TOM CRUISE LOVES HIS POPCORN. MOVIES. POPCORN: THE WEEKEND THREAD | We are just waiting for Barbenheimer here

[MovieMan89]

I was thinking there’s maybe the tiniest of chances next weekend sets the overall box office record. A scenario where Barbenheimer just goes nuts and does like 200+/75, and MI/SoF/E stay big WOM hits with super soft holds + all the rest could in theory get us near the 400+ mark. I doubt the box office is anywhere near that healthy for something like that to be able to happen, but if it’s ever going to anytime in the next few years, it’s probably next weekend or many years away. 

[ringedmortality]

3 minutes ago, Hildagarde25 said:

 

Vanessa Kirby is playing Josephine and is 13 years younger than Joaquin Phoenix, who looks an old 48 (I say this as a Phoenix fan). That Napoleon was younger than Josephine is significant to their personal and political dynamic. There's just no way Kirby looks like the more "world weary" of the two. She's age appropriate in her 30s, but Napoleon is supposed to be a 20-something when they meet and marry. Phoenix can't pass for someone in his 30s let alone 20s. I'm trying to figure out how the movie will handle the concerns around his marriage to an "older woman" along with their struggle for an heir - I suppose they'll sidestep the age issue and make it "oh she can't conceive". 

 

As much as I love Phoenix, I think he's too old for the part. That Scott originally had Jodie Comer as Josephine (who's 18 years younger than Phoenix!) is ridiculous. Normally, I'd let the age casting go, but in this instance, Napoleon and Josephine's ages really matter to the story and their characters.

 

Still, curious to see what Scott does.   

Nicole Kidman should have been cast imo

[Deep Wang]

1 minute ago, ringedmortality said:

Nicole Kidman should have been cast imo

That casting would have been…

 

 

To Die For

[TwoMisfits]

I'm just thinking a weekend with...

Barbie $112M, Oppy $51M, and the rest at $70M is gonna cause some folks to look for the nearest bridge as I see numbers go higher and higher.

 

Note, I'm not saying these are the numbers - giving final numbers before final sets tends to be a fool's errand...but right now...there's a lot of optimism, where outside of SoF, we haven't had any since Spidey...

Edited July 16, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Ozymandias]

13 minutes ago, Hildagarde25 said:

 

Vanessa Kirby is playing Josephine and is 13 years younger than Joaquin Phoenix, who looks an old 48 (I say this as a Phoenix fan). That Napoleon was younger than Josephine is significant to their personal and political dynamic. There's just no way Kirby looks like the more "world weary" of the two. She's age appropriate in her 30s, but Napoleon is supposed to be a 20-something when they meet and marry. Phoenix can't pass for someone in his 30s let alone 20s. I'm trying to figure out how the movie will handle the concerns around his marriage to an "older woman" along with their struggle for an heir - I suppose they'll sidestep the age issue and make it "oh she can't conceive". 

 

As much as I love Phoenix, I think he's too old for the part. That Scott originally had Jodie Comer as Josephine (who's 18 years younger than Phoenix!) is ridiculous. Normally, I'd let the age casting go, but in this instance, Napoleon and Josephine's ages really matter to the story and their characters.

 

Still, curious to see what Scott does.   

 

I feel like people hung up on the age of the actors in that film are the same ones that expected everyone to attempt terrible French accents even though nobody was speaking English in French accents in 1700s France.  Like, who cares as long as the movie is good?

Edited July 16, 2023 by Ozymandias

[JustLurking]

12 minutes ago, Killimano3 said:

Does Barbie really seem like it's going to be opening to 150+ ? I assumed it would be going 100-120 at the high end.

 

Also respect to transformers for not completely collapsing after its second weekend like all these other bombs this year. It's actually done pretty well since all things considered

it's not a lock for 150+ but I would definitely say it's basically a lock for 120+ off this pace and distribution

 

150 is definitely plausible as long as it has a good final week, but it can just miss it if it doesn't

Edited July 16, 2023 by JustLurking

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I'm just thinking a weekend with...

Barbie $112M, Oppy $51M, and the rest at $70M is gonna cause some folks to look for the nearest bridge as I see numbers go higher and higher.

 

Note, I'm not saying these are the numbers - giving final numbers before final sets tends to be a fool's errand...but right now...there's a lot of optimism, where outside of SoF, we haven't had any since Spidey...

$112m would be shocking (in a bad way) for Barbie at this point, ngl. I just can’t see it. Still waiting on official Opp reviews to say 50 is a lock for that though. Can still see a scenario where 3hr+ historical drama just isn’t gonna fly well past the core Nolanites. 

Edited July 16, 2023 by MovieMan89

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

$112m would be shocking (in a bad way) for Barbie at this point, ngl. I just can’t see it. Still waiting on official Opp reviews to say 50 is a lock for that though. Can still see a scenario where 3hr+ historical drama just isn’t gonna fly well past the core Nolanites. 

 

I honestly picked the numbers out of a well-defined hat:).  Between Minions 2 and Spidey for Barbie, at the normal "everything opens at $50Mish this summer that appeals to male adults":)...

[TMP]

If Oppenheimer is a big hit, does that signal good things for another big, R-rated historical epic - albeit one with a significantly more famous star and subject matter - with Napoleon? Joaquin's huge when used properly (Joker, Gladiator), and I definitely think it'll be a much better test of just how big he got with Joker than either Beau or C'mon C'mon were lol, given how this one looks significantly more commercially friendly than either

Edited July 16, 2023 by TMP

[AniNate]

34 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Lol, you didn’t roast me correctly though. You do know it likely isn’t a success in reality unless it hits that right? Are you unaware of Pixar budgets? 
 

I believe the roast you’re looking for has to do with me saying WOM is nothing special. Yeah, obviously it’s having some fantastic WOM at this point (though yet again it’s not just coincidental with holds and how there were literally no other family options after Elemental this summer). Such an odd summer for stacking adult skewed blockbusters. 

 

You can't ignore its worldwide take, it's all but certain to pass $400m and possibly $500m. Even with its budget I'm pretty sure 500m makes it an unqualified success.

 

Also don't use the word literally if you don't mean literally. Ruby Gillman may have bombed but it was still competition.

 

 

Edited July 16, 2023 by AniNate

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, TMP said:

If Oppenheimer is a big hit, does that signal good things for another big, R-rated historical epic - albeit one with a significantly more famous star and subject matter - with Napoleon? Joaquin's huge when used properly (Joker, Gladiator), and 

I think that movie can be very successful, yes. Will really depend on quality. 

[Deep Wang]

11 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

That casting would have been…

 

 

To Die For

I don’t know why I made this joke, I’m so old and like 5 people will get it 😂

[ringedmortality]

3 minutes ago, TMP said:

If Oppenheimer is a big hit, does that signal good things for another big, R-rated historical epic - albeit one with a significantly more famous star

 

Killers of the Flower Moon? Yeah.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, AniNate said:

 

You can't ignore its worldwide take, it's all but certain to pass $400m and possibly $500m. Even with its budget I'm pretty sure 500m makes it an unqualified success.

It should be at least close to breakeven with 500 WW, yes. Would be preferable if at least 200 of that is DOM, DOM is always more important for profit. 

[TMP]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

I think that movie can be very successful, yes. Will really depend on quality. 

Starting to get tempted to start a Napoleon $100m+ dom club...

[TMP]

1 minute ago, ringedmortality said:

 

Killers of the Flower Moon? Yeah.

I'm already way too bullish on that movie, predictions that only went up after seeing the trailer in IMAX lol

[MovieMan89]

Just now, ringedmortality said:

 

Killers of the Flower Moon? Yeah.

That should do 150 or so DOM unless it’s just really too extreme for GA (lol Wolf says hi). Scorsese/DiCaprio basically have a 150 adjusted DOM floor with every movie they’ve ever done, and the rave reviews are already through the roof here. 

[wildphantom]

22 minutes ago, Hildagarde25 said:

 

Vanessa Kirby is playing Josephine and is 13 years younger than Joaquin Phoenix, who looks an old 48 (I say this as a Phoenix fan). That Napoleon was younger than Josephine is significant to their personal and political dynamic. There's just no way Kirby looks like the more "world weary" of the two. She's age appropriate in her 30s, but Napoleon is supposed to be a 20-something when they meet and marry. Phoenix can't pass for someone in his 30s let alone 20s. I'm trying to figure out how the movie will handle the concerns around his marriage to an "older woman" along with their struggle for an heir - I suppose they'll sidestep the age issue and make it "oh she can't conceive". 

 

As much as I love Phoenix, I think he's too old for the part. That Scott originally had Jodie Comer as Josephine (who's 18 years younger than Phoenix!) is ridiculous. Normally, I'd let the age casting go, but in this instance, Napoleon and Josephine's ages really matter to the story and their characters.

 

Still, curious to see what Scott does.   

it is interesting for sure. I trust Scott though and I still expect Phoenix to be iconic in the role. Huge excitement for this one. You cannot beat a Ridley epic. 

[ringedmortality]

Just now, TMP said:

Starting to get tempted to start a Napoleon $100m+ dom club...

 

Killers of the Flower Moon and Napoleon over 100 DOM club.

 

The Holdovers over 20DOM club.

[Avatree]

1 minute ago, TMP said:

Starting to get tempted to start a Napoleon $100m+ dom club...

isn't it a streaming Apple TV movie?