Weekend Thread - Jan 27th-29th | Estimates - Avatar 15.7, Puss 10.6, Otto 6.75, M3GAN 6.37, Pathaan 5.95 | The Way of Water is the fourth-biggest movie of all time! Eleventh DOM! Zoe Saldana the GOAT

[Krissykins]

7 minutes ago, Godzilla said:

Maybe Avatar will be #1 again next weekend if Knock at the Cabin underperforms. 

I think it has a better chance of being #3 than it does #1. 

[Danhjpn]

3 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Don't forget the past mid-week was heavily inflated by some lunar new year boost, although we all know China offset that bump.

Only some countries have lunar new year holiday

[Eric the Minion]

30 minutes ago, M37 said:

So EEAAO in a re-release - 45th week overall - is estimated to have grossed on par with both Whale and Women Talking with the Oscar Bumps & expansions? Way above Banshees and Tár too

 

People are just less willing to pay for the heavier subject matter it appears. RIP to the theatrical Oscar season, completely a niche market now 

If they sold Sammy Fabelman and Lydia Tar action figures, it would have been a totally different story. Still half-convinced EEAAO made its coin because people thought it was a Marvel movie by mistake.

[upriser7]

Just now, Borobudur said:

 

Jan 27, 2023	1	$3,570,000	+147%	-24%	3,600	$992	$608,450,771	43
Jan 28, 2023	-	$7,840,000	+120%	-17%	3,600	$2,178	$616,290,771	44
Jan 29, 2023	-	$4,290,000	-45%	-29%	3,600	$1,192	$620,580,771	45

 

Saturday jump and Sunday drop is equally crazy. 

I think these numbers mostly make sense.. maybe Sunday could be slightly higher. Saturday jump as expected would be huge this weekend due to no NFL games on Saturday and Sunday drop will be high because it's the NFL Championship day (2nd biggest day of the year TV ratings wise, only behind Superbowl)

[Godzilla]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I think it has a better chance of being #3 than it does #1. 

Never underestimate Jimmy C.

[Joyous Legion]

2 minutes ago, Eric Slay said:

If they sold Sammy Fabelman and Lydia Tar action figures, it would have been a totally different story. Still half-convinced EEAAO made its coin because people thought it was a Marvel movie by mistake.

"From the producers who brought you Avengers:Endgame" factor was too strong.

[M37]

8 minutes ago, Sophia Jane said:

Disney lowballed almost every single week

Actual will going beyond 16m

I do think Sunday has room to grow, but maybe not by all that much. Last year the smallest drop in top 10 on Championship Sunday was -43% (West Side Story), with everything 5-10% worse than the prior week. Today's NFL games are going to attract a LOT of eyeballs starting at 3PM EST (I think 50M+ average, 60M+ at peak), which eats into pretty much every showing but those before maybe 1PM on the East Coast, and later evening on the W Coast after they finish

[druv10]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

I do think Sunday has room to grow, but maybe not by all that much. Last year the smallest drop in top 10 on Championship Sunday was -43% (West Side Story), with everything 5-10% worse than the prior week. Today's NFL games are going to attract a LOT of eyeballs starting at 3PM EST (I think 50M+ average, 60M+ at peak), which eats into pretty much every showing but those before maybe 1PM on the East Coast, and later evening on the W Coast after they finish

I agree. Maybe Sunday drops to low 40s instead of mid 40s but not a lot of room for growth on Sunday. After Super Bowl, Championship weekend is the most watched weekend in US.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Krissykins]

$146m for M3GAN after a $14.1m worldwide weekend. Excellent.

[filmlover]

The Russo Bros having success in producing while their actual post-Endgame projects have been greeted with apathy (Cherry, anyone?) is an example of "you win some, you lose some."

[M37]

49 minutes ago, Eric Slay said:

If they sold Sammy Fabelman and Lydia Tar action figures, it would have been a totally different story. Still half-convinced EEAAO made its coin because people thought it was a Marvel movie by mistake.

I know this comment was at least partially in jest, but I just think there is a clear audience preference for "fun" over quality on the theatrical side: becoming more of a pure entertainment experience. (If a film has both, it hits the relative jackpot, like TGM, EEAAO, Puss, and yes, even Avatwo). Its been a rough 3 years (or 6+, depending on perspective...), with enough downer real life circumstances that there's just no urge to actively seek out such content, or least not to overcome the hurdles of money and time commitment for theatrical viewing.

 

Stories of suffering are a harder sell when people have been through a collective trauma

 

 

Edited January 29, 2023 by M37

[Sophia Jane]

Biggest 7th weekend

1 Avatar 31.28m

2 Titanic 25.9m

3 Avatar:TWOW 15.7m

 

Edited January 29, 2023 by Sophia Jane

[CaptNathanBrittles]

3rd best non-holiday 7th weekend for AVATAR 2. No prizes for guessing what #1 and #2 are.

[Mr Roark]

1 minute ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

3rd best non-holiday 7th weekend for AVATAR 2. No prizes for guessing what #1 and #2 are.

Titanic’s $26M 25 years ago still blows my mind.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[M37]

7 minutes ago, Sophia Jane said:

Biggest 7th weekend

1 Avatar 31.28m

2 Titanic 25.9m

3 Home alone 25m

4 Avatar:TWOW 15.7m

5 Top gun maverick 15.5m

January

January

December (holiday)

January

JULY (and against Thor!)

 

Next weekend is probably the last chance Avatwo has to beat TGM for a weekend ($12.3M -20.6%), just not likely to match drops in the teens TGM had in late July and August

 

 

 

 

Edited January 29, 2023 by M37

[filmlover]

The success of A Man Called Otto (which is looking like it'll match Ticket to Paradise with a total in the mid-$60M range at least) shows that audiences will still arrive when the product is appealing to them. The Oscar movies that struggled this year would've faced marketing challenges even pre-pandemic.

[Sophia Jane]

Just now, M37 said:

January

January

January

January

JULY (and against Thor!)

 

Next weekend is probably the last chance Avatwo has to beat TGM for a weekend ($12.3M -20.6%), just not likely to match drops in the teens TGM had in late July and August

 

 

 

 

actually I found Home alone is holiday 7th weekend,so TWOW is 3rd best of all-time

[M37]

2 minutes ago, Sophia Jane said:

actually I found Home alone is holiday 7th weekend,so TWOW is 3rd best of all-time

Yeah, I forgot Home Alone was a November release, not December (already edited the post you quoted)