New Years Weekend Thread || Dec. 30-Jan. 1 || ATWOW $67.4M 3rd WE - $88.8M 4-Day WE — Orange Panther $22.6M 4-Day!

[Mr Roark]

2 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

Should have matched 68M of Aatar. Unhappy.

Overseas number is good. 

Was hoping 1.5B WW by Monday, but now have to wait 2 more days. 

Oh well. 

It will smash $1.5B 4 days faster than NWH (maybe even 5) even tho it took 2 more days to hit $1B.

The definition of a disappointment.

 

LOL

[Brainbug]

Avatar 2's OS run so far is amazing though im honestly astonished and bewildered that Germany puts up such good numbers, it doesnt feel right

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

This is true but above 650M is literally ... a wall. Avatar 2 cant prossibly exceed that number, its mathematically not possible.

I think you mean 653.4mil Brainbug.😉

[M37]

 

While I won't say Avatwo is a "family movie" in the traditional sense of the term, but having a more casual/less fan rush audience and a loooong running time that skews sales to earlier showings, it may start to behave more like a family movie than the SW/MCU comps that kinda fit over the first ~12 days. Interestingly, it has tracked MUCH closer to Sing's 2016 post-xmas daily pattern than the rocket-like break from RO

 

Which is to say we may see a smaller NYD bump here, more in the 10-15% range (evening sales after 4/5p look kinda soft in some spot checking, even for PLF). One other nugget: though they get there via slightly different patterns, both +25% of RO and +40% of Sing - the gap over the last 3-4 days - would project out to another $57-$58M by Thursday [~$100M week / $458M total]

[Gkalaitza]

17 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

This is true but above 650M is literally ... a wall. Avatar 2 cant prossibly exceed that number, its mathematically not possible.

I mean its  improbable based on the variables and past comps we are dealing with that arent exactly mathematical or scientific data. There is always uncertainty and uniqueness that can come into play for each movie and each run and even 3 weeks in. After all A2 DOM run has had ups and downs. Yeah it will most likely not do ~700m but  impossible is way too strong of a word. We arent at Feb 1 with a 565m DOM gross in our hands were all probablities for a 650m run is exausted.

 

Its 170m behind NWH at the same point in time. It grosses exactly the same from now onwards which is far from impossible tho maybe not likely you have 635m . Doing better gets you at 650m. Still far from impossible even if i wouldnt bet on it

Edited January 1, 2023 by Gkalaitza

[Borobudur]

18 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

Should have matched 68M of Aatar. Unhappy.

Overseas number is good. 

Was hoping 1.5B WW by Monday, but now have to wait 2 more days. 

Oh well. 

Last week Disney projected a $21m from CD but actual put the number at $29m

 

Again this week project another $21m for NY day so the actual will come to $29m too! $71m then!  

[Gkalaitza]

5 minutes ago, Gkalaitza said:

I mean its  improbable based on the variables and past comps we are dealing with that arent exactly mathematical or scientific data. There is always uncertainty and uniqueness that can come into play for each movie and each run and even 3 weeks in. After all A2 DOM run has had ups and downs. Yeah it will most likely not do ~700m but  impossible is way too strong of a word. We arent at Feb 1 with a 565m DOM gross in our hands were all probablities for a 650m run is exausted.

 

Its 170m behind NWH at the same point in time. It grosses exactly the same from now onwards which is far from impossible tho maybe not likely you have 635m . Doing better gets you at 650m. Still far from impossible even if i wouldnt bet on it

ah i get it, dinos

[Brainbug]

Just now, Gkalaitza said:

ah i get it, dinos

 

I confess i should probably stop this, since we still dont have a clear sarcasm symbol here.

 

In all honesty, 600M for Avatar 2 is locked imo and it should land in the 640 - 700M range. For 700M+, it would need amazing January holds and until we see them, i personally woudnt predict them to come as i dont think WOM is strong enough for Avatar 1-like holds going forward. 

[Alex SciChannel]

Puss in Boots. Over/Under 300M WW?

[stuart360]

6 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I confess i should probably stop this, since we still dont have a clear sarcasm symbol here.

 

In all honesty, 600M for Avatar 2 is locked imo and it should land in the 640 - 700M range. For 700M+, it would need amazing January holds and until we see them, i personally woudnt predict them to come as i dont think WOM is strong enough for Avatar 1-like holds going forward. 

The forum really needs a sarcastic smilie, a kappa one, and a indifferent one.

[stuart360]

4 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Puss in Boots. Over/Under 300M WW?

Probably under i would think, but regradless what it ends with will still be a fantastic number and turnaround after those awful first few days.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

38 minutes ago, Maggie said:

January 3rd will tell the story. How much are we predicting for that date? 10M?

7-8

[Andreas]

26 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

I think you mean 'regardless' of China right?. If China wasnt covid ravaged we would be looking at 1.8-1.9bil International take.

 

As for domestic, A2 will be around the 500mil range off a 30-40mil 4th weekend. The legs would have to be awful to miss 600mil.

No, I mean 'thanks' to China. The OS-C gross as of Sunday is $803M and the Holiday Season is over. This movie's chances of getting to $1.4B OS-C are minimal.

 

34 minutes ago, Firepower said:

It seems you really want to downplay the results for some reason.

Downplaying the result? As in a WW total under $2B would be something disappointing? Any movie that makes this kind of money is a success story, and your deduction based on what I've said is illogical.

 

29 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:

Yep. There’s a bunch of people inhere that desperately wants to go back to 10 days ago when ~$1.7B seemed the final number. The reason? Unknown.

I'd say there's a bigger bunch of people in here that desperately want to go back to 20+ days ago when numbers like $3B and even $4B were thrown around. There's nothing to suggest that this movie will go above $650M DOM, and there are comps to suggest that $600M DOM are not locked yet.

 

My prediction was and remained $2B WW.

[RascarCapat]

$18,956,000 for monday on BOM.

[stuart360]

8 minutes ago, Andreas said:

No, I mean 'thanks' to China. The OS-C gross as of Sunday is $803M and the Holiday Season is over. This movie's chances of getting to $1.4B OS-C are minimal.

 

 

Its almost hit 1bil International off a 181mil weekend (it will hit 1bil international with Mondays take).

To miss 1.4bil International would mean pretty terrible legs to be honest.

1.6bil International is probably the floor.

 

EDIT. Its International take is 961mil as of Sunday, not 803mil.

 

EDIT. 2. Oh you're not including China's gross for some reason. I dont see what getting to 1.4bil wihtout China has to do with anything. Does China not count or something?

Edited January 1, 2023 by stuart360

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

3 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Its almost hit 1bil International off a 181mil weekend (it will hit 1bil international with Mondays take).

To miss 1.4bil International would mean pretty terrible legs to be honest.

1.6bil International is probably the floor.

 

EDIT. Its International take is 961mil as of Sunday, not 803mil.

 

And the overseas weekend is $186.7 M.

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

And the overseas weekend is $186.7 M.

Even better.

Its intrnational number next weekend will 100% be over 100mil, possibly by quite a lot too.

Edited January 1, 2023 by stuart360

[ThomasNicole]

The 10% drop projection for Monday seems excessive 

 

I think SUN will grow from 21 to 22 - 22.5 

And then MON will be 20.5-21M instead of less than 19M 

 

Amazing weekend regardless, 600M very likely

[chaos]

Cameron is here to defy BO projection. He always did.  History repeats itself 

Anything under 2B WW would really surprise me and I am expecting much(?) more

+ German and Austrian (where I am from)  3rd weekends are to become huge like only Avatar 1 could pull off - and the WOM is stellar too.

 

Its an "all family" event like we haven't seen in 13 Years and people honor that..