THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE WEEKEND THREAD

[interiorgatordecorator]

Despicable me 2, the other illumination movie with an A cs and a 5-day ow, went on to make 2.57 times its ow, in theory Mario should be more frontloaded 

Edited April 6, 2023 by interiorgatordecorator

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I've been following box office since I was 13 and I still never really understood something, if anyone's able to answer this who may have been older than me/following box office back at the time.

 

Twilight opened to 69M in 2008. Then all of a sudden the sequel comes out a year later and more than doubles its opening weekend. Did the franchise really see that much of a spike in popularity over 12 months? Wouldn't book fans have driven up sales of the first film? Kind of like Hunger Games/Catching Fire, there was a bit of a sequel bump there, but nothing like Twilight. And then every subsequent sequel after New Moon performed pretty much on par with New Moon (both domestic and overseas).

 

So, what happened in those 12 months? Why is the original such an outlier box office-wise?

Twilight reminds of a legendary poster called potatopassage who posted both on BOM and KJ forums and was uber fan. She started 1st twilight film > 300m at KJ and it was hilarious her posts and reactions. Though she was wrong, the sequel did come close to the potential. 

[spizzer]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

based on presales pattern 50m+ fri/sat are happening. I am thinking at least 185m over 5 days. 

 

Awesome.  So that's why Charlie tweeted >$175M maybe $200M.  It's performing like a 4-quad blockbuster for Fri/Sat presales.

[DAJK]

Just now, TheFlatLannister said:

Films tend to lead to a larger exposure compared to books which could be seen as niche (especially in the 21st century) 

 

Same reason why I think Across the Spiderverse could blow up big time because back in 2018 only hardcore Marvel/Spidey comic book fans knew who Miles was 

Right, but even that's an outlier for the YA book "genre".

 

Catching Fire pretty much stayed flat with the first Hunger Games.

 

Potter 2 and Maze Runner 2 decreased from the first.

 

Divergent decreased.

 

And then even other books that aren't part of the "YA" genre, or considered to be; Narnia decreased, Hobbit decreased, even LOTR didn't see massive increases from the first to the second.

[DisposedData]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

based on presales pattern 50m+ fri/sat are happening. I am thinking at least 185m over 5 days. 

500m Dom? 

[spizzer]

7 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I've been following box office since I was 13 and I still never really understood something, if anyone's able to answer this who may have been older than me/following box office back at the time.

 

Twilight opened to 69M in 2008. Then all of a sudden the sequel comes out a year later and more than doubles its opening weekend. Did the franchise really see that much of a spike in popularity over 12 months? Wouldn't book fans have driven up sales of the first film? Kind of like Hunger Games/Catching Fire, there was a bit of a sequel bump there, but nothing like Twilight. And then every subsequent sequel after New Moon performed pretty much on par with New Moon (both domestic and overseas).

 

So, what happened in those 12 months? Why is the original such an outlier box office-wise?

 

Felt like it was multiple converging factors.  I was in HS & on BOM back then and my memory of that time was that Potter 6 that summer really made midnight/rabid shows a thing for my age-group (as opposed to just a fanbase thing) and then that factor just ramped up further with NM later that year.

 

Then there was a bit of Lautner craze plus Edward v Jacob craze & early memeing.

 

Then there's the fact that I guess Twilight theatrical and later HV performance probably solidified its conversion to cinema in the eyes of the fanbase and so they were sold on the rest of the franchise.

 

A little bit of all of those I'd say.

[JayPrimetown]

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

based on presales pattern 50m+ fri/sat are happening. I am thinking at least 185m over 5 days. 

Wow. I really thought there would be a wave with kids seeing it Wednesday, talking about it with friends / school, and forcing parents to take them to it this weekend. 

 

If we see $50 Million+ both days, looking at a $125 Million 3 day. 

[grey ghost]

3 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

500m Dom? 

 

[yoknc]

Family movie during Easter holiday is no brainer.

[grey ghost]

12 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I've been following box office since I was 13 and I still never really understood something, if anyone's able to answer this who may have been older than me/following box office back at the time.

 

Twilight opened to 69M in 2008. Then all of a sudden the sequel comes out a year later and more than doubles its opening weekend. Did the franchise really see that much of a spike in popularity over 12 months? Wouldn't book fans have driven up sales of the first film? Kind of like Hunger Games/Catching Fire, there was a bit of a sequel bump there, but nothing like Twilight. And then every subsequent sequel after New Moon performed pretty much on par with New Moon (both domestic and overseas).

 

So, what happened in those 12 months? Why is the original such an outlier box office-wise?

 

I think I remember before Twillight came out people would casually brush it off but then after the first film there was a media blitz where everyone was either talking about it or sharing memes about it.

 

Maybe it drove up interest in the books and the Twillight craze spread like wildfire.

[Issac Newton]

1 hour ago, Flip said:

2x as many theaters as Weathering with You, encouraging.

I think it has a shot for $10M OW

[CaptainJackSparrow]

3 hours ago, grey ghost said:

While we wait for Wednesday estimates can we do our top 5 video game franchises?

 

Overwatch

Tetris

Mario Kart

Grand Theft Auto

Marvel 

Donkey Kong Country/64/Land

Call of Duty

Fallout

Dead Space

Pokemon

[kayumanggi]

36 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

based on presales pattern 50m+ fri/sat are happening. I am thinking at least 185m over 5 days. 

 

[DAJK]

I think people might be jumping the gun with video game adaptations and their box office viability. Sure, they could definitely be hits. But Mario’s performance has less to do with the fact that it’s a video game specifically, and more to do with the fact that Mario is one of the most recognizable characters and IPs to ever exist. Sure, I’m certain there will be sequels, and maybe some other big video game IPs will try their hand, but I’d be shocked if this was the start of a big “video game renaissance” in Hollywood.

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I think people might be jumping the gun with video game adaptations and their box office viability. Sure, they could definitely be hits. But Mario’s performance has less to do with the fact that it’s a video game specifically, and more to do with the fact that Mario is one of the most recognizable characters and IPs to ever exist. Sure, I’m certain there will be sequels, and maybe some other big video game IPs will try their hand, but I’d be shocked if this was the start of a big “video game renaissance” in Hollywood.

To be fair even Last of us came out of a game and has blown up huge for HBO. I think just like books games could be a good source. That does not mean everything will blow up. That said I am expecting more of these for sure. 

[ThomasNicole]

2 hours ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

 

Adjusted for inflation all previous Indy movies hit $1b without China's help.

 

Not saying Indy 5 will but the series has never been reliant on China.

I can see it, but i think it will depends a lot of US performance, and since it´s a oldschool franchise is really hard to sense the hype 

 

I really don´t buy the flop arguments over it, but i don´t know if it can do something like +550M DOM which i think would be needed to a billion WW

[grey ghost]

Any examples of movies that opened on a Wednesday that got 4x legs from their 3-day?

 

 

[ThomasNicole]

I can see 200M 5-day but expecting to finish over A2 or Top Gun seems a bit absurd

 

3.5x multi coming off a 5-day OW is completely nuts, reception seems great but it´s not A+ and we´re not in christmas 

 

And also, let´s be honest, it´s impossible to treat such a huge opening as some underdog that will behave like an original movie. Yes it´s a first movie, but it´s based in one of the biggest franchises of the planet, it does have a huge fanbase, i think it have more chances of behaving closer to a SH movie than a typical animated movie [i would bet in something in the middle tho] 

 

If it ended up with 200M by sunday, i think 500 - 550M is happening, which is huge already

[ThomasNicole]

4 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Any examples of movies that opened on a Wednesday that got 4x legs from their 3-day?

 

 

LOTR trilogy, Jumanji and Shrek 2 comes to mind when it comes to big movie

 

But only Shrek 2 had a +100M 3-day, and even this one didn´t get to 500M despite exceptional reception 

 

Mario should get there because it will open way bigger, but not by much 

Edited April 6, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[grey ghost]

I'm optimistic about...

 

Spider-verse 2

Mission Impossible 7

 

Pessimistic about...

 

GotG3

Fast X

The Flash

Indy 5

Barbie

Haunted Mansion

Blue Beetle

 

And in a gray area for...

 

Little Mermaid 

Transformers 

Elemental 

Oppenheimer 

TMNT