Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania — Weekend Thread | 105.5M 3-Day, 120M 4-Day

[vafrow]

After seeing this tonight, this is a movie that's hard to have any strong opinions about. It's not something I think people are running to recommend to friends, but also not warning anyone away.

 

It's legs will probably depend on how many people are just eager to get out to see a popcorn movie over the next few weeks, and if they're at all intrigued by the other options.

 

From a long term brand management, this is a movie that feels like it really needed more time to cook. Characters were all paper thin, and the dialogue could have used a big punch up. The world creation wasn't bad, but the whole fun of Antman is the size gags taking place in a real world environment. Doing that in a bizarre sci fi world just doesn't have the same impact.

 

I expect a big drop next week (~60%), but, I'd expect to stabilize well after that.

[YM!]

That is a great hold for Quantumania, despite the B CinemaScore. I assume it’s playing well with families as it could do 110m/125m for the three day/four day. 240-250m domestic seem right on the money for it and it’s enough even with OS underwhelming to do over Ant Man 1 WW but 2 is debatable.

[Ronin46]

8 minutes ago, vafrow said:

After seeing this tonight, this is a movie that's hard to have any strong opinions about. It's not something I think people are running to recommend to friends, but also not warning anyone away.

 

It's legs will probably depend on how many people are just eager to get out to see a popcorn movie over the next few weeks, and if they're at all intrigued by the other options.

 

From a long term brand management, this is a movie that feels like it really needed more time to cook. Characters were all paper thin, and the dialogue could have used a big punch up. The world creation wasn't bad, but the whole fun of Antman is the size gags taking place in a real world environment. Doing that in a bizarre sci fi world just doesn't have the same impact.

 

I expect a big drop next week (~60%), but, I'd expect to stabilize well after that.

 

Thor dropped 68% , DRSTR2 dropped 67, BP2 dropped 63 in there 2nd weekend. A 60% drop for ANTM3 would be great (around 43-44M) but think it will be more severe than that. Hopefully can hold at about 40M.

[Liiviig 1998]

12 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

pretty great Saturday and will have a great Sunday/Monday thanks to the holiday. 
Deadline’s article says that kids liked the movie more than the adult audiences, so maybe families will provide a bit of strength on this one. 
 

Interestingly the RT score has held at 84%. By now Eternals and Love and Thunder were decreasing.  

Weekend is inflated by holiday so expect big 60% + drop next weekend.

 

Even WF dropped 63% with A CS

 

As in regards to audience score it's higher than I thought it would be but post trak is more reliable.

 

Last I checked some sites

 

Letterboxd was 2.8

Allocine audience was 2.9

Film affinity was 5.9

 

User reviews have been pretty terrible for the most part.

 

In the end this will end up like Thor 4 box office wise where that ended up dissapointing and we were all like fine numbers but it could have been worse.

 

Box office should be 530-550ish and will make little profit for the studio but it could have been worse .

 

GOTG should be fine (800m+)

 

Next test is marvels and oh my nothing much is going for that movie. Let's see what marketing is like and reception is because sub 700m can happen even with china if reception is bad.

[CaptNathanBrittles]

IMDb ratings, though not perfect, are way more accurate than RT scores.

[GOGODanca]

1 minute ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

IMDb ratings, though not perfect, are way more accurate than RT scores.

verified audience score atleast makes sure its a ticket buyer reviewing it, on imdb anyone can review it whether they watched or not

[upriser7]

1 minute ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Weekend is inflated by holiday so expect big 60% + drop next weekend.

 

Even WF dropped 63% with A CS

 

As in regards to audience score it's higher than I thought it would be but post trak is more reliable.

 

Last I checked some sites

 

Letterboxd was 2.8

Allocine audience was 2.9

Film affinity was 5.9

 

User reviews have been pretty terrible for the most part.

 

In the end this will end up like Thor 4 box office wise where that ended up dissapointing and we were all like fine numbers but it could have been worse.

 

Box office should be 530-550ish and will make little profit for the studio but it could have been worse .

 

GOTG should be fine (800m+)

 

Next test is marvels and oh my nothing much is going for that movie. Let's see what marketing is like and reception is because sub 700m can happen even with china if reception is bad.

I don't think there is too much correlation between letterboxd scores and general audience reception. Thor L&T  also had 2.8 on letterboxd. Babylon has 3.9/5 on letterboxd. I feel like Letterboxd ratings align more closely with film bros/film twitter than general audience

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

34+

r/boxoffice users were losing their minds yesterday...I saw a lot of under $90M thrown around 

[Liiviig 1998]

11 minutes ago, YM! said:

That is a great hold for Quantumania, despite the B CinemaScore. I assume it’s playing well with families as it could do 110m/125m for the three day/four day. 240-250m domestic seem right on the money for it and it’s enough even with OS underwhelming to do over Ant Man 1 WW but 2 is debatable.

Nah it's not getting anywhere near 622m . Even 300m OS is far from guaranteed.

 

 

[John Marston]

It should drop hard but not a bad opening. Marvel has a strong  upfront audience that makes it hard for one of their movies to outright fail 

[TheFlatLannister]

47 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

maybe Marvel truly is too big to fail, even with terrible projects.

Domestically, yes. OS, not so much

 

[Dragoncaine]

What do we think is the target for GOTG3 dom OW, considering these solid projections for a poorly reviewed entry in the smallest MCU subfranchise?

[eddyxx]

1 hour ago, grey ghost said:

Vince McMahon wants to sell the WWE for 9 billion.

 

Some randoms are saying it's worth 6.5 billion. 

 

What do ya'll think?

Is he still selling it to the Saudi’s?

[GOGODanca]

1 minute ago, Dragoncaine said:

What do we think is the target for GOTG3 dom OW, considering these solid projections for a poorly reviewed entry in the smallest MCU subfranchise?

160m

[TheFlatLannister]

48 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Ofc this may look good but only a few know what it could have been. We are missing on a 150M FSS here.

 

PAPA Feige, get it together.

Feige is spread too thin. They've been pushing out so much content it's hard to have quality checks. The report about them scaling back seems to be true. Hopefully we see a noticeable difference in 2024 

[M37]

So 30 pages of MCU doom and gloom over the lack of quality …

 

… to the largest MCU TFri/Sat increase post-pandemic 

[eddyxx]

10 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

What do we think is the target for GOTG3 dom OW, considering these solid projections for a poorly reviewed entry in the smallest MCU subfranchise?

150-180m easily 

[TheFlatLannister]

8 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

What do we think is the target for GOTG3 dom OW, considering these solid projections for a poorly reviewed entry in the smallest MCU subfranchise?

$160-170M all contingent on reception ofc 

 

I could see $180M+ though with excellent reception and death spoilers fueling OW 

[KJsooner]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

34+

Marvel haters can stay quiet now. 🤫 

[stephanos13]

2 minutes ago, KJsooner said:

Marvel haters can stay quiet now. 🤫 

 

Literally more than 90% of people posting in the thread are going to see the movie in theaters. But yeah Marvel haters... 😄