Weekdays (03-05 Jan, 2023) Thread. | Talk about the New York Giants in here!

[Flamengo81]

I think for today anything in the 7M range is good and in the 8M range is great. I personally think it will land in the 7.5/8M, but I might be a little optmistic...

[oenri]

Avatar is not dropping more than 40%. People here are still underestimating James Cameron lol sorry but surpassing top gun is the floor for this movie, its legs are massive. Just dont bet against James Cameron, people never learn.

Edited January 4, 2023 by oenri

[titanic2187]

1 minute ago, friedAmobo said:

 

Indeed, I'm seeing 26 positive reviews and 1 negative one so far on Rotten Tomatoes. Unfortunately for it, even an overperformance from it and an underperformance from Avatar 2 still won't get it the #1 spot this weekend. Probably going to be a $20M OW from M3GAN (+/- $5M?) and at most a -60% drop for Avatar 2, which is still good for $27M (and it'll probably drop a decent bit less than -60%).

By right M3GAN should be able to coexist well with Avatar 2 and PIB2. The past New year weekend only generated $103m total gross from all movies. If including Monday, that gross was still at $135m. This is still far below from the highest single weekend in 2022 at $215m.  

 

More, TGM faced JWD and lost all its PLF in its 3rd weekend but still garnered >$50m. So it is not too much to have A2 to drop lower facing a smaller competitor.  

[GOGODanca]

also PiB competing with a2 for family audiences,m3gan has a different demo

[oenri]

Remember after opening weeknd, the low predictions? lol As I said, surpassing Top gun is the minimuim this movie will achieve, learn to no bet against James Cameron.

[AnDr3s]

m3gan is for a different audience, nothing to worry about

there's one scene in m3gan that's gonna be memed as hell we'll see if it gets legs because of that or it gets the morbius treatment

[AnDr3s]

530m predictions were funny

[kayumanggi]

 

[shruth]

6 minutes ago, AnDr3s said:

530m predictions were funny

i mean the run before christmas was looking kinda slow. it completely did a 180 after that so in hindsight yes but before that I guess it made sense. I think the main factor here is people only want to watch on IMAX 3D and dolby ect so they waited and waited till they got a chance to. Many are still waiting, so TGM is going down I fear. 

Edited January 4, 2023 by shruth

[The GOAT]

[IronJimbo]

8 minutes ago, shruth said:

i mean the run before christmas was looking kinda slow. it completely did a 180 after that so in hindsight yes but before that I guess it made sense. I think the main factor here is people only want to watch on IMAX 3D and dolby ect so they waited and waited till they got a chance to. Many are still waiting, so TGM is going down I fear. 

strange use of language? why would you not want Avatar 2 to take down TGM??

[Eric Prime]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

Will Babylon and Whitney have gigantic theatre count drops from Thursday onwards? Or do you think cinemas will have to wait til the following weekend to really get rid?

No to Whitney, likely for Babylon. Of the 17 places I track in Philly, Babylon's leaving 6 theaters, while Whitney's only leaving 1. And even then, some of the theaters that still host Babylon only have one showtime, so it's debatable if they even count. Whitney's definitely getting dumped next week when three wide releases hit though.

[shruth]

avatar 2's day 1-10: 231,840,115

avatar 2 day 10-20: 225,498,576

 

avatar 1's day 1-10: 188,463,503

avatar 1 day 10-20: 179,073,182

 

holiday legs were just as good as originals. no non cameron movie can compare

[Grebacio]

Which Box Office runs are you looking foward the most this year? Not necesarily because you think they will be the biggest ones, but also beacuse you think they are wild cards, or because you think they are key for the future of the industry, or for whatever other reason. 
Mines are:
1. Super Mario Bros: Big IP + Ilumination's Agressive Marekting + Empty April. I've seen some a wide range of predictions on this site, some saying it will be the highest grossing animted movie since 2019 and others saying it will be Detective Pikachu 2.0. I'm leaning towards the more optimistic side.
2. Indiana Jones: IMO what it will be the highest grossing movie of 2023 domestically. Can this be a mini TFA? The previous Indy made 317M Dom and was the 3rd highest grosser of 2008, only behind of Iron Man and TDK
3. Dune Part 2: We couldn't see Dune's full potential at the box office at 2021 due to the HBO Max day and date strategy. The fisrt entry was a major contender at awards, so this should see a significant jump, right? 
4. Elemental/Wish: After Chapek's questionable treatment of animation during this last 3 years, and with Bob Iger back as CEO, can Disney make a comeback or is already too late?
5. Oppenheimer: The test of non-IP adult dramas.
6. The Flash: The long awaited DC movie finally comes this June. Word is that WoM from test screenings is superb and this is easily the biggest DC event sice Justice League, yet the behind the scenes controversies and the uncertainity of DC future will definitly hurt this.
7. Barbie: Ever since the casting announcements, social media has been hyping it. However social media buzz doesn't always translate into real $$$ and both leads had several bombs the last years.
8. Transformers Rise of The Beasts: The Last Knight killed the Bayverse, and Bumblebee while it was well recieved, was still and underperformer. Was Bumblebee paying for the sins of the father, or there's not much interest in Transformers anymore?
9. Mission Impossible: While I don't think it will be the juggernaut that TGM was, I do expect some possitive impact from that movie

EXTRA: Avatar 2023's run

[Eric Prime]

9 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Which Box Office runs are you looking foward the most this year? Not necesarily because you think they will be the biggest ones, but also beacuse you think they are wild cards, or because you think they are key for the future of the industry, or for whatever other reason. 
Mines are:
1. Super Mario Bros: Big IP + Ilumination's Agressive Marekting + Empty April. I've seen some a wide range of predictions on this site, some saying it will be the highest grossing animted movie since 2019 and others saying it will be Detective Pikachu 2.0. I'm leaning towards the more optimistic side.
2. Indiana Jones: IMO what it will be the highest grossing movie of 2023 domestically. Can this be a mini TFA? The previous Indy made 317M Dom and was the 3rd highest grosser of 2008, only behind of Iron Man and TDK
3. Dune Part 2: We couldn't see Dune's full potential at the box office at 2021 due to the HBO Max day and date strategy. The fisrt entry was a major contender at awards, so this should see a significant jump, right? 
4. Elemental/Wish: After Chapek's questionable treatment of animation during this last 3 years, and with Bob Iger back as CEO, can Disney make a comeback or is already too late?
5. Oppenheimer: The test of non-IP adult dramas.
6. The Flash: The long awaited DC movie finally comes this June. Word is that WoM from test screenings is superb and this is easily the biggest DC event sice Justice League, yet the behind the scenes controversies and the uncertainity of DC future will definitly hurt this.
7. Barbie: Ever since the casting announcements, social media has been hyping it. However social media buzz doesn't always translate into real $$$ and both leads had several bombs the last years.
8. Transformers Rise of The Beasts: The Last Knight killed the Bayverse, and Bumblebee while it was well recieved, was still and underperformer. Was Bumblebee paying for the sins of the father, or there's not much interest in Transformers anymore?
9. Mission Impossible: While I don't think it will be the juggernaut that TGM was, I do expect some possitive impact from that movie

EXTRA: Avatar 2023's run

Creed 3, Mario, Little Mermaid, Indy, Oppenheimer, Barbie, Dune 2, Songbirds, Wonka. Two of them are for "my bae" reasons, others just seem like they have something really special going for them, and a couple others because they could do anything from flop to explode and not surprise me (Barbie, Songbirds)

[stuart360]

A2 sould be around 1.65-1.68bil WW by the end of the coming weekend.

Anyone think its possible to hit 2bil WW by the end of Jan?.

It looks like a long shot but possible imo.

[wildphantom]

Elemental is a massive tester for whether Iger and co can make a recovery after the Chapek debacle.  How do you encourage your audience to come see something you’ve schooled them into expecting at home for nothing six weeks later? 
 

Will Disney just release it without making any sounds as to whether they’re changing tact? I just don’t know. 
But the fact we have other studios doing better and making more money with their animated films over the kings of the medium? This can’t go on like it has been without them addressing it somehow. 

Edited January 4, 2023 by wildphantom

[Alex SciChannel]

 

[Flamengo81]

16 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Which Box Office runs are you looking foward the most this year? Not necesarily because you think they will be the biggest ones, but also beacuse you think they are wild cards, or because you think they are key for the future of the industry, or for whatever other reason. 
Mines are:
1. Super Mario Bros: Big IP + Ilumination's Agressive Marekting + Empty April. I've seen some a wide range of predictions on this site, some saying it will be the highest grossing animted movie since 2019 and others saying it will be Detective Pikachu 2.0. I'm leaning towards the more optimistic side.
2. Indiana Jones: IMO what it will be the highest grossing movie of 2023 domestically. Can this be a mini TFA? The previous Indy made 317M Dom and was the 3rd highest grosser of 2008, only behind of Iron Man and TDK
3. Dune Part 2: We couldn't see Dune's full potential at the box office at 2021 due to the HBO Max day and date strategy. The fisrt entry was a major contender at awards, so this should see a significant jump, right? 
4. Elemental/Wish: After Chapek's questionable treatment of animation during this last 3 years, and with Bob Iger back as CEO, can Disney make a comeback or is already too late?
5. Oppenheimer: The test of non-IP adult dramas.
6. The Flash: The long awaited DC movie finally comes this June. Word is that WoM from test screenings is superb and this is easily the biggest DC event sice Justice League, yet the behind the scenes controversies and the uncertainity of DC future will definitly hurt this.
7. Barbie: Ever since the casting announcements, social media has been hyping it. However social media buzz doesn't always translate into real $$$ and both leads had several bombs the last years.
8. Transformers Rise of The Beasts: The Last Knight killed the Bayverse, and Bumblebee while it was well recieved, was still and underperformer. Was Bumblebee paying for the sins of the father, or there's not much interest in Transformers anymore?
9. Mission Impossible: While I don't think it will be the juggernaut that TGM was, I do expect some possitive impact from that movie

EXTRA: Avatar 2023's run

I am putting a lot of faith in Mario's run. I really think this could be a 1b dollar movie.

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

I am putting a lot of faith in Mario's run. I really think this could be a 1b dollar movie.

I saw the Mario trailer twice in IMAX 3D and it looks really nice in it.

 

They actually put effort into making the 3D look good, much respect.