New Years Weekend Thread || Dec. 30-Jan. 1 || ATWOW $67.4M 3rd WE - $88.8M 4-Day WE — Orange Panther $22.6M 4-Day!

[M37]

21 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

TFA post New years Tuesday (day 19) = 7.967m (-73% previous week)

 

NWH post new years tuesday (day 19) = 5.9m  (-72.3% previous week)

 

Rogue One with exact same calendar configuration = 6.27m (-72.2% from previous week

 

why wouldn't 10-11 be considered a really good number?

To be clear, it would be a good number … only it would be the latest in a string of good days, and because the last few days leading up to Tue are more relevant than last week, it’s IMO what should be expected (based on the daily cadence of Jan 2017 with same calendar)

[Tokugennumataka]

There are too many variables even while using similar calender configuration imo. In 2017, Fri/Sat/Sun amount to around +60/+50/-32 for the Top 10 while in 2012, it was much larger (+129/+50/-44). Good chance Avatwo doesn't follow either patterns but a hybrid pattern like NWH last year.

[Legion Again]

24 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

dailies would be closer to 20 now but it probably was around 8 ish during XMAS weekend. 

Still these are just estimates, need to get actuals. On high end my be C$50m.

Ah cool I was thinking like C$43-48 

[oenri]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

To be clear, it would be a good number … only it would be the latest in a string of good days, and because the last few days leading up to Tue are more relevant than last week, it’s IMO what should be expected (based on the daily cadence of Jan 2017 with same calendar)

It will literally be the highest 3rd tuesday of all time lol ..

[Tokugennumataka]

7 minutes ago, oenri said:

It will literally be the highest 3rd tuesday of all time lol ..

Again, they're saying it's a great number but that should be expected because it's been performing that well for the past 8 or 9 days and calendar comps give those numbers.

Edited January 4, 2023 by Tokugennumataka

[friedAmobo]

15 minutes ago, M37 said:

To be clear, it would be a good number … only it would be the latest in a string of good days, and because the last few days leading up to Tue are more relevant than last week, it’s IMO what should be expected (based on the daily cadence of Jan 2017 with same calendar)

 

I don't see how $10M/-59% can be the number that is expected considering the closest comp is Rogue One dropping -72.2%. If anything, the string of good days A2 has had could be signaling that it might indeed have some good legs in front of it.

[JustLurking]

2 minutes ago, friedAmobo said:

 

I don't see how $10M/-59% can be the number that is expected considering the closest comp is Rogue One dropping -72.2%. If anything, the string of good days A2 has had could be signaling that it might indeed have some good legs in front of it.

The Rogue One comp serves little purpose at this point since A2 has been leaving it in the dust for a week.

Edited January 4, 2023 by JustLurking

[GOGODanca]

2 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Again, they're saying it's a great number but that should be expected because it's been performing that well for the past 8 or 9 days and calendar comps give those numbers.

right but thats still a very good sign for legs that didn't fall off a cliff once holiday period ended

[Ronin46]

Uh oh. 2 new posters joined and back to back posts. I sense some "hot takes" coming in. 

[friedAmobo]

4 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

The Rogue One comp serves little purpose at this point since A2 has been leaving it in the dust for a week.

 

Well, it's more the point that even with A2 overtaking RO in the last week or so, the percentage drops are still better, so that's a positive sign for longer legs even with bigger absolute dollar figures.

 

2 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

Uh oh. 2 new posters joined and back to back posts. I sense some "hot takes" coming in.

 

Haha, fair enough. FWIW, I've been lurking here for a couple years, and I regularly post on the box office subreddit (which is how I found BOT to begin with). I'll try to keep my hot takes at a lukewarm temperature.

Edited January 4, 2023 by friedAmobo
Adding response to another poster in same message to not double post

[M37]

9 minutes ago, friedAmobo said:

 

I don't see how $10M/-59% can be the number that is expected considering the closest comp is Rogue One dropping -72.2%. If anything, the string of good days A2 has had could be signaling that it might indeed have some good legs in front of it.

Here are the week/week drops from Fri 12/30 through Tue 1/02

 

RO: -20%/-4%/-35%/-50%/-72%

A2: +29%/+21%/-16%/-34%/???

 

Now maybe put a * for Fri and Sat because of winter storm the previous week, but I don’t see any reason why those values would suddenly converge on Tue when Avatwo has been floating 15-20% better all week 

[keysersoze123]

If I do direct MTC1 comp with yesterday its looking like 12m tuesday !!!. I expect MTC1 ratio to be up today and so I feel around 11m tuesday is possible. I hope @charlie Jatinder comscore data confirms that. 

[upriser7]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

If I do direct MTC1 comp with yesterday its looking like 12m tuesday !!!. I expect MTC1 ratio to be up today and so I feel around 11m tuesday is possible. I hope @charlie Jatinder comscore data confirms that. 

what does MTC1 mean ?

[friedAmobo]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

Here are the week/week drops from Fri 12/30 through Tue 1/02

 

RO: -20%/-4%/-35%/-50%/-72%

A2: +29%/+21%/-16%/-34%/???

 

Now maybe put a * for Fri and Sat because of winter storm the previous week, but I don’t see any reason why those values would suddenly converge on Tue when Avatwo has been floating 15-20% better all week 

 

Sure, but I guess that's also my point, and perhaps I misunderstood your original post that I replied to. I think the underlying point is that Avatwo (lol, haven't heard that one until now) has been legging out better than RO and seemingly gaining steam, which bodes well for its post-holiday legs. If you were saying that based on its outpacing of RO in the same stretch that this lighter drop should expected, then I would agree. I think both myself and the other person who replied to you about the same comment interpreted the original comment as you saying that the number was only good because the days before it were good and not because A2 is showing some signs of strong legs (for at least a few days now).

 

2 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

what does MTC1 mean ?

 

MTC = Major Theater Chain. I'll drop a link to a post explaining this stuff from... wow, that post is over a decade old now. Can't be sure how much of it holds true but basically some people track ticket sales MTCs and extrapolate estimates from that.

 

 

Edited January 4, 2023 by friedAmobo
Replying to another poster again, avoiding double post

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, upriser7 said:

what does MTC1 mean ?

mtc 1

[keysersoze123]

Just now, upriser7 said:

what does MTC1 mean ?

 

Spoiler

Biggest Major Theater Chain. You can guess what this is stateside :-) We dont talk about it literally for obvious reasons. Previously our data was quoted to theater twitter threads !!!

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

 

  Hide contents

We dont talk about it literally for obvious reasons.

 

 

can you expand on what those obvious reasons might be?

[keysersoze123]

I am feeling good about this hitting 4x multi sometime next week !!! @M37 debbie downer club done by MLK weekend as well. 

[charlie Jatinder]

 

new sticker. 

 

I want

TONY eye roll. 
Cricket man.

Leo in Django.

Leo in OUaTiH.

Edited January 4, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[Sheldon Cr]

12 hours ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Not enough Puss in Boots on here. That's why we didn't get to 100 pages. 🤨 🗡🐈👢

 

 

Meoow?