The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[ZackM]

22 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

 

Barbie Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	37	117	175	100	21
Seats Added	4,350	14,991	28,886	17,738	3,088
Seats Sold	11,477	9,910	9,499	10,100	5,242
7/13/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	416	2,541	109,943	413,614	26.58%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	25	94	213	408
ATP	Gross
$16.32	$1,794,270

 

 

Barbie Blowout Party: Early Access Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days
7/13/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	108	108	19,304	20,668	93.40%
ATP	Gross
$21.16	$408,473

 

 

Barbie Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	203	37	117	175	100
Seats Added	25,954	4,350	14,991	28,886	17,738
Seats Sold	11,474	11,477	9,910	9,499	10,100
7/14/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	416	2,744	121,417	439,568	27.62%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	31	110	259	475
ATP	Gross
$16.26	$1,974,240

 

 

Barbie Blowout Party: Early Access Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days
7/14/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	108	108	19,411	20,668	93.92%
ATP	Gross
$21.15	$410,543

[Bobzaruni]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

My apologies, I've blacked out that Thanksgiving week - really all of Holidays 2009-10 - from of my memory

 

Also, what had it that weekend, 2012?

I have no idea what this is but it was 'Disney’s A Christmas Carol' haha

[mmed1345]

59 minutes ago, M37 said:

Barbenheimer T-7 Update

 

Both films just keep chugging along, really going to be a special weekend. Again using spoiler boxes to limit size of post

 

Charts:

  Reveal hidden contents

Average here is probably a bit overstated, thinking more $9M than $9.5M

 

Even excluding some of the way high comps, average still over $21M

 

Combined, still ahead of Thor/BWPF, putting $30M+ in play

 

For Barbie, now this is where things get complicated...

  Hide contents

From a blind, pure growth rate analysis projection, I would have Barbie reaching 500K tickets sold for Alpha, on the level of Thor & BPWF all by herself ... but that just doesn't seem realistic. The more likely outcome is that the growth rate cools off - can see some flattening out vs comps in last couple of updates - but by how much?

 

I do share some of the concerns that @TwoMisfits expressed yesterday, in that a female driven audience, one where for some going to the movie is as important as actually watching it, has a very real chance of already having sold the bulk of its tickets and not coming close to the growth over the final week as most of these high volume comps (outside super fan heavy MCU)

 

One recent, but certainly imperfect, comp might be Don't Worry Darling, which Deadline reported as 71% F for the OW. There wasn't a whole lot of tracking on it in this thread (starts roughly here), but it was the epitome of early sales and limited walk-ups. For example, in Philly the growth over the final week was a hair under +100%, way below ASTV (+236%), Mermaid (+159%, but overindexed so higher early sales), and even GOTG3 (+115%) for this market. To give a sense of how that affects the $ value, the Dune comp dropped 19% from T-6, Morbius -34%, and ATSV would have been -40%

 

My gut feeling is that we've reached the peak of average values vs comps, and will continue to see some flattening and/or turning down, but to what value is not clear. Maybe it settles into a more normal growth pattern from here (like ASTV or Mermaid), and still winds up over $20M, but do not believe that threshold for Thursday is locked, could even see it as "low" as $15-$16M, if we were to see a similar trajectory from T-7 as Avatar 2 or TGM

 

Oppenheimer, however:

  Hide contents

Nothing really of concern here, values are rising steadily as Oppy rides Barbie's coattails. Though due to the heavy PLF draw and older audience, expecting a good chunk of final sales have already been banked, and so not expecting a huge final week, definitely more in Indy 5/TGM/Avatar range, which would land in the ~200K or below final ticket sales for Alpha, which may also overindex (lower PSM). Would think a value closer to $9M (if not below) is more likely than $10M, but the data also supports the higher values at present

 

However, it is difficult to say yet how wide of net Oppy will cast, whether it will play well to older, casual viewers like MI7, Indy 5, TGM, or have business be concentrated in bigger markets - whether the subject or the director is the primary draw here

 

What about IM/OW?

  Hide contents

Want to be clear: even though I've tried above to pump the breaks a bit, there are enough sales that even a "weak" finish is still going to be a massive OW for each for each film, and combined at least approaching the level of BPWF ($181.3M) and Strange MoM( $187.4) even it ultimately falls short (and being in summer, should surpass the $220M/$230M first week totals for both)

 

The Drafthouse sales numbers for FSS are really good. At T-7, Friday is already ahead of Thursday, with Saturday even higher, for both Barbie and Oppenheimer. Barbie is ahead of ATSV at this same checkpoint, which landed a nearly 7x back in June. The last Alpha weekend numbers I saw (on T-12) were very similar for both films as where Drafthouse is pointing. Oppy is even better, almost close to Avatar 2's ratios, which was similarly driven by high PLF demand pushing sales later into the weekend, and let to an 8x, albeit in December rather than July.

 

With the caveat that these are both probably going to be early presale heavy films, particularly at Drafthouse (and especially for Barbie where lack of capacity is rolling sales forward), think both films have a good shot at hitting a 7x plus, maybe even 8x or more for Oppy. Do not see any reason in the sales numbers to expect an IM lower than ~6.5x, unless the sales really hit a wall and just don't have much in the way of walk-ups

 

I'm not going to roll out any forecast matrices just yet, want to see how the weekend sales go first, but I'll just say I think generally we're heading towards at least a high $20M combined preview (with $30M+ total and $20M+ for Barbie in play), Barbie is in range of topping both GOTG3 and ATSV for second highest OW, though I'm hesitant to lean into the $140M or even $150M range yet, while Oppenheimer is solidly climbing ahead of the MI7 range, to more of the Flash/Transformers/Indy 5 level

 

And finally ::sigh::

  Reveal hidden contents

It is absolutely plausible that Barbie in fact winds up with nearly the same $17.5M preview and ~$120M OW as both GOTG3 and ATSV

 

Also, fun fact (per Reddit!): the highest grossing OW without IMAX is $121.9M, by Mockingjay Part 1, which didn't have them because a Christopher Nolan film (Interstellar) did instead

 

Great breakdown! With your data and IM predictions then $60M+ for Oppy and $120M+ for Barbie looks pretty good, great to see. Im sure both can creep to $70M and $130M if wom and walk ups become strong. 

Edited July 15, 2023 by mmed1345

[Menor the Destroyer]

I think there's a good case for Barbie going 150+ if it can get to a low-20s preview. Friday sales are great with a better ratio than Spiderverse so I'm not really seeing IM significantly below 7. I guess the question is if it gets limited by being underscheduled, but it definitely seems like the demand is there.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Barbenheimer T-7 Update

 

And finally ::sigh::

 

It is absolutely plausible that Barbie in fact winds up with nearly the same $17.5M preview and ~$120M OW as both GOTG3 and ATSV

 

 

 

Spoiler

FWIW I'm probably in the low 20s camp right now (I say "probably" coz I have no clue at all where this is headed), but ngl I would absolutely be howling if Barbs came close to 17.5m after all of this. 

 

Edited July 15, 2023 by Porthos

[TwoMisfits]

3 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Barbie	T-5	Jax	6	70	112	1,276	8,401	15.19%
		Phx	7	73	160	1,367	11,047	12.37%
		Ral	8	61	140	1,531	6,793	22.54%
	Total		21	204	412	4,174	26,241	15.91%
Barbie (EA)	T-4	Jax	2	3	5	241	319	75.55%
		Phx	1	1	0	202	208	97.12%
		Ral	2	2	0	175	190	92.11%
	Total		5	6	5	618	717	86.19%
Oppenheimer	T-5	Jax	6	28	51	665	5,083	13.08%
		Phx	6	27	41	637	4,102	15.53%
		Ral	8	28	48	687	3,427	20.05%
	Total		20	83	140	1,989	12,612	15.77%

 

Oppenheimer T-5 comps

 - JWD (Total) - missed

 - Top Gun 2 - .644x (9.47m)

 - Avatar 2 - .508x (8.63m)

 - Matrix (OD) - missed

 - Dune - missed

 - Indiana Jones - 1.76x (12.67m)

 - Mission Impossible 7 (Total) - 1.76x (13.13m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .415x

 

Size adjusted average - 10.94m 

 

Barbie (Total) T-5 comps

 - Avatar 2 - 1.223x (20.79m)

 - JWD (Total) - missed

 - Indiana Jones - 4.241x (30.53m)

 - Shazam 2 - 8.745x (29.73m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Total) - 1.049x (20.24m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 28.023x (20.46m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - missed

 - Oppenheimer - 2.409x

 

Size adjusted average - 22.72m

 

Here are my highest T-5 totals (excluding any that were missed)

 - NWH - .215x (10.76m)

 - Batman (Total) - .74x (15.98m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - .925x (16.19m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Total) - 1.049x (20.24m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.223x (20.79m)

 - Black Widow - 1.501x (19.81m)

 - Eternals - 2.083x (19.79m)

 

At 4,792 total tickets sold, Barbie has passed the T-0 morning sample of all but 12 movies I've tracked.  Not sure where it will end up, but I'd wager in the 11k-12k range that morning (around Batman's total with EA).  

 

Do you have a Mermaid comp for Barbie?  I think that's gonna be on point, even without the holiday weekend set up...

[katnisscinnaplex]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Do you have a Mermaid comp for Barbie?  I think that's gonna be on point, even without the holiday weekend set up...

I was taking a break during that entire run unfortunately.  

[Tinalera]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

 

  Hide contents

FWIW I'm probably in the low 20s camp right now (I say "probably" coz I have no clue at all where this is headed), but ngl I would absolutely be howling if Barbs came close to 17.5m after all of this. 

 

Laughing at the meme, not your prediction/suggestion. 

Canada numbers as I have said before are nothing Ive seen for a comedy (in my limited tracking).  Its been quite a ride to be sure.

[upriser7]

The biggest uncertainty regarding Barbie for me is how frontloaded is it going to be. My current thinking is that it wouldn't as frontloaded as say CBMs and IM would be closer to 8 than say 6-7. Do we have any data on how weekend sales are looking like when compared to previews and how it compares vs some recent CBMs ?

[JustLurking]

5 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

The biggest uncertainty regarding Barbie for me is how frontloaded is it going to be. My current thinking is that it wouldn't as frontloaded as say CBMs and IM would be closer to 8 than say 6-7. Do we have any data on how weekend sales are looking like when compared to previews and how it compares vs some recent CBMs ?

multiple posts right on this page have already pointed out weekend sales are great

[vafrow]

35 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Laughing at the meme, not your prediction/suggestion. 

Canada numbers as I have said before are nothing Ive seen for a comedy (in my limited tracking).  Its been quite a ride to be sure.

 

Are your tracked theatres more urban or suburban.

 

My tracking is firmly suburban and is strong compared to comps, but the urban I've looked at is at another level. Lots of really big auditoriums that are 80%+ sold.

[joselowe]

32 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

The biggest uncertainty regarding Barbie for me is how frontloaded is it going to be. My current thinking is that it wouldn't as frontloaded as say CBMs and IM would be closer to 8 than say 6-7. Do we have any data on how weekend sales are looking like when compared to previews and how it compares vs some recent CBMs ?

In my city weekend sales for Barbie arent bad, but also arent great https://www.amctheatres.com/movie-theatres/miami-ft-lauderdale/amc-aventura-24/showtimes/barbie-69662/2023-07-22/amc-aventura-24/all

 

But I live in a large family/Latino majority community and I'm not sure if the film is skewing towards those audiences.

 

By comparison in my community all showings of ATSV were sold out a week in advanced at the closest 8 theaters 

Edited July 15, 2023 by joselowe

[Tinalera]

42 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Are your tracked theatres more urban or suburban.

 

My tracking is firmly suburban and is strong compared to comps, but the urban I've looked at is at another level. Lots of really big auditoriums that are 80%+ sold.

Main cities-Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary. Ive fallen off of doing East coast recently, mainly in that they are even more problematic when it comes to getting seats released for presale. I should pick those up again just to see how they are doing.  

Montreal last I checked only had 2 theatres booking (may have changed) and I think one of those was at 50 percent) But even TO and Van city with more seats they are still doing great numbers.

[vafrow]

9 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Main cities-Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary. Ive fallen off of doing East coast recently, mainly in that they are even more problematic when it comes to getting seats released for presale. I should pick those up again just to see how they are doing.  

Montreal last I checked only had 2 theatres booking (may have changed) and I think one of those was at 50 percent) But even TO and Van city with more seats they are still doing great numbers.

Within those cities though, are you grabbing downtown theatres, or the more suburban ones.

 

For Toronto, I recall when I'd check on downtown theatres for ATSV, it was noticably slower than what I was seeing in my area. I'm finding the inverse to be true here, even though my local is outpacing ATSV. 

 

[ZackM]

On 7/9/2023 at 1:56 PM, ZackM said:

Barbie Friday and Saturday

 

Friday

Theaters - 407

Showings - 3,074

Sold - 65,478

Total - 538,418

ATP - $16.02

 

Saturday
Theaters - 407
Showings - 3,066
Sold - 49,711
Total - 536,186
ATP - $15.53
 

 

 

Barbie Friday and Saturday

 

Friday
Theaters - 413
Showings - 3,994
Sold - 151,654
Total - 671,192
ATP - $15.89

 

Saturday
Theaters - 415
Showings - 4,007
Sold - 111,984
Total - 674,211
ATP - $15.35
 

 

[ZackM]

On 7/9/2023 at 6:09 PM, ZackM said:

Oppenheimer Friday and Saturday

 

Friday
Theaters - 420
Showings - 2,454
Sold - 57,923
Total - 496,334
ATP - $18.10
 

Saturday
Theaters - 415
Showings - 2,455
Sold - 56,786
Total - 496,908
ATP - $17.25
 

 

Oppenheimer Friday and Saturday

 

Friday
Theaters - 424
Showings - 2,695
Sold - 104,089
Total - 533,173
ATP - $17.46

 

Saturday
Theaters - 425
Showings - 2,701
Sold - 100,602
Total - 533,263
ATP - $16.72
 

[Bob-omb]

13 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

Oppenheimer Friday and Saturday

 

Friday
Theaters - 424
Showings - 2,695
Sold - 104,089
Total - 533,173
ATP - $17.46

 

Saturday
Theaters - 425
Showings - 2,701
Sold - 100,602
Total - 533,263
ATP - $16.72
 

WOW Oppenheimer is way closer than expected on tickets sold to Barbie than expected. I mean for every ticket Oppenheimer sold, Barbie sold 1.3. As a side note: In my local cinema (Norway), Oppenheimer is winning the race 648 to 577.

[Flopped]

8 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

 

Talk to Me T-12 comps

 - Black Phone (Total) - .154x (462k)

 - M3GAN - missed

 

Hi what does this mean? (missed) 

[katnisscinnaplex]

3 minutes ago, Flopped said:

 

Hi what does this mean? (missed) 

I didn’t track it that day

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/14/2023 at 6:50 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Barbie

 

Thursday

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
195	5662	35109	16.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

456

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

EA

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
9	1491	1747	85.3%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

6

 

 

COMPS

T-6

*Excludes any EA

 

(3.108x) of RoTB

~$27.3M THUR Previews

 

(3.100x) of Fast X

~$23.3M THUR Previews

 

(1.223x) of ATSV

~$21.22M THUR Previews

 

(0.813x) of GOTG 3

~$14.2M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $21.5M THUR Previews 

 

9th straight day its increased against comps. 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Barbie

 

Thursday

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
195	6237	35109	17.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

575

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

EA

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
9	1516	1747	86.8%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

25

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

7

 

 

COMPS

T-5

*Excludes any EA

 

(3.137x) of RoTB

~$27.6M THUR Previews

 

(3.243x) of Fast X

~$24.3M THUR Previews

 

(1.268x) of ATSV

~$21.99M THUR Previews

 

(0.850x) of GOTG 3

~$14.9M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $22.2M THUR Previews 

 

10th straight day its increased against comps. This final week is going to be fascinating. I could see comp avg going all the way up to $25M or going down to $20M.