April 14th-16th 2023 Weekend Thread | $900K previews for Renfield

[TigerPaw]

5 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Absolutely. It cant wrap my head around the drops of Air, DnD and JW4. There is no reason for any of them to drop over 40% this weekend yet here we are with all of them looking at 50%+ drops.

Last Friday was inflated though due to Good Friday; plus DnD and JW4 both lost a lot of theaters this weekend.

JW4 especially is seeing lots of adult-skewing competition this week.

Depending on Fri's figures - JW4 might drop less than 50% this weekend.

[grey ghost]

19 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

Excellent 129% increase for Mario. >$80 million weekend is locked.

 

Which will give Mario a nice lead over Beauty and the Beast.

[kayumanggi]

19 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

Excellent 129% increase for Mario. >$80 million weekend is locked.

 

That's crazy considering that it had a 5-day opening weekend.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[grey ghost]

I think this summer is a "wild card summer" where nothing is a lock for 300m but several movies have break out potential.

 

And the thing there's typically at least one of two break outs so it should be quite the roller coaster.

[AN9815]

I honestly think Elemental can co-exist with the rest of the movies this summer. So, unless The Flash is a Top Gun: Maverick or No Way Home type of monster (which even the optimistic predictions don't indicate) I don't think it'll tank as bad as some people here think it will. Now I am not saying this will make, or even come close, to Inside Out numbers but I can see something like $45-55m OW and much better legs than Lightyear and Strange World, I think this will actually get good reviews and have pretty good audience scores. 

[grey ghost]

So being a non-sequel and no thursday previews helped boost Mario's 2nd weekend.

 

Anything else?

[AN9815]

Just now, grey ghost said:

I think this summer is a "wild card summer" where nothing is a lock for 300m but several movies have break out potential.

 

I think something will break out in a big way this summer. My bets are on Barbie, Indiana Jones, The Flash and (maybe) The Little Mermaid.

[M37]

20 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

This weekend kinda proofs imo that a sizable portion of once-moviegoers is maybe forever lost. Pre-Covid, the holdovers woudnt have tanked to badly, but since there is now considerably less people going to the theaters, its more than ever go high or die.

 

This could mean serious trouble for many summer movies.

We saw similarly larger drop-offs after MLK and Pres Day weekends too 

 

I don’t think they’re forever lost generally - to some degree for  specific genres sure - but that ratio of frequent to casual moviegoers has shifted, with now a larger share of the latter. They’ll still come out for big releases and holidays, but less on the weekly grind between them (unless a film has exceptional WOM/should see in theaters vibe)

[Mojoguy]

40 minutes ago, Shawn said:

22.6 mario

That's a motherofgod jump!

[grey ghost]

So 1 billion is pretty much locked for Mario.

 

What about 1.1 billion?

[wildphantom]

25 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

This weekend kinda proofs imo that a sizable portion of once-moviegoers is maybe forever lost. Pre-Covid, the holdovers woudnt have tanked to badly, but since there is now considerably less people going to the theaters, its more than ever go high or die.

 

This could mean serious trouble for many summer movies.

I think it’s more people want the premium screens or they potentially will wait. Exhibitors need to get more PLF’s in. 

 

In plenty of multiplexes the lesser screens are a joke in comparison and audiences know it. 

[John Marston]

3 hours ago, Mulder said:

Looking at it, seems like John Wick 4'll finish at right about where 3 finished, maybe a bit behind. Guess it shows that there is indeed a ceiling for Wick.

I think 200m potential was there but sadly it lost PLF screens right away and started to lose showtimes rapidly. 

[Maggie]

7 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

I think this summer is a "wild card summer" where nothing is a lock for 300m but several movies have break out potential.

 

And the thing there's typically at least one of two break outs so it should be quite the roller coaster.

I think only Barbie has break out potential. The rest will perform well, but not do some incredible numbers we won't expect

Edited April 15, 2023 by Maggie

[Mojoguy]

31 minutes ago, superduperm said:

22.6 is excellent.

 

I’m thinking 38 Saturday and 26.5 Sunday. $87M second weekend.

TGM made $90m 2nd WE. I wonder how close Mario can get to that.

[kayumanggi]

22.60M THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

03.47M THE POPE'S EXORCIST

03.14M RENFIELD

02.15M AIR

02.15M SUZUME

02.11M JOHN WICK IV

01.94M DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES

 

Edited April 15, 2023 by kayumanggi

[kayumanggi]

😂😂😂

 

[KP1025]

6 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

So being a non-sequel and no thursday previews helped boost Mario's 2nd weekend.

 

Anything else?

 

The 3-day OW itself was also deflated from opening on a Wednesday. We can extrapolate that Mario would likely have opened over $180 million at least if it had opened on a Friday.

[Maggie]

I believe we're in for a boring summer at the box office. I don't see any major breakouts (besides barbie) nor big flops. Maybe Inidiana Jones could do some exceptional numbers, but i'm starting to doubt it

[grey ghost]

2 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

😂😂😂

 

 

I wonder when Iger is gonna to release it on Disney Plus.