How many 2023 movies will pass $100M?

[filmlover]

Surprised there didn't seem to be a thread for this beyond general discussion threads.

 

Last week the head of AMC said he predicted up to 30 movies would pass $100M this year (Adam Aron Couldn’t Stop Talking About Popcorn on AMC Q4 Earnings Call | IndieWire) but will he be right? Would be fun to guess how many movies will end up hitting the mark in this continued recovery year.

 

Ant-Man already gives us 1 and Creed will be passing the mark shortly to give us 2. M3GAN won't get there unfortunately unless the studio pulls double feature shenanigans with it over the next few months.

Edited March 6, 2023 by filmlover

[Jonwo]

30 seems like a realistic and achievable total, 

[YM!]

I’m also thinking 30 too.

[Grebacio]

Locked

1. Ant man

2. Creed

3. John Wick

4. Mario

5. Guardians

6. Fast X

7. Little Mermaid 

8. Spiderverse 

9.Transformers

10. The Flash

11. M:I Dead Reckoning

12. Indy 5

13. Dune

14. The Marvels

15. Aquaman 

 

Spoiler

Strong contenders (I think the ones in bold are gonna do it)

16. Scream VI
17. Shazam

18. Dungeons and Dragons 

19. The Boogeyman 

20. Elemental

21. Openheimer

22. Barbie

23. Haunted Mansion 

24. The Meg 2

25. Ninja Turtles 

26. Blue Beetle

27. Equalizer 3

28.The Nun 2

29. Kraven

30. Trolls 3

31. Hunger Games

32. Wish

33. Wonka

34. Ducks

 

RN,  I predict 28, but there could be a few surprises, so 30 is possible.

Edited March 6, 2023 by Grebacio

[filmlover]

I'm thinking among titles coming out for the rest of the year by month:

 

March: John Wick will do it and Scream is a strong contender depending on how big it opens and what its legs are like. Shazam! waiting until closer to release to get an idea. Dungeons & Dragons, nope. 1-3.

April: 1. Super Mario only.

May: the big 3 (Guardians, Fast, Little Mermaid), obviously

June: easily 5 (Spider-Man, Transformers, The Flash, Elemental, Indiana Jones). Possibly 6 if No Hard Feelings is a breakout.

July: Mission: Impossible is locked; not locked yet but very strong bets: Barbie, Oppenheimer, Haunted Mansion. 4.

August: Waiting for more movies from this month to start their marketing campaigns, but maybe Blue Beetle? Will make that 1 for now.

September: No idea. Both previous Equalizers barely hit $100M and the last one was five years ago, so might finish just shy of the mark this time. 0 for now.

October: Unlikely to be the final schedule, but if Dune or something else from November moves here that's easily 1. Waiting to see if Kraven is another Morbius. Doubt that Exorcist sequel does it, especially if it ends up of similar quality to Halloween Kills/Ends. Waiting to see actual footage from Gareth Edwards' True Love to have an idea of what to expect. 0 for now.

November: Unlikely to be final but for now based on the movies there I'll say 5 (Dune, The Marvels, Hunger Games, Trolls, Wish).

December: For now, 3 (Wonka, Ducks, Aquaman). Doubt The Color Purple makes it given recent performances of Broadway adaptations. Ghostbusters is likely not making this year with no casting/filming news.

 

So just shy of 30, depending on a bunch of unknowns and potential surprises.

Edited March 6, 2023 by filmlover

[Bob Train]

We're at 15 so far, maybe 30 is possible

[Flip]

I think 13 for the rest of the year, with The Creator and FNAF being touch and go

[LegionWrex]

So far we have:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

Creed III

Elemental

Fast X

The Flash

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

John Wick: Chapter 4

The Little Mermaid

Scream VI

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

The Super Mario Bros Movie

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

 

We still have several more to go, but I think we have some contenders:

Rest of July: Mission: Impossible, Barbie, and Oppenheimer are locks. Haunted Mansion is a maybe but I'm leaning towards yes.

 

August: Nothing set in stone. I think Mutant Mayhem has the biggest chance to be a breakout hit, and the first Meg made like $150M domestic so Meg 2 could absolutely do it. Blue Beetle will only do it if it gets really great reviews.

 

September: The Equalizer 3 is a possibility but I have no idea how that's going to play post-pandemic. Part of me is thinking The Creator could do it (and it's budget is relatively low for a film like this) but sci-fi is not an easy bet.

 

October: If Kraven plays like Venom, yes. If Kraven plays like Morbius, hell no. Going go out on a limb as well and already say Five Nights at Freddy's will do it. Exorcist is 50/50.

 

November: Dune: Part Two, The Marvels, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, and Trolls Band Together are probably all happening. My take on Wish is that it will either be a Strange World level disaster or make as much as something like Moana did. If it's the latter it will easily cross it.

 

December: Wonka and Aquaman will do it. Thinking Migration will as well. Maybe Ghostbusters if that does hit this year.

Edited July 9, 2023 by LegionWrex

[Bob Train]

Could Nun II do it? The first one did

[filmlover]

3 hours ago, Bob Train said:

Could Nun II do it? The first one did

Maybe since it'll be the first really high-profile horror movie since Insidious (not counting Haunted Mansion), though between weak reception to the first + 5 year gap it would be lucky to just barely hit it in all likelihood.

[Pinacolada]

I'm a broken record but Dungeons and Dragons not being able to cross $100m DOM after a $38m OW sucks so many Donkey Dicks

[Bob Train]

MI7 Barbie Oppenheimer will do it. I think Meg 2 and TMNT do it. Equalizer 3 can do it and Nun 2 can do it but neither are locks. I'm confident in FNAF doing it, Haunted Mansion is 50/50 IMO. Marvel Dune 2 Wish Aquaman 2 are locks, Trolls Migration Wonka Hunger Games are more likely than not. Ghostbusters will do it if released in 2023.

[Immortal]

At this rate Sound of Freedom also has an outside chance

[Grebacio]

On 3/6/2023 at 12:00 PM, Grebacio said:

Locked

1. Ant man

2. Creed

3. John Wick

4. Mario

5. Guardians

6. Fast X

7. Little Mermaid 

8. Spiderverse 

9.Transformers

10. The Flash

11. M:I Dead Reckoning

12. Indy 5

13. Dune

14. The Marvels

15. Aquaman 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Strong contenders (I think the ones in bold are gonna do it)

16. Scream VI
17. Shazam

18. Dungeons and Dragons 

19. The Boogeyman 

20. Elemental

21. Openheimer

22. Barbie

23. Haunted Mansion 

24. The Meg 2

25. Ninja Turtles 

26. Blue Beetle

27. Equalizer 3

28.The Nun 2

29. Kraven

30. Trolls 3

31. Hunger Games

32. Wish

33. Wonka

34. Ducks

 

RN,  I predict 28, but there could be a few surprises, so 30 is possible.

I had Flash as locked and it almost failed 

[tonytr87]

Thinking 28 at the moment, but if Sound of Freedom keeps legging we could see 29. 

[Bob Train]

Sound of Freedom has done it. 

[Avatree]

Will be 19 by the end of this weekend. I don't see any film making 100M until the Exorcist reboot at halloween. After that, there's Dune 2, Marvels, Hunger Games, Trolls 3, Wonka and Aquaman, which would make 26, minus 1-2 of those which get moved to next year.

 

I think 25 tops.

 

Glad we are getting barbenheimer weekend because the box office looks dire for the remainder of 2023.

 

Edited July 21, 2023 by Avatree

[Bob Train]

MI7

Barbie

Oppenheimer

Haunted Mansion

TMNT

Meg 2

Equalizer 3

Nun 2 (underestimate James Wan at your own peril)

FNAF

Dune 2 (if not delayed)

Marvels

Hunger Games

Wish

Wonka
Aquaman 

Ghostbusters (if not delayed)

Migration

The Color Purple
 

Comes out to 33, but I will subtract 2 due to possible delays so I'll say 31.

[stripe]

What about Killers of the Flower Moon? It could surprise and reach 100M

[filmlover]

14 minutes ago, stripe said:

What about Killers of the Flower Moon? It could surprise and reach 100M

Possibly. Marty + Leo + De Niro is one heck of a combo (even if the latter two don't promote it because of the strike) and Oppenheimer has proven there is an audience for adult-targeted fare at the theater in 2023 still. All depends on how big of a marketing push it's given since it's an Apple release (as is Napoleon) receiving theatrical runs to appease their filmmakers.