dialogue but we don't nitpick it because we view Avatar movies as a whole. 

 

[Mulder]

I think the core issue is so many Avatar fans on here had a weird like superiority complex here over box office numbers so now that it's not going to do their insane out of this world predictions of a billion domestic and three billion worldwide they're falling back on some insane idea that the big insane legs are coming 'any day now' instead of just being happy that the film's looking likely to hit 2 billion (An insane metric still) and could very possibly pass 600 million. I knew this was coming though after none of them admitted they were wrong about Alita.

[IronJimbo]

4 minutes ago, Mulder said:

I think the core issue is so many Avatar fans on here had a weird like superiority complex here over box office numbers so now that it's not going to do their insane out of this world predictions of a billion domestic and three billion worldwide they're falling back on some insane idea that the big insane legs are coming 'any day now' instead of just being happy that the film's looking likely to hit 2 billion (An insane metric still) and could very possibly pass 600 million. I knew this was coming though after none of them admitted they were wrong about Alita.

You think I should lowball the legs because I should be happy with the number. I'll go with what I think it will make thanks. Domestic legs are already great, and rogue one's legs were also great (until it's 4th week).

 

"could very possibly pass 600 million!" you should join M37's club if that's what you think.

 

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

You think I should lowball the legs because I should be happy with the number. I'll go with what I think it will make thanks. Domestic legs are already great, and rogue one's legs were also great (until it's 4th week).

 

"could very possibly pass 600 million!" you should join M37's club if that's what you think.

 

Except multiple people have explained to you why that happening is incredibly unlikely. 

[IronJimbo]

still no one talks about rewatchability, Jim's not so secret secret power and the reason the first Avatar is the best selling blu-ray of all time.