The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[excel1]

Barbie + Oppenheimer + MI7 = $300M combined. Outside butt possible shot.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Barbie

 

Thursday

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
195	6237	35109	17.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

575

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

EA

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
9	1516	1747	86.8%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

25

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

7

 

 

COMPS

T-5

*Excludes any EA

 

(3.137x) of RoTB

~$27.6M THUR Previews

 

(3.243x) of Fast X

~$24.3M THUR Previews

 

(1.268x) of ATSV

~$21.99M THUR Previews

 

(0.850x) of GOTG 3

~$14.9M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $22.2M THUR Previews 

 

10th straight day its increased against comps. This final week is going to be fascinating. I could see comp avg going all the way up to $25M or going down to $20M. 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Barbie

 

Thursday

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
195	6731	35109	19.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

494

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

EA

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
9	1542	1747	88.3%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

26

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

7

 

 

COMPS

T-4

*Excludes any EA

 

(3.071x) of RoTB

~$27.0M THUR Previews

 

(3.340x) of Fast X

~$25.1M THUR Previews

 

(1.213x) of ATSV

~$21.05M THUR Previews

 

(0.882x) of GOTG 3

~$15.4M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $22.1M THUR Previews 

 

Survived Sunday! 

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

OPPENHEIMER

 

THURSDAY previews

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
103	2615	18783	13.9%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

87

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(1.360x) of Fast X

~$10.20M THUR Previews

 

(1.039x) of Indy 5

~$7.47M THUR Previews

 

COMP AVG: $8.83M

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

OPPENHEIMER

 

THURSDAY previews

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
103	2834	18783	15.1%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

219

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(1.406x) of Fast X

~$10.55M THUR Previews

 

(1.083x) of Indy 5

~$7.8M THUR Previews

 

COMP AVG: $9.17M

 

Excellent jump today

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

TMNT 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-17

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
150	368	27662	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

24

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

EA

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
10	367	1756	20.9%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

35

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-17

*Excludes any EA

 

(0.876x) of Elemental

~$2.1M THUR Previews + gross from EA 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

TMNT 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
150	375	27662	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

EA

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
10	388	1756	22.1%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

21

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-16

*Excludes any EA

 

(0.856x) of Elemental

~$2.05M THUR Previews + gross from EA 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

HAUNTED MANSION

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
111	1434	19452	7.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

37

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-12

 

(0.541x) of TLM

~$5.58M THUR Previews

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

HAUNTED MANSION

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
111	1473	19452	7.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

37

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-11

 

(0.546x) of TLM

~$5.62M THUR Previews

[MovieMan89]

I can’t wait to see how crazy tracking goes if reviews for Barbie are total raves when embargo lifts like I think they will be. Imagine the movie sitting at like 97% or something heading into the weekend, 200 would probably happen. 

[vafrow]

On 7/13/2023 at 9:14 PM, vafrow said:

 

Haunted Mansion, southern Ontario, T-14

 

Manual ticket count again. Sales have doubled in the last 5-6 days to get the market to 40.

 

Haunted Mansion, southern Ontario, T-11 

 

Manual count of 53 seats. Same broader southern Ontario radius. Covers 31 theatres (63 showtimes)that have showing over a 120km radius, encompassing Clarington down to London.

 

I get that Canada is a completely different market on some films, but I'm still struggling to make sense of sales being this slow.

 

 

[excel1]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

I can’t wait to see how crazy tracking goes if reviews for Barbie are total raves when embargo lifts like I think they will be. Imagine the movie sitting at like 97% or something heading into the weekend, 300 would probably happen. 

 

FIFY

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

I can’t wait to see how crazy tracking goes if reviews for Barbie are total raves when embargo lifts like I think they will be. Imagine the movie sitting at like 97% or something heading into the weekend, 200 would probably happen. 

When does embargo lift? 

[MovieMan89]

23 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

When does embargo lift? 

Tuesday I believe. 

[misterpepp]

On 7/10/2023 at 12:31 PM, datpepper said:

Sheesh, GT tix were delayed a whole week. Now the 17th.

 

Delayed again to July 20th. Maybe one of these days they'll actually go on sale.

[Porthos]

Quick and Dirty Haunted Mansion Sacto Report [T-11]

391/7723 (5.06% sold) [+29 tickets]

 

0.90719x GBA at T-11            [4.08m]

0.63889x Sonic 2 at T-11      [3.99m]

0.72677x Minions 2at T-11    [7.81m]

0.88864x Shazam 2 at T-11  [3.02m]

0.20988x TLM at T-11           [2.16m]

 

====

 

TLM already had a few days of social media bounce (while HM was yesterday's) and Minions 2 is a special case.  Plus TLM over-performed in Sacramento.  Ignoring those two outliers and looking at the numbers without much of a sense of pace, 4m+ sounds plausible just from a quick surface level glance.  Any other thoughts will have to wait.

 

I'll do another check around T-7 or so (when I'll also have Elemental numbers to rope in) and see how much it changed, if it has.

[Porthos]

 

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	77	8355	10556	2201	20.85%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	246
Total Seats Sold Today	130

 

T-5 Comps:

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	142.37		119	1546		0/145	20907/22453	6.89%		3737	58.90%		8.83m
Dune	182.81		63	1204		0/79	11124/12328	9.77%		2915	75.51%		9.32m
JWD	47.65		449	4619		0/224	23313/27932	16.54%		10966	20.07%		8.58m
BP2	23.13		412	9516		2/307	28444/37960	25.07%		16800	13.10%		6.48m
Ava 2	46.97		296	4686		0/198	22541/27227	17.21%		8986	24.49%		7.98m
Wick 4	106.64		166	2064		0/118	14480/16544	12.48%		5448	40.40%		9.49m
FX	134.62		74	1635		0/179	26509/28144	5.81%		4122	53.40%		10.10m
Indy 5	108.05		162	2037		0/134	18676/20713	9.83%		4767	46.17%		7.78m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:      487/3390  [14.37% sold]
Matinee:          15/81  [18.52% | 0.68% of all tickets sold]
----    
70mm:                   670/776 [+6 tickets] [30.44% of all tickets sold]
All other PLF:    1082/4494 [+78 tickets] [49.16% of all tickets sold]
Standard:           449/5286 [+46 tickets] [20.40% of all tickets sold]

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	77	8096	10556	2460	23.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

259

 

T-4 Comps:

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	144.45		157	1703		0/145	20757/22460	7.58%		3737	65.83%		8.96m
Dune	184.41		130	1334		0/79	10936/12270	10.87%		2915	84.39%		9.40m
JWD	46.70		649	5268		0/224	22664/27932	18.86%		10966	22.43%		8.41m
BP2	24.27		618	10134		2/308	27930/38064	26.62%		16800	14.64%		6.80m
Ava 2	48.29		408	5094		0/204	22706/27800	18.32%		8986	27.38%		8.21m
Wick 4	106.72		241	2305		0/119	14274/16579	13.90%		5448	45.15%		9.50m
FX	137.12		159	1794		0/179	26350/28144	6.37%		4122	59.68%		10.28m
Indy 5	108.51		230	2267		0/134	18442/20709	10.95%		4767	51.60%		7.81m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:      574/3390  [16.93% sold]
Matinee:          15/81  [18.52% | 0.61% of all tickets sold]
----    
70mm:                    681/776 [+11 tickets] [27.68% of all tickets sold]
All other PLF:    1216/4494 [+134 tickets] [49.43% of all tickets sold]
Standard:           563/5286 [+114 tickets] [22.89% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 7/16/2023 at 1:01 AM, Porthos said:

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	180	16708	21748	5040	23.17%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	1
Total Seats Sold Today	470

 

T-5 Comps:

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	75.74		312	6654		0/271	30655/37309	17.83%		11474	43.93%		14.59m
JWD	109.11		449	4619		0/224	23313/27932	16.54%		10966	45.96%		19.64m
BA	301.80		149	1670		0/169	22641/24311	6.87%		4494	112.15%		22.63m
Ava 2	107.55		296	4686		0/198	22541/27227	17.21%		8986	56.09%		18.28m
Scream 6	439.41		75	1147		0/77	8600/9747	11.77%		3134	160.82%		25.05m
Wick 4	244.19		166	2064		0/118	14480/16544	12.48%		5448	92.51%		21.73m
GOTG3	96.68		265	5213		0/226	26601/31814	16.39%		10750	46.88%		16.92m
FX	308.26		74	1635		0/179	26509/28144	5.81%		4122	122.27%		23.12m
TLM	186.87		124	2697		0/175	22324/25021	10.78%		6561	76.82%		19.25m
AtSV	141.06		278	3573		0/142	18901/22474	15.90%		9744	51.72%		24.47m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1009/5862  [17.21% sold]
Matinee:    415/2439  [17.02% | 8.23% of all tickets sold]
------------    
Wed:         385/422 [91.23% sold] [+5 tickets sold]
Thr:    4655/21326 [21.83% sold] [+465 tickets sold]

 

===

 

Practically flat from Friday is (yet another) great sign for Barbie.

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	180	16083	21748	5665	26.05%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

625

 

T-4 Comps:

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	79.45		476	7130		0/271	30179/37309	19.11%		11474	49.37%		15.30m
JWD	107.54		649	5268		0/224	22664/27932	18.86%		10966	51.66%		19.36m
BA	300.37		216	1886		0/169	22425/24311	7.76%		4494	126.06%		22.53m
Ava 2	111.21		408	5094		0/204	22706/27800	18.32%		8986	63.04%		18.91m
Scream 6	448.89		115	1262		0/78	8602/9864	12.79%		3134	180.76%		25.59m
Wick 4	245.77		241	2305		0/119	14274/16579	13.90%		5448	103.98%		21.87m
GOTG3	99.06		506	5719		0/227	26231/31950	17.90%		10750	52.70%		17.33m
FX	315.77		159	1794		0/179	26350/28144	6.37%		4122	137.43%		23.68m
TLM	185.43		358	3055		0/177	22304/25359	12.05%		6561	86.34%		19.10m
AtSV	143.67		370	3943		0/142	18531/22474	17.54%		9744	58.14%		24.93m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       1143/5862  [19.50% sold]
Matinee:    488/2439  [20.01% | 8.61% of all tickets sold]
------------    
Wed:        388/422 [91.94% sold] [+3 tickets sold]
Thr:    5277/21326 [24.74% sold] [+622 tickets sold]

 

Edited July 18, 2023 by Porthos

[vafrow]

On 7/16/2023 at 6:57 AM, vafrow said:

 

Barbie T-5, Milton, ON

 

Sales up to 178 , another 18% . Pretty solid for a Saturday update.

 

Now at 44% ahead of ATSV. It only overtook it 3 days ago.

 

I can't see this slowing down at all this week. Even on one screen, there's enough capacity for it to sell strongly enough to maintain this pace. Sales are well distributed between the afternoon, early evening and late shows that capacity likely won't become a concern for a couple of days at least. And, being a short run time, I think the late show will pick up steam once the early show starts reaching capacity.

 

8.476x of TLM for $87.3M

1.447x of ATSV for $25.8M

1.835x of MI7 for $12.8M

 

Barbie T-4, Milton, ON

 

Sales at 214, up 20% from yesterday. Just stable, steady growth. Its probably a day or two away from exceeding GOTG3 final sales figure.

 

Anecdotally, I bought Oppenheimer tickets for myself and some family members yesterday, as well as Barbie tickets for my wife and some friends yesterday.  Ticket availability is now becoming scarce, that it's pushing people to buy earlier. I had others tell me to make sure we buy right away, because they could see tickets were going fast for the peak shows.

 

9.727x of TLM for $100.2M

1.476x of ATSV for $25.6M

1.814x of MI7 for $12.7M

[M37]

Waiting for a few more updates before bringing the charts back out, but the pace on Barbie especially and Oppy to a lesser extent has definitely cooled a bit. Seems to me that there was indeed a post-July 4th catch-up surge plus social media bump (T-11 to T-7)

 

Mind you, both films are still growing very well, ahead of most comps at the T-4 checkpoint, but the trendline is actually down a bit, making it more difficult to peg the expected pace moving forward 

[vafrow]

T-4 Oppenheimer, Milton, ON

 

I wasn't going to bother tracking this for my theatre, since it wasn't released for sale with other pre-sales in the area. Only when showtimes released for the week ahead last Tuesday. I assumed I wouldn't be able to get much read on it because hardcore fans would go to the nearby IMAX screens.

 

But, sales over the weekend were strong, and it's tracking ahead of what I would assume would be decent comps for it.

 

1.905x of Fast X for $14.3M

0.552x of ATSV for $9.6M

2.105x of Flash for $20.4M

0.374x of Barbie for ???

 

 

[reddevil19]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

Waiting for a few more updates before bringing the charts back out, but the pace on Barbie especially and Oppy to a lesser extent has definitely cooled a bit. Seems to me that there was indeed a post-July 4th catch-up surge plus social media bump (T-11 to T-7)

 

Mind you, both films are still growing very well, ahead of most comps at the T-4 checkpoint, but the trendline is actually down a bit, making it more difficult to peg the expected pace moving forward 

Review bump needed

[Bob-omb]

27 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Review bump needed

Do you think review matters for Barbie? Unless it is something terrible, I dont think it will affect it significantly. If it is too positive it might affect its legs positively but not the OW. For instance, JWD got horrendous reviews and still had an amazing 143M OW but its legs suffered a lot. Personally, if I am not sure of watching something this big I prefer to wait a week since I dont have the NEED to go. Conversely, Shigeru Miyamoto said that he thinks that negative reviews helped Mario because it created some discussion... the truth is that we will never know.

[ZackM]

16 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

 

Barbie Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	82	203	37	117	175
Seats Added	11,724	25,954	4,350	14,991	28,886
Seats Sold	10,857	11,474	11,477	9,910	9,499
7/15/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	416	2,826	132,274	451,292	29.31%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	37	128	295	557
ATP	Gross
$16.20	$2,142,839

 

 

Barbie Blowout Party: Early Access Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days
7/15/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	108	108	19,513	20,668	94.41%
ATP	Gross
$21.15	$412,700

 

 

 

Barbie Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	54	82	203	37	117
Seats Added	7,383	11,724	25,954	4,350	14,991
Seats Sold	16,443	10,857	11,474	11,477	9,910
7/16/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	416	2,880	148,717	458,675	32.42%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	42	157	374	672
ATP	Gross
$16.13	$2,398,805

 

 

Barbie Blowout Party: Early Access Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days
7/16/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	108	108	19,633	20,668	94.99%
ATP	Gross
$21.13	$414,845