Weekdays Thread | April 24 - 27 | Thursday Numbers | 2.97M THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE | 1.59M EVIL DEAD RISE

[Mojoguy]

5 hours ago, poweranimals said:

Ugh! Why are the box office sites so slow to update? The Numbers still has it at $885M and BOM at $888M.

It's going to be a looooong wait for that Mario hits a billion WW announcement this Sunday, but it'll be worth it. 🪙 🪙 🪙

Edited April 27, 2023 by Mojoguy

[kayumanggi]

 

[Mojoguy]

6 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

That girl in the second picture looks so scared of Mario. 😆

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Since nobody mentioned it yet, The Super Mario Bros Movie is now at $444M DOM. Which means it has officially beaten Shrek 2’s record as the highest grossing Non-Disney animated film DOM-wise. A record Shrek 2 has been keeping for 19 years! 👩🏻‍💼😲

[CJohn]

7 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I find it hard to believe Margaret will do 15M+ OW. I am hoping for 10M.

[TwoMisfits]

10 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

Damn, this post is planning on a lot of those $5 tickets being used for boredom for Margaret last minute...it could happen, I suppose, but it would be a helluva TMobile effect.  I guess that is why the tickets can be bought at any time in opening week, not just the Tuesday...try to get folks to eventually give in with the "money" in their pocket...

[Nate]

Mario stays neck and neck with beauty and the beast weekdays this week, but the much stronger weekends have pushed it way ahead of that comp.
 

Against incredibles 2, it’ll be about 25 million behind going into the weekend. The next two weeks (full weeks, not weekend) are going to be mario’s big chance to gain ground back, since incredibles suffered 2 pretty big back to back weekly drops - from a 82mil third week to a 44mil 4th week (-46%), down to a 26mil 5th week (-41%).  
 

Mario should best both of those weeks handily and will look really good against this comp before incredibles’ relatively strong late legs kick in (for weeks6-12 incredibles 2 doesn’t drop any harder than 37%). Needs to make back as much of that 25mil deficit as it can over these next 2 weeks to have a chance at keeping pace / keeping the 600mil dream alive. 

[Lurrrrk]

$45 million is in play for the weekend. I think this will easily be the best hold Mario has seen so far. No new openers will take showings like Evil Dead did last weekend.

 

It will have a harsher drop next weekend due to GOTG sucking up PLFs. Probably around a 45-50% drop for a 22-24m next weekend.

[JohnnyGossamer]

39 minutes ago, Nate said:

Mario stays neck and neck with beauty and the beast weekdays this week, but the much stronger weekends have pushed it way ahead of that comp.
 

Against incredibles 2, it’ll be about 25 million behind going into the weekend. The next two weeks (full weeks, not weekend) are going to be mario’s big chance to gain ground back, since incredibles suffered 2 pretty big back to back weekly drops - from a 82mil third week to a 44mil 4th week (-46%), down to a 26mil 5th week (-41%).  
 

Mario should best both of those weeks handily and will look really good against this comp before incredibles’ relatively strong late legs kick in (for weeks6-12 incredibles 2 doesn’t drop any harder than 37%). Needs to make back as much of that 25mil deficit as it can over these next 2 weeks to have a chance at keeping pace / keeping the 600mil dream alive. 

Could Guardian result in some higher drops starting next Thursday? I know it's not tracking huge but I still imagine it'll open close to 100M DOM which is a nice chunk. Will take all the PLF screen for certain too. And, will keep those screens until Fast X. I imagine starting next Thursday SMBM won't see another PLF screen for the rest of its run.

[Nate]

28 minutes ago, Lurrrrk said:

$45 million is in play for the weekend. I think this will easily be the best hold Mario has seen so far. No new openers will take showings like Evil Dead did last weekend.

 

It will have a harsher drop next weekend due to GOTG sucking up PLFs. Probably around a 45-50% drop for a 22-24m next weekend.

I do wonder how much of an impact PLF screens will have on a movie like Mario this late in its run.
 

I agree GOTG3 as family competition will have some impact. But loss of PLF specifically? Not sure it plays as much of a role for a movie like this in its 5th week, assuming # of showings stays strong.

[kayumanggi]

 

[Issac Newton]

$1.67M | Evil Rises

[JustLurking]

14 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I noticed that BOP has been quite high on Margaret's chances from the start, and still is in spite of how low presales are looking. @Shawn may I ask what you guys are seeing here? (if you want to/are allowed to answer, of course)

[Borja9198]

5 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

$1.67M | Evil Rises

first week - $32M~

10 days - $43M~

Final - $60M's

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, JustLurking said:

I noticed that BOP has been quite high on Margaret's chances from the start, and still is in spite of how low presales are looking. @Shawn may I ask what you guys are seeing here? (if you want to/are allowed to answer, of course)

It's a tricky one.

 

The ranges have been pretty wide, and I even lowered the pinpoint final forecast today just to be cautious (better to be low than high -- even though it could still be too high). That said, presales aren't *that* bad in the modeling I've seen. I'm curious to hear what comps are being used here to determine presales are low because there aren't many direct correlations for this kind of film, IMO.

 

Sales in the nationwide sampling I've seen are similar to The Woman King and ahead of Missing. Both point to $1M+ from previews, with Missing especially being a consistent comp for the past week. Friday and weekend business are healthier than Thursday alone might indicate if anyone is looking at a more front-loaded comp for Thursday (and/or not accounting for early access shows deflating Thursday).

 

On the flip side, Thu comps to Ticket to Paradise are more conservative ($~500K+), so I imagine that's where some of the sub-$10M concern comes from. The pace has picked up throughout the week, but not enough to match those other comp paces.

 

It's going to be a very walk-up dependent movie, so there is some projection for that to happen (especially with the strong reviews). If that doesn't though, I wouldn't rule out a number under $10 million.

 

I also just haven't had as much time to focus on this particular weekend while prepping May and June tracking reports. (Also one reason I deviated from long range forecasts on Evil Dead Rise, which ended up being accurate before going too cautious week-of.) 🙄

 

We'll see how it goes.

[grey ghost]

Edit

 

Wrong thread.

Edited April 27, 2023 by grey ghost

[Hiccup23]

I think it looks very possible for Evil Dead Rise will out gross Evil Dead (2013)'s adjusted for inflation number ($61.2M) which would be amazing! 

[screambaby]

1 hour ago, Borja9198 said:

first week - $32M~

10 days - $43M~

Final - $60M's

More then Shazam lulz

[KP1025]

The Super Mario Bros. Movie grossed $2.99M on Wednesday (from 4,350 locations). Total domestic gross stands at $447.05M.#TheSuperMarioBrosMovie #BoxOffice @UniversalPics @illumination @supermariomovie

— BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) April 27, 2023

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, KP1025 said:

Can this really hit 40m when its weekly drop is at 38%. Of course last friday/sat increase were not great which could be due to PLF effect boosting weekdays. But this needs > 200% increase to keep 40m in play.