TOM CRUISE LOVES HIS POPCORN. MOVIES. POPCORN: THE WEEKEND THREAD | We are just waiting for Barbenheimer here

[ringedmortality]

Just now, Avatree said:

isn't it a streaming Apple TV movie?

 

Yes but Sony is handling theatrical distribution, like how Paramount is handling Killers of the Flower Moon

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I was thinking there’s maybe the tiniest of chances next weekend sets the overall box office record. A scenario where Barbenheimer just goes nuts and does like 200+/75, and MI/SoF/E stay big WOM hits with super soft holds + all the rest could in theory get us near the 400+ mark. I doubt the box office is anywhere near that healthy for something like that to be able to happen, but if it’s ever going to anytime in the next few years, it’s probably next weekend or many years away. 

I don't really see how it's possible tbh, this week combines to ~$140m, the only movie that has a chance at staying flat next week is SOF, but MI7 will drop by 40% in the absolute best case scenario. Then everything else ($57m this week) can average to maybe 35% at best, but in reality probably closer to 50% with only Elemental and maybe ATSV doing better than that. That means we're looking at $34m from MI7, $27m from SOF and $37m from the rest for $98m total from the holdovers which means Barbenheimer needs to combine to $302m between them which is simply impossible, and that's in the best case scenario.

 

What I'm actually thinking is something like $23m for MI7 (-60%), $24m for SOF (-10%), $6m for Elemental (~-30%) and then a 50% average drop for the rest for $24m, totalling $77m. I'll guess $135m for Barbie and $65m for Oppenheimer for a cool $200m combined and a weekend total of $277m which I think gets it into the top 10 of all time.

 

 

 

[TMP]

Just now, ringedmortality said:

 

Killers of the Flower Moon and Napoleon over 100 DOM club.

 

The Holdovers over 20DOM club.

Holdovers under C'mon C'mon

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

I don't really see how it's possible tbh, this week combines to ~$140m, the only movie that has a chance at staying flat next week is SOF, but MI7 will drop by 40% in the absolute best case scenario. Then everything else ($57m this week) can average to maybe 35% at best, but in reality probably closer to 50% with only Elemental and maybe ATSV doing better than that. That means we're looking at $34m from MI7, $27m from SOF and $37m from the rest for $98m total from the holdovers which means Barbenheimer needs to combine to $302m between them which is simply impossible, and that's in the best case scenario.

 

What I'm actually thinking is something like $23m for MI7 (-60%), $24m for SOF (-10%), $6m for Elemental (~-30%) and then a 50% average drop for the rest for $24m, totalling $77m. I'll guess $135m for Barbie and $65m for Oppenheimer for a cool $200m combined and a weekend total of $277m which I think gets it into the top 10 of all time.

 

 

 

Yeah, very very very hard for sure, but 200+ and 75 for Opp would be close to the number you listed. Something like 210 for Barbie, 77 for Opp, and basically everything else would have to do as best case as possible, maybe thanks to huge spillover from Barben. 

[ringedmortality]

2 minutes ago, TMP said:

Holdovers under C'mon C'mon

 

Nah. It'll make that much during it's limited release.

[Avatree]

5 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

Yes but Sony is handling theatrical distribution, like how Paramount is handling Killers of the Flower Moon

is it confirmed to get wide release? or will it be like netflix's limited releases?

[ringedmortality]

Just now, Avatree said:

is it confirmed to get wide release? or will it be like netflix's limited releases?

 

Both will get full wide releases

 

https://deadline.com/2023/04/ridley-scott-napoleon-apple-joaquin-phoenix-november-22-sony-theatrical-release-1235316475/

[Hildagarde25]

18 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

 

I feel like people hung up on the age of the actors in that film are the same ones that expected everyone to attempt terrible French accents even though nobody was speaking English in French accents in 1700s France.  Like, who cares as long as the movie is good?

 

Normally I agree, but like I said, their ages are central to the story. How do you portray a young man falling in love with an older woman when the woman is 13 years younger than the man? One of my friends saw the trailer, and she was like "looks cool but isn't the guy playing Napoleon kind of old?" Part of what makes this movie good should be the youthful energy and passion of  Napoleon. Much of his behavior (arrogance, ambition) was because he was in his 20s-30s, and having someone nearly 50 in the role changes the interpretation of the characters and therefore the story.

[TMP]

I think Napoleon will be good, the trailer was really badly cut imo but it seems to be working in terms of getting awareness out. Even if it's bad, we still have Spielberg's 7-part mini-series on HBO based on the Kubrick take coming at some point (or maybe never, we don't even know when Bullitt is supposed to shoot and that's next up for him)

[ringedmortality]

2 minutes ago, TMP said:

I think Napoleon will be good

 

Surely it should get a similar reception to Last Duel, critically.

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

2 minutes ago, Hildagarde25 said:

 

Normally I agree, but like I said, their ages are central to the story. How do you portray a young man falling in love with an older woman when the woman is 13 years younger than the man? One of my friends saw the trailer, and she was like "looks cool but isn't the guy playing Napoleon kind of old?" Part of what makes this movie good should be the youthful energy and passion of  Napoleon. Much of his behavior (arrogance, ambition) was because he was in his 20s-30s, and having someone nearly 50 in the role changes the interpretation of the characters and therefore the story.

Man now I'm wishing we had a young DiCaprio portray Napoleon, that would be a blast

[dudalb]

4 hours ago, FunkMiller said:

Genuinely surprised MI:DR is coming in soft. I guess the audience general malaise is worse than expected. Should have strong legs though.

I think it is more confirmation that streaming has made permanent  a big reduction in ticket buying audiences. I can't see how anybody can deny that without massive ignoring of facts.

I saw MI7 last night, and loved it, but given the massive budget it is not going to make the kind of profits that prevsious MI films have.

Of course fanboys will deny this. Fanboys are very good at denying reality.

And Super Heor fatigure among the GA is a real thing. One or two CBM underperforming is one thing, a whole stream is another. It will b e along time before we see the kind of sucess Marvel had in the last decade happen again...Yes, audiences will turn out to see some CBM's but they won't automaticall yflock to them the way they once did.

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, Hildagarde25 said:

 

Normally I agree, but like I said, their ages are central to the story. How do you portray a young man falling in love with an older woman when the woman is 13 years younger than the man? One of my friends saw the trailer, and she was like "looks cool but isn't the guy playing Napoleon kind of old?" Part of what makes this movie good should be the youthful energy and passion of  Napoleon. Much of his behavior (arrogance, ambition) was because he was in his 20s-30s, and having someone nearly 50 in the role changes the interpretation of the characters and therefore the story.

 

Factually, i completely agree with you. The historical relationship between Napoleon and Josephine was immensely affected by their respective ages. But i think when it comes to a movie like this, theres always one important thing to consider: Is it better to hire the best possible actor or the the actor which fits the historical persons' look (and age) the best?

 

Its not an easy thing to decide for sure. But Phoenix is one of the best actors working today and if he gives us a stellar performance as Napoleon, i do think his age wont matter that much. Its also true though that it remains to be seen how exactly Napoleons relatonship with Josephine will be handeld.

[MovieMan89]

It will certainly be interesting to see what Killers can do at the DOM box office. I think Gangs of NY is still their worst performer adjusted at a very big 160m+ or so, not sure how high to go for current tix price. 

[harry713]

I don’t think Elemental is dropping over -20% for the next few weekend’s. It’s perfect counter-programming to everything coming out. Even tho it’ll lose some showtimes, families will seek it out from WOM and being the only PG option around (Spider-Verse will be shedding theaters).

[MovieMan89]

I am getting big Frozen shades from Elemental, where obviously WOM took off, but also there were literally no new options for basically its whole run. 

[dudalb]

9 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Factually, i completely agree with you. The historical relationship between Napoleon and Josephine was immensely affected by their respective ages. But i think when it comes to a movie like this, theres always one important thing to consider: Is it better to hire the best possible actor or the the actor which fits the historical persons' look (and age) the best?

 

Its not an easy thing to decide for sure. But Phoenix is one of the best actors working today and if he gives us a stellar performance as Napoleon, i do think his age wont matter that much. Its also true though that it remains to be seen how exactly Napoleons relatonship with Josephine will be handeld.

I had fun with the Napoleon trailer seeing what battles they are going to show. "The Whiff of Grapeshot" Toulon, The First Italian campaign, Battle of the Pyramids, and Austerlitz (at least the Frozen Lake part of the battle). As usual in a Scott film, he seems to have been very militant in insisting on accuracy as far as production design and military detail goes.

[Hildagarde25]

36 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

Killers of the Flower Moon? Yeah.

 

I’m really curious about Flowers of the Killer Moon. Part of me can see it being successful, but another part wonders if it might not do as well as some believe. Yes, Leo was/is one of the last great stars, but his reputation has suffered in the past few years (most of the people I know think he’s creepy now due to his dating history). Also, I know Scorsese was big back in the day, but—unpopular opinion—I feel he’s an old-fashioned (even outdated) kind of director who makes a certain type of movie. I like Age of Innocence, Wolf of Wall Street, and Gangs of New York, but The Irishman was so boring. My dad loves his work, but idk. However, I’m not the target demo for this movie, but then I’m excited to see Oppenheimer along with Barbie, so…

[LegionWrex]

3 minutes ago, harry713 said:

I don’t think Elemental is dropping over -20% for the next few weekend’s. It’s perfect counter-programming to everything coming out. Even tho it’ll lose some showtimes, families will seek it out from WOM and being the only PG option around (Spider-Verse will be shedding theaters).

Elemental is basically the only true family film until TMNT on August 2nd, and even then it will still be an option for families who might wanna see something that really young audiences can enjoy (TMNT might be a violent for the really young ones). It's gonna be fine like you said.

[dudalb]

I admit I was wrong about Elemental. BUt so were most people.

Somenone metiniod a Frozen vibe. Elemental is not going make anywhere near what Frozen did, but it is like Frozen in that it had a very lackluster marketing campaign, and might be that rarest of creatures..a film that actually was saved by WOM..something often talked about, but not really happening all that often.